研究中心农产品团队 2026/01/08 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/30 | 2160 | 2280 | 2244 | 2440 | 50 | 10 288 | 2750 | 2800 | 179 | -49 | | 2025/12/31 | 2160 | 2280 | 2244 | 2420 | 54 | -10 269 | 2750 | 2800 | 190 | -79 | | 2026/01/05 | 2160 | 2260 | 2230 | 2420 | 36 | 10 287 | 2750 | 2800 | 196 | -79 | | 2026/01/06 | 2160 | 2260 | 2230 | 2410 | 38 | 0 255 | 2750 | 2800 | ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/29 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/12/22 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2410 | 38 | 30 228 | 2750 | 2800 | 208 | -14 | | 2025/12/23 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2400 | 41 | 20 227 | 2750 | 2800 | 218 | -14 | | 2025/12/24 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2390 | 34 | 10 219 | 2750 | 2800 | 211 | -14 | | 2025/12/25 | 2160 | 2230 | 2250 | 2380 | 41 | 0 211 | 2750 | 28 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market shows a mixed trend with supply and demand changes and policy expectations affecting the price movement [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply-demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by downstream demand and supply, with short-term price trends showing some characteristics [4][5] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are influenced by factors such as raw material prices and demand, and their price trends need further observation [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rise in shock today. The apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Iron ore production decreased, downstream demand was insufficient, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts and supply pressure will gradually ease [2] - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels [2] - Spot prices remained firm during the off-season, and there were still expectations of favorable policies at the macro level. The futures market is expected to continue its shock upward trend with possible fluctuations [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened slightly today. Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory continued to increase and approached the annual high [3] - The apparent demand for steel weakened, production declined further, and iron ore demand is expected to weaken further [3] - The macro environment was positive, and there were expectations of policy support ahead of the December important meeting. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - The coke futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded slightly [4] - Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream procurement was mainly on-demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [4] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [4] - The coke futures price was at a premium, and prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded [5] - Coking coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average, and transaction prices mainly decreased. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total coking coal inventory decreased slightly month-on-month [5] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [5] - The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and prices are expected to be dragged down in the short term due to high Mongolian coal imports [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market rose in shock today. Affected by the futures market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased [6] - The follow-up impact of Ghana's shipping volume needs to be monitored. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. If Ghana's supply decreases significantly, prices may rise in the short term [6] - Iron ore production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slowly [6] - Silicon manganese supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market rose in shock today. There were increased expectations of coal supply guarantee, which led to expectations of lower electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - Iron ore production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. Metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand remained resilient [7] - Silicon iron supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [7]

消息面 据外媒报道，今年7月至9月，开发商在澳大利亚核心焦煤产区，昆士兰州的煤炭勘探项目上仅投入了5500万澳元(约合3600万美元)。这一数字同 比下降7.9%，标志着该地区勘探支出连续第五个季度出现下滑，主要归因于疲软的煤价以及高昂的特许权使用费(Royalties)。 根据美国矿山安全与健康管理局(MSHA)数据，第三季度粉河盆地(PRB)煤炭产量同比增长5.8%，达到略高于6000万短吨(约5400万公吨)的水平， 去年同期为5680万短吨。 机构观点 国投安信期货： 市场对下游补库有一定预期，日内价格小幅反弹。焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅增加，目前下游少量按需采购，库存变动不大， 贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情 绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，价格短期大概率维持反弹节奏。 中州期货： 焦炭开启首轮提降全面落地，幅度为50/55元/吨，后续仍有提降预期。需求端本期铁水继续下降，季节性下滑现象延续。焦煤方面，山西部分煤 矿停产，本期供应下滑，处季节性低位，总的来说，上游停产煤矿增多，但前期下游库存偏高，随着 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In Q3, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation. After the non - aluminum restocking ended, the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The main downstream, alumina, had high inventory and low restocking willingness. However, due to the planned alumina capacity expansion in Q1 2025, there might be concentrated restocking in Q4 2024, limiting the downside space of caustic soda. The downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked [3]. - **PVC**: In Q3, the PVC market was in a continuous decline. The supply was at a high level with an obvious surplus, and the demand in the peak season was weak. Although exports alleviated some of the surplus pressure, the cost of raw materials provided bottom - level support. In Q4, the cost support should be focused on, and the downside space during the peak season is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Dynamics**: The price of caustic soda fluctuated widely in Q3. Factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes in the main production areas, and the price of liquid chlorine affected the price. The market was worried about the subsequent supply return and the weakening of downstream demand [9]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and Shandong's caustic soda plants continued to accumulate inventory in Q3. As of September 24, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong increased compared with September 17 [22][28]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina capacity to be put into production is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. In Q4 2024, there may be restocking due to the planned capacity expansion in Q1 2025 [30][33]. - **Non - aluminum**: The printing and dyeing operating rate increased seasonally, but the pre - holiday restocking has ended [52]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August, but the estimated export profit increased again in September [58]. PVC - **Price and Market Dynamics**: In Q3, the PVC futures and spot prices both declined. The supply - demand relationship lacked positive drivers, and the macro - atmosphere was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the market [65]. - **Profit**: The industry's profit declined quarter - on - quarter in Q3, with both the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production methods facing profit pressure [71]. - **Supply**: The production volume was high in Q3, and the overall operating rate decreased recently. Although there were many maintenance enterprises this week, some have gradually resumed production [81][87]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Profiles and Pipes**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure, and the demand was weak. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices", continued to have a negative impact on demand [94]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new construction area showing weak performance [95]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased in Q3, and the total inventory was at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [102]. - **External Market and Export**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened [114][120].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", indicating that the expected price fluctuations are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the next 2 - 12 weeks [7][97] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of military parade production restrictions has ended, and enterprises in the industrial chain are resuming production. Hot metal is expected to return to a high level of 240,000 tons per day, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The performance of peak - season demand and domestic and foreign macro - policies will further intensify the sector's fluctuations [7] - Future market focus will revolve around "downstream inventory replenishment", "peak - season demand", and "overseas interest rate cuts", and attention should be paid to the possibility of the sector rising under the resonance of these three factors [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Due to the military parade production restrictions, hot metal production decreased significantly, but since September 4th, blast furnaces in Tangshan have resumed production intensively. It is expected that the impact on hot metal production reduction will be limited, and it is expected to return to a high level next week. The total iron ore inventory has increased slightly. If downstream inventory replenishment starts before the National Day, the fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The low profit of electric furnaces and tight resources are expected to keep the short - term price oscillating [2] 2. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to remain oscillating under demand support. After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the coking coal price [2] 3. Alloys - For manganese silicon, the prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. In the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on the price, and attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. For silicon iron, the current cost still provides some support, but in the long - term, as the market supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price center will tend to decline, and attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass has weak real - world demand, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. Soda ash still has an oversupply situation. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulating rapidly. After the military parade, hot metal production may recover, and attention should be paid to the release of short - term inventory replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the price [8] - **Iron Ore**: Supply and inventory are stable, and there is an expectation of demand recovery. The fundamentals are supported, and the future price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption has decreased slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate due to low electric - furnace profits and tight resources [10] - **Coke**: After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak - production season, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [11] - **Coking Coal**: After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The arrival of the downstream demand peak season still supports the price [12] - **Glass**: Real - world demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [12] - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading has increased slightly, and it is expected to run with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is weak, and there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The current cost provides some support, but in the long - term, the price center will tend to decline. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].