五矿证券近日发布有色月跟踪：刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的量预 计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一定的 增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性短 缺。 以下为研究报告摘要： 刚果金配额落地，年度出口量不足10万吨。刚果（金）于10月10日出台了新的配额管理制度以及配额方 案，以取代之前的钴出口禁令，2026/2027年各出口9.66万吨，其中8.7万吨为基础配额，9,600吨为 ARECOMS战略配额。洛阳钼业、嘉能可、欧亚资源等矿企获得主要配额，当地钴冶炼厂无直接配额。 供需刚性短缺，价格或再上新台阶。刚果金配额锁死全球钴原料供应，预计锐减至20万吨，结合回收的 量预计，2025年全球钴元素供应为20.6万吨，2026-2027年分别为21.4、21.6万吨；全球钴消费仍维持一 定的增速，根据历史增速测算，我们预计2026/2027年全球钴消费将达到22.1和23.1万吨，钴将面临刚性 短缺。 全产业链库存持续消耗，未来两年刚果金以外地 ...

智通财经APP获悉，五矿证券发布研报称，刚果（金）于10月10日出台新的配额管理制度，规定 2026/2027年钴出口量各为9.66万吨，主要配额分配给洛阳钼业（03993）、嘉能可（GLNCY.US）等矿 企，当地冶炼厂无直接配额。同时，全产业链库存持续消耗，当前钴产品价格出现倒挂，预计仍有补涨 空间。此外，美国国防部计划重启价值5亿美元的钴储备采购招标，预计2026年2月初授标，进一步凸显 钴的战略地位。 以氯化钴为例，我国库存天数从4月份的46天降至当前的39天。而下游冶炼厂中间品库存消耗量最大， 从5月份的4.5万吨降至当前1.7万吨，5个月去库量达到2.8万吨。合计来看，5个月内综合冶炼厂中间品 库存、电钴社会库存、硫酸钴库存，累计去库量达到3.2万吨，月均0.64万吨。 短期钴产品价格倒挂，钴价再上新台阶的trigger 钴产品价格倒挂，电钴具备经济性。2025年刚果金首次提出钴原料禁止出口以来，钴中间品CIF中国平 均价格从5.95美元/磅持续上涨至当前24.15美元/磅，涨幅达到306%。中国钴产品价格电钴现在报价40.2 万元/吨、硫酸钴折金属价43.2万元/吨、四钴折金属47.4万元/吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt supply chain is undergoing significant changes due to the lifting of the export ban by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the implementation of an export quota system, which is expected to lead to a substantial increase in cobalt prices in the coming years [2][4][10]. Export Ban and Quota Management - The DRC announced that the cobalt export ban, which lasted for nearly eight months, will be lifted on October 16, with an annual export quota management system introduced [2][3]. - The export cap for the remainder of 2025 is set at 18,125 tons, with future quotas for 2026 and 2027 being significantly lower than the country's production capacity [3][4]. - The quota system is based on the export performance of companies in 2022, 2023, and 2024, with penalties for non-compliance [3][4][7]. Price Impact and Market Dynamics - The lifting of the export ban and the introduction of quotas are expected to tighten global cobalt supply, leading to a projected shortage of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][10]. - Cobalt prices have already doubled this year, with the latest price for electrolytic cobalt in China reaching 349,500 yuan per ton [9]. - Analysts predict that the combination of supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics will further drive up cobalt prices, potentially exceeding 400,000 yuan per ton [9][10]. Strategic Implications for Companies - Major cobalt producers like Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore are set to receive significant export quotas, but these may still fall short of their production capacities [10]. - The DRC government aims to control global cobalt prices through flexible supply adjustments, which could benefit companies with operations in Indonesia and those holding mining rights in the DRC [10].