从绝对量看，当前独立焦化厂和钢厂的焦炭库存高于往年同期，而港口库存低于往年同期，库存总量则 高于往年同期;从变化量看，上游环节和钢厂库存较6月末均出现增长，而港口库存有所消耗。库存出现 一定积累的原因有二：其一，在6月焦炭现货价格连续六轮上涨的背景下，钢厂调整了采购节奏;其二， 7月，高炉出现一定减产。不过，当前，焦炭库存的积累尚不明显，对价格的利空有限。 绝大部分的焦炭被用于钢铁生产的高炉炼铁环节，研判焦炭需求变化，必须关注生铁产量变化和全国高 炉产能利用率变化。全国生铁产量是月度数据，可以反映中期的需求变化，高炉产能利用率是周度数 据，可以反映短期的需求变化。 数据显示，今年上半年，全国生铁产量为43268.1万吨，同比增长2.2%，证明焦炭需求处于扩张状态。 从高炉产能利用率看，全国163家钢厂高炉产能利用率持续上升，从2月底的低点72.67%最高上升至 79.77%，这一数据与生铁产量数据相互验证。 7月，由于高炉利润被明显压缩，高炉产能利用率一度下降，但降幅并不大。7月中旬，全国163家钢厂 高炉产能利用率最低降至78.63%，这样的降幅对焦炭的需求影响有限。7月最后一周，全国163家钢厂 高炉产能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of coke and coking coal have shown a fluctuating upward trend since early July, driven by a stable and improving supply-demand structure, with investors advised to look for buying opportunities during price corrections [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The majority of coke is used in the iron-making process of steel production, making it essential to monitor changes in pig iron output and national blast furnace capacity utilization rates. In the first half of the year, national pig iron output reached 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating expanding demand for coke [2]. - National blast furnace capacity utilization rates have been rising, from a low of 72.67% at the end of February to a peak of 79.77%. Although there was a slight decline in July due to compressed profits, the impact on coke demand was limited, with rates rebounding to 79.49% by the end of July [2]. Supply Side Changes - In the first half of the year, national coke production was 43.2681 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, indicating a slight contraction in supply. The capacity utilization rates of 100 coke ovens remained stable, ranging from 79.81% to 80.00% over the past four weeks [3]. Inventory Levels - As of the end of July, independent coke plant inventories totaled 470,100 tons, up from 385,900 tons at the end of June. Port inventories were at 2.65 million tons, down from 3.005 million tons before the Spring Festival. Steel mill inventories also increased to 4.9228 million tons from 4.6382 million tons [4]. - The accumulation of inventory is not significant, with the increase in upstream and steel mill inventories being offset by a decrease in port inventories. This limited accumulation has a minimal negative impact on prices [4]. Futures Market Insights - The fundamentals of the coal and coke market remain strong, providing upward price support. However, the current futures prices may be overvalued, as the coke 2009 contract is trading above 2,000 yuan per ton, while the port spot price is around 1,900 yuan per ton [5][6]. - The ratio of coke to coking coal contracts is at 1.63, indicating a historically high level of profitability in the coking sector, which also suggests potential overvaluation of coke futures prices [6].