Market Overview - As of January 21, the price of rebar is 3240 CNY/ton, with a decrease in outflow to 36,000 tons, down by 8,000 tons compared to the same period last week [1] - In Hangzhou, rebar inventory increased to 470,000 tons, up by 10,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Changjiang Steel adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials in Hefei, maintaining rebar prices at 3300 CNY/ton, while increasing the price of wire rod and rebar by 20 CNY to 3560 CNY/ton [1] Industry Insights - According to Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures, seasonal demand has weakened market transactions, with a slight decrease in rebar production and a temporary rebound in apparent demand, but overall demand remains weak [2] - New Century Futures reported a slight increase in supply due to delayed resumption of production at some steel mills, with apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 29,300 tons to 826,120 tons [3] - Inventory for five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons to 12,470,100 tons, indicating weak purchasing willingness among traders, which may lead to continued low inventory operations [3] - The current steel market is in a demand off-season with a weak fundamental outlook, leading to continued price fluctuations [2][3]

需求预期悲观，钢材市场延续弱势 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-05-12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 偏空 | | 逻辑 | 5月份为钢材市场需求淡季，小长假之后钢材需 | 本周铁水产量继续回升，且盈利钢厂占比也回升2.59个 | | | 求回落明显。虽然有节假日因素影响，但上半年 | 百分点，短期铁水产量仍将维持高位。不过，鉴于钢材 | | | 顶部应该已经出现。供应方面，因钢厂利润尚可， | 需求回落，铁水产量或已接近顶部区域。发货量和到港 | | | 铁水及成材产量均处于高位，不过随着钢材需求 | 量虽因节假日因素有所回落，但二季度为铁矿石发运 ...