（来源：新黑金日志） 来源：新黑金日志 略为坚强的小螺纹 2025年11月24日星期一 每次过周末，螺纹都会偏强硬一点。最近的走势证明了一个规律：当宏观没故事的时候，基本面会影响 期货的走势。最近螺纹的基本面还是尚可的。 首先就是钢材去库良好，整体基本面较好，所以在整体商品下跌的时候，黑色抗跌。预计本周的钢材去 库会保持。 其次全国价格都有所坚挺，北方开始缺规格，华东缺规格暂时看不到，主要原因是钢厂真的减产了，华 东是来货太多，需要消耗一段时间，也会出现缺规格，毕竟华东部分钢厂也有减产行为，另外华东也不 是全国最高价。库存是往价格高的地方流动的。 接着出口保持良好 【251123SMM钢材出口】 （图中为剔除台湾两港口后的周度出港）本周SMM口径钢材外贸总出港环比回落，同比偏好（总出港 305.3（-26.46），剔除台湾两港后为292.04（-34.82））；分港口看，主要是大连/曹妃甸/罗泾港等港口 出港增加；京唐/湛江/青岛/锦州/上海/鲅鱼圈/连云港/防城/常熟等港口出港减少 【251123SMM国外钢材出港】 本周国外28个主要港口钢材出港环比继续回升，同比负值收窄 但是焦煤涨跌的核心在供给，只要继 ...

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3180 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3310 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3230 yuan (-20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Steel prices continued to decline today, with spot trading volume generally weak. The futures market also fell, and speculative sentiment was poor [5] - This week's data shows that steel production recovery has accelerated. Although blast furnaces in Hebei have reduced production due to environmental protection, the impact is limited [5] - Steel demand has continued to recover recently, with faster inventory reduction and increased apparent demand. The drop in temperature has contributed to the demand recovery [5] - The coal mine market has been volatile. Rising thermal coal prices and frequent coal mine accidents have led to short-term supply shortages of coking coal [5] - Plate inventory is high, and in the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is slow, and the number of projects has declined year-on-year. The impact of macro factors is gradually fading, and there is still pressure on the upside [5] - Steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, and a breakthrough requires more factors [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: Hold the 1-5 positive spread and the long position in the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important News - Affected by large losses, Meijin shut down a 450 blast furnace on October 12, with no复产 date determined. Jianlong plans to conduct rotational maintenance on a 1080 and a 1380 blast furnace starting on November 10. Hongda plans to shut down a 1350 blast furnace in November, and Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380 blast furnace on December 1. Jinguang plans to reduce production at two blast furnaces on a rotational basis from December 1. Steel mills in the Linfen area of Shanxi have conservatively reduced hot metal production by more than 30% [9] - In October 2025, 17,100 new new energy heavy trucks were added nationwide, a 21% decrease from the previous month and a 153% increase from the same period last year [10]

钢材产业期现日报 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3230 | 3230 | O | 124 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 84 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3340 | -20 | 214 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3166 | 3170 | -4 | ୧4 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3189 | 3199 | -10 | 41 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3106 | 3106 | O | 124 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3330 | 3330 | O | 22 | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3250 | 3260 | -10 | -58 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3340 | -20 | -22 | | | 热卷05合约 | 3318 | 3327 | -g | 22 | | ...

