Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. At the end of the week, the mainstream market planned to increase coke prices, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 19. Supported by costs, this price increase is likely to be implemented next week [1]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage efforts are increasing, and coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamental situation of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and spot prices still have upward momentum, but the futures market is affected by other varieties in the sector and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, domestic coking coal and coke prices fluctuated. The planned price increase of coke in the mainstream market is likely to be implemented next week. In the future, the fundamental situation of coking coal will improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum and the futures market expected to fluctuate [1]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Coking coal total inventory was 2233.95 million tons, up 64.74 million tons (2.98%) from the previous week [3]. - Coke total inventory was 920.21 million tons, up 4.31 million tons (0.47%) from the previous week [3]. - Steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 228.01 million tons, down 1.49 million tons (-0.65%) from the previous week [3]. - Independent coking enterprises' profit per ton of coke was - 65 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (44.44%) from the previous week [3].

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3180 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3310 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3230 yuan (-20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Steel prices continued to decline today, with spot trading volume generally weak. The futures market also fell, and speculative sentiment was poor [5] - This week's data shows that steel production recovery has accelerated. Although blast furnaces in Hebei have reduced production due to environmental protection, the impact is limited [5] - Steel demand has continued to recover recently, with faster inventory reduction and increased apparent demand. The drop in temperature has contributed to the demand recovery [5] - The coal mine market has been volatile. Rising thermal coal prices and frequent coal mine accidents have led to short-term supply shortages of coking coal [5] - Plate inventory is high, and in the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is slow, and the number of projects has declined year-on-year. The impact of macro factors is gradually fading, and there is still pressure on the upside [5] - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, and a breakthrough requires more factors [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: Hold the 1-5 positive spread and the long position in the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important News - Affected by large losses, Meijin shut down a 450 blast furnace on October 12, with no复产 date determined. Jianlong plans to conduct rotational maintenance on a 1080 and a 1380 blast furnace starting on November 10. Hongda plans to shut down a 1350 blast furnace in November, and Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380 blast furnace on December 1. Jinguang plans to reduce production at two blast furnaces on a rotational basis from December 1. Steel mills in the Linfen area of Shanxi have conservatively reduced hot metal production by more than 30% [9] - In October 2025, 17,100 new new energy heavy trucks were added nationwide, a 21% decrease from the previous month and a 153% increase from the same period last year [10]