Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed higher on Wednesday and in the night session. It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate with a bullish bias, and the demand recovery situation should be continuously monitored [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed higher, and also closed higher in the night session [1] Important Information - In February, 1062 projects started nationwide with a total investment of about 514.6 billion yuan [1] - Mysteel surveyed 22 manufacturing enterprises in Shandong Province. In February 2026, the scrap steel output of the sample enterprises was 20,300 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons or 26.2% from the previous month, and a decrease of 2,000 tons or 8.69% from the same period last year [1] - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 14 key real estate enterprises from January to February 2026 were 118.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.7%; the total sales in February were 50.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 25.6% [1] - Shagang released the ex-factory prices for the middle of March. The prices of rebar, wire rod coils, and wire rods remained stable. The current ex-factory price of HRB400 Ф16 - 20mm rebar is 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Due to the recent situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore cargo ships originally destined for the Middle East have changed their routes and headed for China. Currently, there have been four ship rerouting incidents [1] Market Logic - Iron ore cargo ships originally bound for the Middle East are now heading to China. Attention should be paid to the impact on iron ore supply [1] - In March, affected by the relatively slow pace of resuming work and production after the Spring Festival and the convening of important meetings, the demand for construction steel products started slowly, showing a moderate recovery trend overall [1] - After the Two Sessions, the molten iron output may increase rapidly, and it is estimated that the incremental demand for iron ore will be significant [1] - The rise in crude oil prices increases the transportation cost of iron ore [1] Trading Strategies - It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate with a bullish bias. The support level for rebar is 3,000 and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180 and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730 and the resistance level is 800 [1] - For single-sided trading, existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils should be continued to hold with stop-loss set [1] - For arbitrage, the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 154. Long hot-rolled coils and short rebar arbitrage orders should be continued to hold. It is recommended to raise the stop-loss to 120 and set the take-profit at over 200 [1]

Group 1: Price Adjustments by Shagang - Shagang adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction steel varieties effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 21 price adjustment [1][3] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф16-20mm) remains stable at 3450 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [1][3] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф6-10mm) is stable at 3470 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is stable at 3560 CNY/ton [4] Group 2: Price Adjustments by Zhongtian Steel - Zhongtian Steel Group adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 20 price adjustment [6] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф18mm) is stable at 3400 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [6] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф8-12mm) is stable at 3700 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is also stable at 3700 CNY/ton [2][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, ending the previous trend of three consecutive rate cuts, which suppresses global liquidity easing expectations [2] - The steel inventory continues to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7% to 12.7851 million tons, while apparent demand has slightly decreased by 0.96% to 8.0174 million tons, indicating a growing supply-demand imbalance that may pressure steel prices in the short term [2][3] - The apparent demand for rebar, a key construction steel product, has significantly declined, weakening the support for spot transactions and prices [3] Group 2 - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has completed ultra-low emission upgrades for 940 million tons of crude steel capacity, while also eliminating over 120 million tons of outdated sintering capacity and 6.8 million tons of small coke oven capacity, enhancing the industry's pollution reduction capabilities [4] - The elimination of outdated capacity and the ultra-low emission upgrades are expected to compress inefficient supply, optimize the supply-demand structure in the steel industry, and reduce disorderly competition, providing long-term support for construction steel prices [4] - Despite short-term pressures from high interest rates and accumulating inventories, the long-term effects of the industry's green transformation are significant, with expectations for stable or slightly rising construction steel prices in the near future [5]