Sector Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook of "oscillation" for various products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [8][9][10]. Core Views - The current fundamentals reflected by yesterday's steel inventory data are better than before, and the prices of sector products showed a trend of first falling and then rising during the day. At night, high hot metal production still supports the demand for furnace materials, but the increasing inventory pressure of iron ore makes its price under pressure, while coke and coking coal prices are relatively strong due to further inventory reduction [2][3]. - Recently, the de - stocking of steel and the high level of hot metal production have temporarily alleviated the market's concerns about the negative feedback of the industrial chain, but further price increases depend on the continuous improvement of fundamentals. There are still optimistic expectations for the upcoming domestic major conference [4]. Summary by Product Steel - Core Logic: Spot market transactions are generally weak, but improved compared to yesterday. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, and iron - water production has slightly decreased at a high level. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products has recovered to some extent, but the recovery height is limited. The inventory of five major steel products has decreased after the festival, but the de - stocking speed is slower than the same period last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is still accumulating [8]. - Outlook: The recovery of post - festival demand is limited, and the steel inventory is at a moderately high level, with fundamental pressure still existing. However, there may be positive signals from the major conference at the end of October, and the cost side still has some support under the high hot - metal background. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [8]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port transactions decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The demand for iron ore still has support under high hot - metal production, but the market's expectation of weakening hot - metal production has increased. The port inventory continued to accumulate [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore still has support, but the overall pressure is not prominent. There are still macro - expectation disturbances before the important conference, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations restricts the upside space. It is expected that the iron - ore price will oscillate in the short term [9]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has recovered to the pre - festival level, and the demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of some electric furnaces after the festival. Steel enterprises have slightly increased their inventory, and the available days of inventory have increased significantly [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the current pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the scrap - steel price will follow the finished - product price in the short term [10]. Coke - Core Logic: The futures price of coke oscillated strongly. The supply has tightened due to factors such as weak coking profits and enterprise maintenance. The demand has weakened slightly with the decline of hot - metal production, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month [12]. - Outlook: Although there is an expectation of weakening hot - metal production, it is still strong in the short term. The coke supply is difficult to increase, and the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. However, due to the weak steel price, the price increase is difficult to implement. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [12]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The coking - coal futures price oscillated strongly. The overall supply is stable, and the import volume from Mongolia has returned to normal. The demand for coking coal still has short - term rigid support, and the overall inventory is at a low level [13]. - Outlook: The incremental space for coal mine production is limited, and the sustainability of Mongolian coal imports remains to be observed. The coking - coal price is expected to be supported in the short term due to strong policy expectations [13]. Glass - Core Logic: The market is worried about the supply disruption in Shahe, and the cost may increase after the gas conversion. The demand has weakened, and the inventory has accumulated. The upstream manufacturers are under pressure to reduce prices [14]. - Outlook: The spot sales are weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply is at a moderately high level, and the demand for heavy soda ash is stable and improving, while the demand for light soda ash has weakened significantly. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the cost support has been strengthened [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the soda - ash price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: The supply pressure is gradually emerging, and some manufacturers' inventories are accumulating, suppressing the price. The cost of port ores is weak, and the demand has some resilience. The production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the price center may decline after the peak season due to pessimistic supply - demand expectations [17]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost - support expectation has been strengthened, and the supply pressure has accumulated. The demand from steel mills and the metal - magnesium industry has different trends [18]. - Outlook: In the short term, peak demand season, policy expectations, and strong costs support the price, but there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season due to the loosening supply - demand relationship [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a downward bias [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal oscillating, coke oscillating with a downward bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: No rating provided [7] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, and exports show resilience. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Sino - US talks [1]. - The iron ore market is also in a cautious state, with prices oscillating weakly. Although short - term demand keeps prices firm, the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. Focus on off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply - side disturbances, with prices oscillating. Coking coal supply may shrink due to factors, but there are still pressure from high inventory and weakening demand. Coke supply is relatively loose and demand is weak [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is affected by environmental inspections, with prices oscillating. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3089 yuan/ton. The futures trading atmosphere was light, and the spot market transactions were average, with 9980 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is continuously destocking, with low raw material prices and good steel mill profits. As the off - season approaches, building material production declines, and consumption may also fall, but low inventory supports prices. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand, and exports are resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price continued to weaken. The main 2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. Spot prices in Tangshan ports decreased slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 949000 tons, a 11.65% increase. Forward spot trading volume was 1.664 million tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global shipments increased slightly this period, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a significant decline in Brazilian shipments. Iron - water production is at a relatively high level, and inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The market has a strong expectation of falling raw material prices, and coke procurement is mainly volume - controlled. Some coking coal mines have reduced production due to inventory pressure and inspections, and the supply of coking coal is loose. After the third - round price cut of coke, coking enterprise profits are further compressed. Imported Mongolian coal has weak downstream procurement and high trader shipment pressure [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening demand. For coke, the situation of relatively loose supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is oscillating, coke is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating due to environmental inspections. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. In ports, the market is stable, with price differentiation. Imported low - calorie coal prices are falling, widening the price gap with domestic coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and the long - term supply is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]