研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 01 月 06 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | 昨日 | | | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3111 | 3104 | 7 | HC05-RB05 | 152 | 144 | 8 | | RB10 | 3156 | 3146 | 10 | HC10-RB10 | 126 | 125 | J | | RB01 | 3082 | 3088 | -6 | HC01-RB01 | 158 | 132 | 26 | | RB01-RB05 | -29 | -16 | -13 | RB10-RB01 | 74 | 58 | 16 | | RB05-RB10 | -45 | -42 | -3 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -147 | -145 | -2 | RB05/105 | 3.88 | 3.89 | -0. ...

黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 钢材出口的延续性还有多久？ 第一部分 前言概要 第 1 页 共 10 页 黑色板块研发报告 钢材专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 第二部分 中国钢材出口韧性仍存 第 2 页 共 10 页 图 1：钢材出口量当月值（万吨） 图 2：钢坯出口量当月值 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 中国:出口数量:钢坯:当月值 | 时间 | 品种 | 内容 | 国家(地区、组 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年1月11日 | 不锈钢洗涤槽 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月16日 | 热轧碳钢管 | 反倾销调查 | 松鲁 | | 2025年1月23日 | 盘条 | 反倾 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the commodity market maintained an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices oscillating in the bottom area. Rebar showed a neutral performance with both supply and demand declining and inventory continuously decreasing. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory only decreased slightly. The decision by South Korea to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production cuts. Macro - level important meetings in early December need continuous tracking [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 50 yuan/ton, the gross profit has a slight increase, and the futures premium is about 3 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [7] - Supply side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.3% for the single week and about 2.0% for the cumulative year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, with a larger - than - expected decline. The hot - rolled coil production is high, and the supply pressure is large [7] - Demand side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.4% for the single week and about 1.4% for the cumulative year. Affected by weak infrastructure and manufacturing demand, the current plate demand is weak [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 400,900 tons, at a high level with significant inventory pressure [9] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price ratios with other products such as rebar and iron ore [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [56][58] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [60][64][70] 4. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the prices of related products such as steel billets [76][78][81] 5. Supply Side - Hot - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, and production in different regions (north, south, and east China) are shown, along with capacity utilization rates [91][93][94] - Cold - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, production in different regions, and capacity utilization rates are presented [99][102][103] - Coated plate production: Weekly production and capacity utilization rates of color - coated and galvanized plates are provided [104][105] 6. Demand Side - Hot - rolled coil consumption: Apparent consumption, cumulative year - on - year growth, and consumption - related data of downstream industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers are shown [108][109][111]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rebar indicates a trend where, in the absence of macroeconomic stories, fundamentals significantly influence futures prices. The current fundamentals for rebar are relatively strong, with good inventory reduction and stable prices across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - Steel inventory reduction is performing well, contributing to a relatively strong fundamental backdrop, which helps black commodities resist declines during overall commodity downturns. It is expected that steel inventory reduction will continue this week [1]. - National prices for steel are holding firm, with northern regions experiencing specification shortages due to actual production cuts by steel mills. Eastern China is also facing specification shortages, although it is not the highest-priced region nationally [1][4]. - The overall inventory is flowing towards higher-priced areas, indicating a market adjustment based on price levels [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - Steel exports remain robust, with total outbound shipments showing a week-on-week decline but a year-on-year improvement. The total outbound shipments were 305.3 million tons, down 26.46 million tons week-on-week, and 292.04 million tons when excluding two ports in Taiwan, down 34.82 million tons [4]. - The outbound shipments from 28 major foreign ports continue to rise week-on-week, with a narrowing of year-on-year negative values [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main rebar futures contract (2601) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, closing higher but facing significant resistance, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls and an overall weak oscillating pattern [5]. - The coal market, particularly coking coal, is under pressure due to the increasing losses among steel mills, with the profitability ratio of steel mills dropping to 38.96%, continuing a 14-week decline. This has led to reduced procurement of coking coal by steel mills [5]. - The price of rebar in Changzhou is reported at 3160 yuan/ton, while the price for wire rod is 3390 yuan/ton, reflecting the current market conditions [6][7].