Market Overview - As of January 21, the price of rebar is 3240 CNY/ton, with a decrease in outflow to 36,000 tons, down by 8,000 tons compared to the same period last week [1] - In Hangzhou, rebar inventory increased to 470,000 tons, up by 10,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Changjiang Steel adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials in Hefei, maintaining rebar prices at 3300 CNY/ton, while increasing the price of wire rod and rebar by 20 CNY to 3560 CNY/ton [1] Industry Insights - According to Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures, seasonal demand has weakened market transactions, with a slight decrease in rebar production and a temporary rebound in apparent demand, but overall demand remains weak [2] - New Century Futures reported a slight increase in supply due to delayed resumption of production at some steel mills, with apparent demand for five major steel products rising by 29,300 tons to 826,120 tons [3] - Inventory for five major steel products decreased by 69,100 tons to 12,470,100 tons, indicating weak purchasing willingness among traders, which may lead to continued low inventory operations [3] - The current steel market is in a demand off-season with a weak fundamental outlook, leading to continued price fluctuations [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Shengshi Steel Union International Trade Co., Ltd. has achieved a significant increase in sales volume of construction materials, with a year-on-year growth of 21%, marking a monthly record high for the year, driven by its dual strategy of "Chengdu building materials procurement + direct delivery from manufacturers" [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - The company has reported a total sales volume increase of 21% year-on-year for various construction materials including rebar, wire rod, and high-strength steel [1] - The company has strengthened its product line for key engineering materials, integrating resources from multiple large steel mills to optimize inventory and delivery systems [6] Group 2: Product Offerings - The company provides mainstream rebar grades such as HRB400E and HRB500E, which are widely used in high-rise residential buildings and public projects, ensuring efficient delivery and service [6] - The company has successfully promoted seismic rebar and high-strength rebar in high seismic risk areas, contributing to major projects like the Chengdu Metro and Tianfu International Airport [6] Group 3: Service Enhancements - New processing capabilities such as CNC straightening and automatic cutting have been added, allowing customers to place orders based on drawings and receive finished products, significantly reducing on-site labor and waste [7] - The company has implemented a "direct delivery from manufacturers" model, reducing procurement costs and improving logistics efficiency, achieving next-day delivery for orders placed in Chengdu and surrounding areas [8] Group 4: Market Engagement - The company has conducted seven technical exchange and project matching meetings this month, achieving a customer satisfaction rate of 98.5% and a year-on-year increase in repurchase rate of 22% [9] - The company has optimized its digital marketing strategy to enhance online visibility and relevance in search engines, focusing on high-traffic keywords related to construction materials [9] Group 5: Compliance and Quality - The company adheres to national standards for all rebar products, providing complete material certifications and testing reports, and actively discourages false advertising practices [10] Group 6: Future Plans - The company plans to expand its warehouse by an additional 3,500 square meters, focusing on increasing inventory of large specifications of rebar and seismic rebar [11] - The introduction of an intelligent distribution system is planned, allowing customers to receive recommendations for suitable rebar types based on project specifications [11]

Group 1 - Approximately 8 steel mills adjusted their construction material ex-factory prices today, with Donghua in North China reducing wire rod prices by 5 yuan/ton, while Meijin in North China increased rebar, wire rod, and round bar prices by 30 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the spot price for wire rod from Zhongtian in Hangzhou is 3580 yuan/ton, and from Yonggang is 3550 yuan/ton, with the futures market closing at 3600.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 5.66% increase [2] - National total inventory of construction materials is 7.237 million tons, a decrease of 171,900 tons from the previous week, while the apparent demand increased by 166,700 tons to 4.6747 million tons [3] Group 2 - Recent commodity market trends have positively influenced steel prices; however, demand is gradually weakening, and export expectations may tighten, leading to a volatile price trend for steel [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with a slight decrease in inventory levels, but there is still potential for short-term price rebounds due to positive macroeconomic expectations [5] Group 2 - As of December 10, the national construction material production was 4.1808 million tons, a weekly decrease of 170,100 tons, with total inventory at 7.9469 million tons, down by 284,600 tons [3] - The national construction material transaction volume on December 10 was 114,300 tons, an increase of 23.43% compared to the previous trading day [4] Group 3 - On December 10, Shougang Changzhi adjusted its construction steel prices, reducing rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton and wire rod prices by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex-factory base price for high line HPB300 Φ8-12mm set at 3,240 yuan/ton [1] - On December 11, the main contract for wire rod futures closed at 3,371.