马克斯认为，"钟摆永不会停在中点"，市场从来不是理性的直线，而是像永不停止的钟摆，始终在两个极端间来回摆动。 这种比喻，诠释了资产价格在情绪与价值博弈下所天然具有的巨大波动性。 行至尾声的2025年，正是人们领略市场波动势能的一年。 从年初的恒生科技龙头的估值修复，到4月份的对等关税黑天鹅，再到下半年科技股引领的科创两板攻势，市场呈现了一副曲折向上的过程。 这同样是权益资产守得云开见月明的积累，一年多前的"9·24"反转，让市场开始看见乐观；今年的A股结构式复苏，似乎守望中的黎明正在加速到来。 可是市场始终如钟摆一般，从来没有所谓的"均衡稳态"，更多时只能从一个极端的非均衡，折跃到了另一个极端的远非均衡。 作者：资管风铃 1991 年，后来创办了橡树资本的霍华德・马克斯正置身于一场市场的剧震中。 刚刚经历美国储贷危机与海湾战争引发的恐慌性抛售，高收益债等资产被疯狂踩踏至低估区间，转年一季度市场又毫无征兆地迎来情绪反弹。 亲历过"漂亮 50" 等泡沫崩塌，见证了资产价格与投资情绪在贪婪与恐惧间的反复摇摆后，马克斯在当年4月的投资者备忘录中提出了一个形象的总结：钟 摆理论。 即将展开的2026年，市场参与者或许要 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of "second-level thinking" is to engage in contrarian thinking that differs from the prevailing market views [1][35] - The first level of thinking leads to similar conclusions among investors, while achieving superior results requires questioning the reasons for being ahead [36][35] - Investing is fundamentally about responding to the future, with the acknowledgment that risk is unavoidable [36][1] Group 2 - Two key rules are identified: most things are cyclical, and significant loss opportunities arise when others forget this cyclical nature [2][37] - The cyclical nature of markets is attributed to human participation, which introduces variability and emotional responses [3][38] - The extremes of cycles are primarily driven by human emotions and weaknesses, leading to irrational market behaviors [4][39] Group 3 - Investor emotions oscillate between extremes, affecting market pricing and risk attitudes [6][40] - The main risks in investing are categorized as the risk of loss and the risk of missing opportunities [7][42] - Bull and bear markets are described in three stages each, highlighting the psychological shifts among investors [8][44][46] Group 4 - The concept of market inefficiency is introduced, where mispricing creates opportunities for superior performance [14][41] - The psychological factors influencing investment decisions include greed, fear, and the tendency to follow the crowd [15][48] - Recognizing and resisting these psychological influences is crucial for successful investing [50][49] Group 5 - Exceptional investors possess the ability to identify undervalued qualities that are not reflected in prices [54][52] - The process of building a portfolio involves selling weaker investments to make room for stronger ones [55][56] - Identifying "cheap" investments requires a clear understanding of their intrinsic value and market perception [57][58] Group 6 - Patience in waiting for investment opportunities, rather than chasing them, is emphasized as a superior strategy [60][61] - The importance of understanding market cycles is highlighted, with a focus on recognizing the current stage of the cycle [68][67] - The recommendation is to act contrary to the crowd: be aggressive in downturns and cautious in upturns [69][70]