Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3180 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3310 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3230 yuan (-20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Steel prices continued to decline today, with spot trading volume generally weak. The futures market also fell, and speculative sentiment was poor [5] - This week's data shows that steel production recovery has accelerated. Although blast furnaces in Hebei have reduced production due to environmental protection, the impact is limited [5] - Steel demand has continued to recover recently, with faster inventory reduction and increased apparent demand. The drop in temperature has contributed to the demand recovery [5] - The coal mine market has been volatile. Rising thermal coal prices and frequent coal mine accidents have led to short-term supply shortages of coking coal [5] - Plate inventory is high, and in the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is slow, and the number of projects has declined year-on-year. The impact of macro factors is gradually fading, and there is still pressure on the upside [5] - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, and a breakthrough requires more factors [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: Hold the 1-5 positive spread and the long position in the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important News - Affected by large losses, Meijin shut down a 450 blast furnace on October 12, with no复产 date determined. Jianlong plans to conduct rotational maintenance on a 1080 and a 1380 blast furnace starting on November 10. Hongda plans to shut down a 1350 blast furnace in November, and Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380 blast furnace on December 1. Jinguang plans to reduce production at two blast furnaces on a rotational basis from December 1. Steel mills in the Linfen area of Shanxi have conservatively reduced hot metal production by more than 30% [9] - In October 2025, 17,100 new new energy heavy trucks were added nationwide, a 21% decrease from the previous month and a 153% increase from the same period last year [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].