（文章来源：新华财经） 中国钢铁工业协会会长赵民革30日表示，2025年，我国出口钢材1.19亿吨，同比增长7.5%；出口均价 694美元/吨，同比下降8.1%；出口金额826亿美元，同比下降1.3%。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （卓创资讯分析师赵泽泽） 【导语】2025年以来钢材直接出口以及间接出口均受到一定的扰动，但不改整体上行的趋势，面对2026 年出口许可证的新变化，预计未来钢材出口量高位小幅回落概率较大。 出口作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一，对于整体经济的作用不言而喻，而钢材出口同样对于钢材市场 形成明显的影响，钢材出口包含直接出口以及间接出口，这都是钢材需求端不可忽略的一股力量。面对 当前较为严峻的形势，钢材出口很大程度上影响国内钢材市场供需形势，进而影响钢材价格走势，需要 密切关注。 直接出口：量增价跌 据中华人民共和国海关总署统计数据显示，2025年中国出口钢材1.1902亿吨，同比增长7.5%。分析来 看，2025年中国钢材出口"量增价跌"特征显著，国内房地产市场疲软依旧，钢材供需矛盾仍较大，原料 焦煤焦炭、铁矿石等价格相对低位，钢材价格维持相对偏低价格，成本优势明显，热轧板卷出口价格比 欧盟低130美元/吨，比美国低150美元/吨以上。东南亚、非洲、一带一路国家等新兴市场基建投资旺 盛，在本身钢铁供应不完善的情况下，对于钢材进口需求保持高速增长。不过 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].

Group 1: Market Information 1.1 Futures Information 1.1.1 Thread Futures - RB05: Yesterday's price was 3104 yuan/ton, today's is 3111 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2] - RB10: Yesterday's price was 3146 yuan/ton, today's is 3156 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - RB01: Yesterday's price was 3088 yuan/ton, today's is 3082 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [2] 1.1.2 Hot Roll Futures - HC05: Yesterday's price was 3248 yuan/ton, today's is 3263 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [2] - HC10: Yesterday's price was 3271 yuan/ton, today's is 3282 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton [2] - HC01: Yesterday's price was 3220 yuan/ton, today's is 3240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] 1.2 Spot Information 1.2.1 Thread Spot - Shanghai Zhongtian: Today's price is 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Nanjing Xicheng: Today's price is 3400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shandong Shiheng: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Tangshan Tanggang: Today's price is 3100 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday [2] 1.2.2 Hot Roll Spot - Tianjin Hegang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Lecong Rigang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - Shanghai Angang Hot Roll: Today's price is 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3 Spread and Profit Information 1.3.1 Thread - 05 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 79 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 34 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract thread basis: The cheapest delivery product is 108 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract thread surface profit: -147 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract thread surface profit: -103 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract thread surface profit: -116 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] 1.3.2 Hot Roll - 05 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -23 yuan/ton [2] - 10 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is -42 yuan/ton [2] - 01 contract hot roll basis: The cheapest delivery product is 0 yuan/ton [2] - 05 contract hot roll surface profit: 5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 10 contract hot roll surface profit: 23 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] - 01 contract hot roll surface profit: 42 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from yesterday [2] Group 2: Market Analysis 2.1 Core View - Today, the steel futures market oscillated in the morning and rebounded from the bottom in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, and the low - price trading volume continued to improve in the afternoon [6] - Last week, steel production resumed, and the output of both thread and hot roll increased due to the repair of profit levels. The total steel inventory continued to decline, and the decline rate of social inventory was faster than that of factory inventory. Steel is still in the de - stocking cycle, and inventory accumulation is relatively delayed [6] - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials weakened, while the apparent demand for hot roll increased due to the year - end restocking of home appliance enterprises and export impulse. The overall steel demand performance was still acceptable [6] - On the raw material side, coal mine supply decreased slightly, prices stopped falling and stabilized. The loss of import profit supported the iron ore price, and steel costs had support. Recently, the iron ore market started to trade restocking. However, the resumption of hot metal production may accelerate in the future, suppressing the upward space of steel prices [6] - In January, the steel export license management began. After the export impulse in December, short - term exports may decline. With the arrival of winter, the marginal demand for steel weakened, putting pressure on steel prices. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side still needs to wait and see the actual implementation. It is expected that hot metal production will still increase this week. Continue to pay attention to the impact of macro news on the futures market [6] 2.2 Trading Strategies 2.2.1 Unilateral - Maintain an oscillating trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [7] 2.2.2 Arbitrage - It is recommended to short the hot roll - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot roll - thread spread [8] 2.2.3 Options - It is recommended to wait and see [9] Group 3: Important Information - Starting from January 6, the atmospheric diffusion conditions in Handan City have gradually improved, and the Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Response was lifted at 10:00 on January 6, 2026 [10][11] - On January 5, Fuzhou organized the video - connection activity for the start of major projects in the first quarter. A total of 185 major projects started, with a total investment of 120.97 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 43.75 billion yuan [11] Group 4: Related Drawings - The report provides 31 related drawings, including the aggregate price of thread steel, the aggregate price of hot - rolled coil, the basis of different contracts, the spread between different contracts, the surface profit of different contracts, and the cash profit of different regions and processes [14][16][18]

黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 钢材出口的延续性还有多久？ 第一部分 前言概要 第 1 页 共 10 页 黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 第二部分 中国钢材出口韧性仍存 第 2 页 共 10 页 图 1：钢材出口量当月值（万吨） 图 2：钢坯出口量当月值 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 中国:出口数量:钢坯:当月值 | 时间 | 品种 | 内容 | 国家(地区、组 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月11日 | 不锈钢洗涤槽 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月16日 | 热轧碳钢管 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月23日 | 盘条 | 反倾 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the commodity market maintained an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices oscillating in the bottom area. Rebar showed a neutral performance with both supply and demand declining and inventory continuously decreasing. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory only decreased slightly. The decision by South Korea to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production cuts. Macro - level important meetings in early December need continuous tracking [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 50 yuan/ton, the gross profit has a slight increase, and the futures premium is about 3 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [7] - Supply side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.3% for the single week and about 2.0% for the cumulative year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, with a larger - than - expected decline. The hot - rolled coil production is high, and the supply pressure is large [7] - Demand side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.4% for the single week and about 1.4% for the cumulative year. Affected by weak infrastructure and manufacturing demand, the current plate demand is weak [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 400,900 tons, at a high level with significant inventory pressure [9] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price ratios with other products such as rebar and iron ore [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [56][58] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [60][64][70] 4. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the prices of related products such as steel billets [76][78][81] 5. Supply Side - Hot - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, and production in different regions (north, south, and east China) are shown, along with capacity utilization rates [91][93][94] - Cold - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, production in different regions, and capacity utilization rates are presented [99][102][103] - Coated plate production: Weekly production and capacity utilization rates of color - coated and galvanized plates are provided [104][105] 6. Demand Side - Hot - rolled coil consumption: Apparent consumption, cumulative year - on - year growth, and consumption - related data of downstream industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers are shown [108][109][111]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rebar indicates a trend where, in the absence of macroeconomic stories, fundamentals significantly influence futures prices. The current fundamentals for rebar are relatively strong, with good inventory reduction and stable prices across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - Steel inventory reduction is performing well, contributing to a relatively strong fundamental backdrop, which helps black commodities resist declines during overall commodity downturns. It is expected that steel inventory reduction will continue this week [1]. - National prices for steel are holding firm, with northern regions experiencing specification shortages due to actual production cuts by steel mills. Eastern China is also facing specification shortages, although it is not the highest-priced region nationally [1][4]. - The overall inventory is flowing towards higher-priced areas, indicating a market adjustment based on price levels [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - Steel exports remain robust, with total outbound shipments showing a week-on-week decline but a year-on-year improvement. The total outbound shipments were 305.3 million tons, down 26.46 million tons week-on-week, and 292.04 million tons when excluding two ports in Taiwan, down 34.82 million tons [4]. - The outbound shipments from 28 major foreign ports continue to rise week-on-week, with a narrowing of year-on-year negative values [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main rebar futures contract (2601) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, closing higher but facing significant resistance, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls and an overall weak oscillating pattern [5]. - The coal market, particularly coking coal, is under pressure due to the increasing losses among steel mills, with the profitability ratio of steel mills dropping to 38.96%, continuing a 14-week decline. This has led to reduced procurement of coking coal by steel mills [5]. - The price of rebar in Changzhou is reported at 3160 yuan/ton, while the price for wire rod is 3390 yuan/ton, reflecting the current market conditions [6][7].

Core Insights - China's steel exports from January to September reached 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with an average export price of $696.7 per ton [1][2] - The import of iron ore was 918 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with an average import price of $96 per ton [1][2] - Despite challenges such as a slight decline in global manufacturing PMI and new export order indices in contraction, China's steel maintains international competitiveness due to price advantages [2] Export Performance - In September, steel exports amounted to 10.465 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [1][2] - The overall value of China's goods trade from January to September was 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports valued at 19.94 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The price of hot-rolled coil exports is $20-60 per ton lower than major competitors like India, Turkey, and Japan, helping to alleviate domestic supply pressure [2] - The steel industry faces potential export growth challenges due to a high base effect from last year and ongoing trade remedy investigations from multiple countries [2] Downstream Industry Impact - Exports of electromechanical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, a 9.6% increase, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [3] - The automotive and shipbuilding sectors showed strong growth, with automotive exports at 4.95 million units (up 14.8%) and ship exports at 5,226 units (up 23.5%) [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of mid-October, total steel inventory was 15.8226 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% [4] - Steel prices and profits are declining, with rebar, hot-rolled, medium-thick plates, and cold-rolled prices down by 50, 80, 70, and 40 yuan per ton respectively [4] - The profit margins for various steel products are negative, indicating ongoing financial pressure on steel manufacturers [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].