投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 1.21%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应回升，而需求季节性改善，供需双增局面下螺纹基本面并未好 转，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计后续走势延续弱势寻 底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.85%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷高供应、高库存局面未变，且需求隐忧未退，基本面并无实质 性好转，产业逻辑主导下热卷承压走弱，关注钢厂限产情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.26%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供应偏高，而需求持续走弱，矿石基本面表现不佳，现实逻 辑主导下高估值矿价继续承压走弱，关注钢材表现情况。 作者声明 本人具 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined by 0.96% daily, with increasing volume and open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relative positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that rebar will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated downward, recording a 0.60% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the situation of high supply and high inventory of hot - rolled coils remains unchanged, and the demand concerns have not subsided. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. Once the market operation logic switches to the industrial end, hot - rolled coils are prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined weakly, recording a 1.82% daily decline, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the fermentation of positive factors supports the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the supply of iron ore is high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [4]. 3. Summaries by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Real estate**: In the first 10 months of 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 289.671 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. In October, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. The overall market continued to bottom out. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises in the first 10 months was 783.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, but the growth rate narrowed compared with the first 9 months [6]. - **Heavy - truck market**: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a year - on - year increase of about 40% and a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved seven consecutive months of year - on - year growth, with an average growth rate of 39% from April to October [7]. - **Iron ore projects**: In October 2025, 9 iron - ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province, including 3 iron ore mines, 4 enterprise investment project filings or [changes], 1 enterprise and institution industrial technological transformation project filing [change], and 1 mine development project (non - metal, non - coal mine) filing [8]. Spot Market - **Rebar**: The national average price was 3,247 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton [9]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The national average price was 3,355 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 107.40 US dollars/ton, down 0.30 US dollars/ton [9]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,079 | - 0.96 | 1,150,576 | 164,721 | 1,919,017 | 39,567 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,295 | - 0.60 | 512,951 | 81,842 | 1,422,835 | - 47,384 | | Iron ore | 782.5 | - 1.82 | 406,726 | 100,948 | 534,930 | - 5,350 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Includes weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing historical data from multiple years [14][16][20][23]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Covers the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [19][22][24]. - **Steel mill production**: Involves the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit - making ratio of steel mills, with historical data from multiple years [28][29][31]. 后市研判 - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 55,200 tons, and the inventory is high. The demand has improved seasonally, but it is still at a low level in recent years, and the improvement space is limited. With the cost support from strong raw materials, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [35]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 11,000 tons, and the inventory reduction at a high level is limited. The demand is okay, but there are still concerns. Once the market logic switches to the industrial end, it is prone to pressure and weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [35]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The demand is declining, and the supply pressure is increasing. The over - valued iron ore price will be under pressure to fall. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, building material prices first rose and then declined. The average national rebar price decreased by 10 yuan/ton week-on-week. Terminal demand remained weak, and inventory accumulation increased, limiting the price rebound. On the supply side, driven by high profits, resumption and production increase continued. On the demand side, the market gradually calmed down, expectations cooled, and actual terminal demand weakened [2][4]. - In the short term, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased. With the cooling of the speculation sentiment in the "double - coke" futures, steel prices may fluctuate weakly. Considering the possible production restrictions in northern steel mills at the end of August and beginning of September, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market may ease, and the price fluctuation range may be limited. The long - short game remains intense [28]. Summary of Each Section 1. This Week's Market Review - Building material prices first rose and then declined. The average national rebar price decreased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. Terminal demand was weak and inventory accumulation increased, limiting the price rebound. The supply side continued to resume production and increase production due to high profits, while the demand side cooled down and actual terminal demand weakened [2][4]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks. The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [6]. - On August 15, US President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine issue and Russia - US relations. The meeting was considered "constructive" and "fruitful" but no agreement was reached [6]. - Nine departments issued an implementation plan for the loan interest subsidy policy for service industry business entities, with a subsidy period of no more than 1 year and an annual subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point [6]. - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28.8229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0%. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [7]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%, and the new RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan (the first negative growth since July 2005) [7]. - In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month; 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month; 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons, a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a 4.7% month - on - month increase; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a 0.7% month - on - month increase [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 102,300 tons, lower than last week's 103,400 tons. Due to the hot and rainy weather and the ongoing adjustment of the real estate market, the weak demand for steel is difficult to change, and the supply - demand pressure has increased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - In the short term, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market has increased, and steel prices may fluctuate weakly. Considering the possible production restrictions in northern steel mills at the end of August and beginning of September, the supply - demand pressure may ease, and the price fluctuation range may be limited. The long - short game remains fierce. - From the perspective of the market, black commodities showed mixed performance on Friday. The main contracts of coking coal, coke and hot - rolled coil closed slightly higher, while rebar and iron ore closed slightly lower. The main rebar 10 contract closed at 3188, down 13 points on the day, 25 points lower than last week's closing. The weekly settlement price was 3222, up 7 points from last week. The latest position was 1.6117 million lots, an increase of 0.5 million lots compared with last Friday. Overall, the position change this week was not obvious. After 2.1 billion yuan of funds fled from coking coal for two consecutive days, rebar also had a certain position reduction. Both long and short sides were unable to launch a large - scale market, and some funds flowed to the 01 contract and other varieties. Currently, the weekly line shows obvious oscillation characteristics, running in a state of "pressure above and support below" for two consecutive weeks. Next week, 3200 can be used as the long - short demarcation point. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [28].