钒电池储能

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钒钛股份(000629):钒电池装机大增叠加钢铁用钒好转,钒价有望触底回升
EBSCN· 2025-03-25 08:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The installation of vanadium batteries is expected to increase significantly, coupled with improvements in the demand for vanadium in the steel sector, indicating a potential bottoming out and recovery in vanadium prices [1][3]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to decline by 71.6% to 75.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand in the steel sector and a significant drop in the price of vanadium pentoxide [2]. - The supply of vanadium for energy storage is expected to grow by 35% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a robust outlook for the all-vanadium flow battery storage market [2]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 260 to 300 million yuan for 2024, a decrease from 1,058 million yuan in 2023, largely due to a 25.9% drop in the average price of vanadium pentoxide from 109,000 yuan per ton in 2023 to 80,800 yuan per ton in 2024 [2]. - Revenue is projected to decline from 14,380 million yuan in 2023 to 13,589 million yuan in 2024, representing a 5.5% decrease [5]. Vanadium Price Outlook - The report indicates that the installed capacity of all-vanadium flow batteries is expected to grow by 700% in 2024, with a total grid-connected scale of approximately 440 MW/1,742 MWh [3]. - The demand for vanadium in the steel sector is anticipated to improve following the implementation of mandatory standards for ordinary hot-rolled rebar, which may enhance vanadium-nitrogen demand [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The estimated average price of vanadium pentoxide for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 81,000, 85,000, and 90,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4]. - The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 280 million, 520 million, and 700 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 96, 52, and 39 times [4][5].