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.62%, and intraday trading volume reached 39 lots [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant price increase in steel, with Shagang raising its prices by 220, leading to a factory listing price of 3950, which exceeded market expectations [1] - The adjustment in prices is seen as a response to previous pricing trends, with the last factory price being 3730 and the market average in mid-July reaching 3760, resulting in an average profit of over 80 for traders [1] - The market reaction has been mixed, with some traders still testing the waters despite the price hike, leading to a return to previous closing prices of 3780-3800 in the afternoon [1] Group 2 - Other steel mills have also adjusted their prices, with Yonggang increasing rebar prices by 170 and other products by 220, while Zhongtian raised rebar prices by 220 and other products by 250, maintaining a lower order ratio compared to the previous period [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of rebar indicates a trend where, in the absence of macroeconomic stories, fundamentals significantly influence futures prices. The current fundamentals for rebar are relatively strong, with good inventory reduction and stable prices across the country [1][4]. Group 1: Market Fundamentals - Steel inventory reduction is performing well, contributing to a relatively strong fundamental backdrop, which helps black commodities resist declines during overall commodity downturns. It is expected that steel inventory reduction will continue this week [1]. - National prices for steel are holding firm, with northern regions experiencing specification shortages due to actual production cuts by steel mills. Eastern China is also facing specification shortages, although it is not the highest-priced region nationally [1][4]. - The overall inventory is flowing towards higher-priced areas, indicating a market adjustment based on price levels [1]. Group 2: Export Performance - Steel exports remain robust, with total outbound shipments showing a week-on-week decline but a year-on-year improvement. The total outbound shipments were 305.3 million tons, down 26.46 million tons week-on-week, and 292.04 million tons when excluding two ports in Taiwan, down 34.82 million tons [4]. - The outbound shipments from 28 major foreign ports continue to rise week-on-week, with a narrowing of year-on-year negative values [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main rebar futures contract (2601) has shown a fluctuating upward trend, closing higher but facing significant resistance, indicating a lack of confidence among bulls and an overall weak oscillating pattern [5]. - The coal market, particularly coking coal, is under pressure due to the increasing losses among steel mills, with the profitability ratio of steel mills dropping to 38.96%, continuing a 14-week decline. This has led to reduced procurement of coking coal by steel mills [5]. - The price of rebar in Changzhou is reported at 3160 yuan/ton, while the price for wire rod is 3390 yuan/ton, reflecting the current market conditions [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent rebound followed by a decline, influenced by various production and regulatory factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][3][7]. Price Movement Factors Positive Factors - In October, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% [3]. - China's automobile production in October reached 3.279 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3]. - Chinese shipbuilding companies captured over 74% of the global container ship order market [3]. - The third round of the fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been fully implemented [3]. Negative Factors - In October, China's steel plate exports were 5.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% [3]. - Land use rights transfer revenue for the first ten months was 24.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [4]. - China's steel billet exports in October decreased by 21% compared to September, turning from positive to negative year-on-year [4]. Regulatory Impact - On November 21, 2025, the U.S. President approved a two-year exemption from coking oven regulations, which is expected to boost steel production as approximately 70% of steel production relies on metallurgical coke [3][5]. - The exemption aims to ensure uninterrupted operation of critical coke production to support national security without incurring high compliance costs [5]. Market Conditions - The market is currently cautious, with a slight increase in construction activity in northern regions and stable operations in southern areas, leading to a minor increase in funding availability [7]. - The fourth round of coke price increases has negatively impacted long-process steel companies, leading to a decrease in blast furnace operating rates [7]. - The steel market is expected to experience narrow price adjustments in the upcoming week, with a projected fluctuation range of -30 to -40 yuan per ton [7]. Price Adjustments - Chongqing Yonghang has lowered prices by 20 yuan per ton for various steel products, including high-line and rebar [8][9]. - Other companies like Maanshan Steel and Changjiang Steel have maintained their previous prices for certain products, indicating a mixed pricing strategy in the market [10][11].