【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 9 日独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 6.04%至 86.07 万吨， 钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.27%至 645.73 万吨，港口焦炭库存回升至 249.1 万吨，焦 炭综合库存增加 2.22 万吨至 980.9 万吨，为 3 个月高位，同比降逾 1%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利-45 元/吨；山西准一级焦平 均盈利-30 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 17 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-86 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 9 元/吨。 下游需求，247 家钢厂高炉开工率环增 0.37%至 79.31%，高炉炼铁产能利用 率环增 0.78%至 86.04%，钢厂盈利率减少 0.44%至 37.66%，日均铁水产量则续增 2.07 万吨至 229.5 万吨，创一个月高位，同比去年增加 5.13 万吨或 2.29%。 上游焦煤，煤矿炼焦煤库存延续微增，港口库存增加 551.96 万吨，独立焦 企炼焦煤库存增至 1071.68 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存减少 797.73 万吨。炼焦煤综 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 7 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 12 月 31 日，单独立焦企焦炭库存环比回落 0.69%至 91.6 万吨，而钢厂焦炭库存累增 0.28%至 643.99 万吨，港口焦炭库存小降至 243.09 万吨，焦炭综合库存微增 0.04 万吨至 978.68 万吨，同比增幅缩窄至 2.93%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-14 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈 利微增至 1 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利增至 34 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利 小降至-67 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 43 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材短期价格震荡运行，表需处在季节性萎缩阶段；247 家钢厂 钢厂盈利率回升至 38.1%，开工率及产能利用率同环比均有不同增幅，日均铁水 产量环比上周增加 0.85 万吨至 227.43 万吨，同比去年增加 2.23 万吨。 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：短期延续反弹 期货盘面：05 焦炭开盘 1650，收盘 1773，今天涨停，增仓 1679 手，短期 延续反弹，关注 20/40 天均线支撑和前高附近压力。 现货市场： 贸易现汇出库： 准一级(湿熄)焦现货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of coke and coking coal have shown a fluctuating upward trend since early July, driven by a stable and improving supply-demand balance, with investors advised to look for buying opportunities during price corrections [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The majority of coke is used in the iron-making process of steel production, making the demand for coke closely linked to pig iron output and national blast furnace capacity utilization rates. In the first half of the year, national pig iron production reached 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating expanding demand for coke [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in 163 steel mills has been steadily rising, from a low of 72.67% at the end of February to a peak of 79.77%. Although there was a slight decline in July due to compressed profits, the impact on coke demand was limited, with the utilization rate recovering to 79.49% by the end of July [2]. Supply Side Changes - In the first half of the year, national coke production was 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, indicating a slight contraction in supply. The capacity utilization rates of 100 coke ovens have remained stable, ranging from 79.81% to 80.00% over the past four weeks [3]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of July, the total inventory of independent coke plants was 470,100 tons, up from 385,900 tons at the end of June. The total inventory at four ports was 2.65 million tons, down from 3.005 million tons before the Spring Festival. The inventory levels at 110 steel mills also increased to 4.9228 million tons from 4.6382 million tons at the end of June [4]. - The accumulation of inventory is not significant, with the increase in upstream and steel mill inventories being offset by a decrease in port inventories. This limited accumulation suggests a minimal negative impact on prices [4]. Price Dynamics - The fundamentals of the coal and coke market remain strong, providing upward price support. However, the current futures prices may be overvalued, as the coke 2009 contract is trading above 2,000 yuan per ton, while the port spot price is around 1,900 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The ratio of coke to coking coal contracts is currently at 1.63, indicating a historically high level of profitability in the coking sector, which also suggests potential overvaluation of coke futures prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of coke and coking coal have shown a fluctuating upward trend since early July, driven by a stable and improving supply-demand structure, with investors advised to look for buying opportunities during price corrections [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The majority of coke is used in the iron-making process of steel production, making it essential to monitor changes in pig iron output and national blast furnace capacity utilization rates. In the first half of the year, national pig iron output reached 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating expanding demand for coke [2]. - National blast furnace capacity utilization rates have been rising, from a low of 72.67% at the end of February to a peak of 79.77%. Although there was a slight decline in July due to compressed profits, the impact on coke demand was limited, with rates rebounding to 79.49% by the end of July [2]. Supply Side Changes - In the first half of the year, national coke production was 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, indicating a slight contraction in supply. The capacity utilization rates of 100 coke ovens remained stable, ranging from 79.81% to 80.00% over the past four weeks [3]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of July, independent coke plant inventories totaled 470,100 tons, up from 385,900 tons at the end of June. Port inventories were at 2.65 million tons, down from 3.005 million tons before the Spring Festival. Steel mill inventories also increased to 4.9228 million tons from 4.6382 million tons [4]. - The accumulation of inventory is not significant, with the increase in upstream and steel mill inventories being offset by a decrease in port inventories. This limited accumulation has a minimal negative impact on prices [4]. Futures Market Insights - The fundamentals of the coal and coke market remain strong, providing upward price support. However, the current futures prices may be overvalued, as the coke 2009 contract is trading above 2,000 yuan per ton, while the port spot price is around 1,900 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The ratio of coke to coking coal contracts is at 1.63, indicating a historically high level of profitability in the coking sector, which also suggests potential overvaluation of coke futures prices [6].