Core Insights - China's steel exports from January to September reached 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with an average export price of $696.7 per ton [1][2] - The import of iron ore was 918 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, with an average import price of $96 per ton [1][2] - Despite challenges such as a slight decline in global manufacturing PMI and new export order indices in contraction, China's steel maintains international competitiveness due to price advantages [2] Export Performance - In September, steel exports amounted to 10.465 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% [1][2] - The overall value of China's goods trade from January to September was 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports valued at 19.94 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Dynamics - The price of hot-rolled coil exports is $20-60 per ton lower than major competitors like India, Turkey, and Japan, helping to alleviate domestic supply pressure [2] - The steel industry faces potential export growth challenges due to a high base effect from last year and ongoing trade remedy investigations from multiple countries [2] Downstream Industry Impact - Exports of electromechanical products reached 12.07 trillion yuan, a 9.6% increase, accounting for 60.5% of total exports [3] - The automotive and shipbuilding sectors showed strong growth, with automotive exports at 4.95 million units (up 14.8%) and ship exports at 5,226 units (up 23.5%) [3] Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of mid-October, total steel inventory was 15.8226 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.2% [4] - Steel prices and profits are declining, with rebar, hot-rolled, medium-thick plates, and cold-rolled prices down by 50, 80, 70, and 40 yuan per ton respectively [4] - The profit margins for various steel products are negative, indicating ongoing financial pressure on steel manufacturers [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].

Core Insights - The hot-rolled coil prices entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment starting in August, with an average price drop of 46.14 yuan/ton as of August 14 compared to July 30 [1] Price Information - As of August 18, the hot-rolled coil futures main contract closed at 3419.00 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.20%. The highest price reached 3455.00 yuan/ton, while the lowest was 3404.00 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 503,900 contracts [2] Market Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils this week was 1.9654 million tons, an increase of 58,600 tons (+3.07%) compared to the previous week, covering 15 cities and 47 warehouses. In early August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.03 million tons, up 180,000 tons (+2.3%) from the previous month, and up 1.44 million tons (+21.9%) from the beginning of the year, but down 2.18 million tons (-21.4%) year-on-year [3] Regulatory Impact - On August 15, the U.S. government announced an expansion of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, increasing tariffs to 50% on hundreds of derivative products. This expansion is expected to have a negative impact on China's indirect steel exports, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in the hot-rolled coil market in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% tariff set to take effect on August 18, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addition of 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [1]. - The expanded tariff list primarily includes intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, as well as metal structures, containers, and fasteners made from these materials [1]. Group 2: Impact on Exports - In 2024, China's steel export volume is projected to be 111 million tons, with only 470,000 tons directly exported to the U.S., accounting for 0.4% of total exports [2]. - The direct impact of the tariff policy on China's steel exports is expected to be minimal, but indirect exports may be affected due to a high proportion of steel being routed through third countries [2]. - China's steel exports to Vietnam, a significant intermediary for U.S. exports, are projected to be 12.76 million tons in 2024, with Vietnam exporting nearly 2 million tons to the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The tariff policy may lead to a decline in China's steel exports, negatively impacting related products such as steel billets and plates [3]. - The policy could also significantly affect the export of steel-intensive products like construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, which have a high demand for steel, particularly plates [3]. - An estimated 14.5 million tons of steel may be indirectly exported to the U.S. through steel derivatives in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The futures market is expected to react negatively to the tariff policy, with a potential decline in steel prices due to increased inventory levels and weakening demand [4]. - The price spread between different steel products has widened, indicating market volatility, and the tariff policy is likely to have a more direct impact on plate exports [4]. - Despite the tariff policy, the domestic futures market is primarily influenced by macroeconomic and industrial policies, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [4][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the hot-rolled coil plate sector remains strong, with wide fluctuations [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,138 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); trading volume was 1,164,609 lots, and open interest was 2,122,341 lots, down 78,184 lots. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,276 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.09%); trading volume was 454,659 lots, and open interest was 1,580,291 lots, down 19,457 lots [2] - **Spot Price Data**: In the spot market, prices of some regions for both rebar and hot-rolled coil plate remained stable, while some had minor changes. For example, Shanghai's rebar price dropped 10 yuan/ton, and Tianjin's hot-rolled coil plate price dropped 10 yuan/ton, while Guangzhou's hot-rolled coil plate price rose 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 decreased from 87 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton, and that of HC2510 decreased from 27 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had different degrees of changes [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Financial Data**: In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3] - **Steel Export Data**: In June 2025, China exported 967.8 million tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 90.0 million tons (8.5%); the average price was 687.1 dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton (1.5%). From January to June, the cumulative steel export was 5814.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490.8 million tons (9.2%) [3][4] - **Weekly Steel Data**: According to the weekly data on July 10, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 4.42 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.00 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.44 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.84 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.63 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 0.35 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 3.37 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.86 million tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 12.19 million tons [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil plate is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]