Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of rebar and hot-rolled coil, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength analysis [1][3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing low-level fluctuations due to market information disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 decreased by 0.87% and 0.83% respectively. The trading volume of RB2605 was 974,336 lots, and the position increased by 4,982 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 488,186 lots, and the position increased by 42,139 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in most regions remained stable or decreased slightly. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 and HC2605 increased by 9 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between different contracts also showed certain changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [1] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 11th, the production of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.6 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 22.73 tons. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 24.31 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 3.26 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 33.5 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 13.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.89 tons, and the total decreased by 24.45 tons [1][3] - In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous month. The inventory has been continuously decreasing [3] - In October 2025, the national production of crude steel was 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The daily production was 2.3226 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2%. The production of pig iron was 65.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%. The daily production was 2.1145 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4%. The production of steel was 118.64 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. The daily production was 3.8271 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.6% [3] - According to customs statistics, in October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 45,000 tons or 8.2% from the previous month. The average price was $1,593.0 per ton, a decrease of $31.1 per ton or 1.9% from the previous month [3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment [3][4]

Overall Situation of Steel Products Import and Export - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 10.0%, with an average export price of $679.1 per ton, down 2.7% from the previous month [2][3] - Cumulatively, from January to September, China exported 87.955 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with an average export price of $696.7 per ton, down 9.5% year-on-year [2][3] - In September, China imported 548,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 9.7%, with an average import price of $1,623.1 per ton, down 1.8% from the previous month [2][3] - Cumulatively, from January to September, China imported 4.532 million tons of steel, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, with an average import price of $1,692.3 per ton, up 1.1% year-on-year [2][3] Export Situation of Steel Products - In September, the export volume of major steel varieties increased, with significant growth in hot-rolled sheets and coated sheets [5] - Exports to ASEAN, African Union, and Gulf Cooperation Council countries saw notable increases, while exports to the European Union decreased [5][10] - Among 22 major steel varieties, only three showed a month-on-month decline in export volume, while several key varieties saw increases of over 10% [7][8] Import Situation of Steel Products - In September, the import scale of steel continued to rise, with a stable overall import structure [12][17] - 15 out of 22 major steel varieties saw a month-on-month increase in import volume, with significant growth in cold-rolled wide steel strips [15] - The import volume from major countries, except Germany, generally increased month-on-month [17] Future Outlook - The export volume of steel and steel billets remains high, with September's monthly steel export volume exceeding 10 million tons [18] - Exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East are increasing, but competition in these markets is intensifying [18] - Emerging economies are imposing trade restrictions on Chinese steel products, prompting recommendations for exporters to manage their export pace and protect their rights [18]