Report Overview - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Report Title: "Rebar: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market; Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment disturbance, wide - range shock in the futures market" [2][3] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The rebar and hot - rolled coil markets are affected by market sentiment, resulting in wide - range shocks in the futures market [2][3] Market Data Summary Futures Market - RB2605 closing price: 3,111 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%; trading volume: 841,618 lots, open interest: 1,562,948 lots, an increase of 14,597 lots [3] - HC2605 closing price: 3,263 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; trading volume: 439,684 lots, open interest: 1,274,085 lots, a decrease of 20,441 lots [3] Spot Market - Rebar: Shanghai price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,280 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,310 yuan/ton; Beijing price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,130 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,490 yuan/ton [3] - Hot - rolled coil: Shanghai price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton; Hangzhou price rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton; Tianjin price dropped 10 yuan/ton to 3,160 yuan/ton; Guangzhou price remained unchanged at 3,250 yuan/ton; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,930 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - RB2605 basis: 169 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; HC2605 basis: - 3 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread: - 29 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; HC2601 - HC2605 spread: 23 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; HC2601 - RB2601 spread: 158 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; HC2605 - RB2605 spread: 152 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; Spot coil - rebar spread: - 118 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [3] Macro and Industry News - December 31st Steel Union weekly data: Rebar production increased by 3.83 million tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.97 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 18.36 million tons; Rebar inventory decreased by 12.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.26 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 25.84 million tons; Rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.24 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 3.73 million tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 7.41 million tons [4] - In mid - December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 18.45 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.845 billion tons, a 1.3% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 16.81 billion tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.681 billion tons, a 1.9% decrease in daily output; 18.03 billion tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.803 billion tons, a 1.4% decrease in daily output. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.01 billion tons, a 8.6% increase compared to the previous ten - day period [5] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [5] - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 billion tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period, showing a continuous downward trend [5] - In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a 8.2% decrease compared to the previous month; the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a 1.9% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 billion tons, a 11.9% decrease compared to the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot - rolled coil trend intensity: 0 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Iron and Steel Association reports a significant decline in steel production for 2025, indicating a downward trend in the industry with various production metrics showing year-on-year and month-on-month decreases [1]. Production Data Summary - In 2025, the total crude steel production is projected to be 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily production rate of 2.3226 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.2% [1]. - The production of pig iron is expected to reach 65.55 million tons, down 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4% [1]. - Steel production is forecasted at 118.64 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily production of 3.8271 million tons, which is a month-on-month decline of 7.6% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to October, crude steel production totaled 818 million tons, down 3.9% year-on-year, with an average daily production of 2.6904 million tons [1]. - Cumulative pig iron production for the same period is 711 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with an average daily output of 2.34 million tons [1]. - Cumulative steel production from January to October reached 1.218 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with an average daily production of 4.0052 million tons [1].

Group 1 - In October, China's crude steel production reached 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.32 million tons, down 5.2% month-on-month [1] - The production of pig iron was 65.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.11 million tons, down 4% month-on-month [1] - Steel production totaled 118.64 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.83 million tons, down 7.6% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.69 million tons [1] - The cumulative production of pig iron was 711 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons [1] - The cumulative steel production was 1.218 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.01 million tons [1] Group 3 - In October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 63.69 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%, with a daily output of 2.05 million tons, up 1.9% month-on-month [1] - The production of pig iron was 59.28 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, with a daily output of 1.91 million tons, up 1.8% month-on-month [1] - Steel production was 66.20 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, with a daily output of 2.14 million tons, down 3.2% month-on-month [1] Group 4 - From January to October, key steel enterprises cumulatively produced 682 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.24 million tons [2] - The cumulative production of pig iron was 616 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.03 million tons [2] - The cumulative steel production was 696 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.29 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in China's steel production in October 2025, with significant year-on-year decreases in crude steel and pig iron output, while steel product output shows a slight decline [1] Group 1: Production Data - In October 2025, China's crude steel production reached 72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% [1] - Pig iron production in October 2025 was 65.55 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9% [1] - Steel product output in October 2025 totaled 118.64 million tons, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [1] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production amounted to 817.87 million tons, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The pig iron production for the same period was 711.37 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1] - Steel product output from January to October 2025 increased to 1,217.59 million tons, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1]

Core Insights - The China Iron and Steel Association reported a decrease in crude steel production for key enterprises in late August 2025, with a total output of 21.41 million tons, reflecting an average daily production of 1.947 million tons, which is an 8.0% decrease month-on-month [1] - Pig iron production also saw a decline, totaling 20.10 million tons with an average daily output of 1.827 million tons, marking a 5.1% decrease month-on-month [1] - In contrast, steel products production increased to 23.52 million tons, with an average daily output of 2.138 million tons, showing a 4.4% month-on-month growth [1] Production Estimates - National daily crude steel production is estimated at 2.42 million tons, representing a 9.5% decrease month-on-month [2] - Daily pig iron production is estimated at 2.20 million tons, reflecting a 5.3% decrease month-on-month [2] - Daily steel products production is estimated at 4.15 million tons, indicating a slight 0.6% decrease month-on-month [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand side of rebar and hot-rolled coil has poor expectations and will fluctuate weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,046 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.42%); the closing price of HC2510 was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.75%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,208,627 lots, with a position of 2,158,221 lots, a decrease of 16,417 lots; the trading volume of HC2510 was 437,643 lots, with a position of 1,368,284 lots, an increase of 15,088 lots [3] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Beijing remained unchanged; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [3] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 134 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 increased by 11 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, HC2601 - RB2601, and the spot coil - rebar spread all changed to varying degrees [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons [3] - In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.199 million tons, a 0.3% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.82 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 0.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 21.24 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.124 million tons, a 1.9% increase in daily output month - on - month [3] 3. Steel Union Weekly Data (May 22) - **Output**: Rebar output increased by 4.95 million tons, hot - rolled coil output decreased by 6.3 million tons, and the total output of five major varieties increased by 4.09 million tons [5] - **Total Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased by 15.65 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 7.38 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 32.12 million tons [5] - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.16 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 16.47 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 9.2 million tons [5] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot - rolled coil is 0 [5]