Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The overall situation of coke is biased towards a volatile trend, with a short - term continuation of the rebound. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, at a 7 - and - a - half - month high, with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] - The profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 92 yuan/ton [1] - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% month - on - month and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons month - on - month [1] - Near the Spring Festival, the supply of upstream coking coal is expected to decline. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] News - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival holiday situation of 523 coking coal mines across the country. Currently, there are 395 mines in production, with a total production capacity of 757 million tons. A total of 388 mines have plans to stop production during the holiday, with a production capacity of 744 million tons affected, resulting in an impact on raw coal production of 1.868 million tons [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen the comprehensive supervision of key product quality and rectify the "involution - style" competition [2] Supply - Demand Pattern - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by the cost of upstream coking coal, the demand of downstream steel, and the guidance of macro - policies. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand [2] - Downstream steel mills have successively announced shutdown and maintenance plans during the Spring Festival. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the demand for coke further declines [2] - However, coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There have been frequent news about fiscal and monetary policies at the macro level, and there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand side of rebar and hot-rolled coil has poor expectations and will fluctuate weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,046 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.42%); the closing price of HC2510 was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.75%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,208,627 lots, with a position of 2,158,221 lots, a decrease of 16,417 lots; the trading volume of HC2510 was 437,643 lots, with a position of 1,368,284 lots, an increase of 15,088 lots [3] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [3] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 134 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, HC2601 - RB2601, and the spot coil - rebar spread all changed to varying degrees [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons [3] - In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.199 million tons, a 0.3% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.82 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.24 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.124 million tons, a 1.9% increase in daily output month - on - month [3] 3. Steel Union Weekly Data (May 22) - **Output**: Rebar output increased by 4.95 million tons, hot - rolled coil output decreased by 6.3 million tons, and the total output of five major varieties increased by 4.09 million tons [5] - **Total Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 15.65 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.38 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 32.12 million tons [5] - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.16 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 16.47 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 9.2 million tons [5] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot - rolled coil is 0 [5]