行业报告 | 行业点评 核心内容： 1、配额分配来看，政策前期吹风按照基准配额按 2022 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31⽇期间的历史出⼝量按比例分配。当前落地配额基本符合预期，除了刚果（金） 本地企业 EGC 过往几乎没有出口但有配额 6.5%，但考虑到受本地政策扶持可以理 解。 钴：刚果（金）配额已出，重视钴短中期逻辑强化 事件：10.10 日，刚果（金）出台最新配额政策，配额总量 9.66 万吨，基础配额 8.7 万吨不变。具体分配：洛钼旗下矿企获配额占比 36%，年化 3.12 万吨；第二 大配额企业嘉能可配额占比 22%，年化 1.88 万吨；第三大配额企业欧亚资源配额 占比 12%，年化 1 万吨。此外刚果（金）本国企业 EGC 获配占比 6.5%，年化 5640 吨，位列第四。并且，其他大家关注的中资企业比如北方矿业配额占比 5.5%，年 化 4800 吨；盛屯矿业配额占比 2%，年化 1680 吨；华友钴业配额占比 1.24%， 年化 1080 吨。今年内的 10/11/12 月配额分别为 3625/7250/7250 吨，⾃2025 年 10⽉16⽇起施行。 后市怎么看？ ...

刚果金在 9 月底发布了配额量，并在 10 月 10 日详细说明了每家公司的具体情 况和相关规章制度。对于国内企业来说，必须严格按照刚果的流程操作，任何 造假或违规行为将面临严重后果。刚果政府此次从禁运到解封，包括分配配额， 均严格遵循法律流程，不容钻漏洞。 部分国内企业未能获得配额，主要原因是 没有自有矿山。此外，一些项目如金川的卢阿希项目接近枯竭，新矿山是否能 继承其配额尚无定论。刚果金计划每三个月调整一次配额，但初期可能不会频 繁调整，因为各方仍在摸索流程。 解禁后，预计 10 月份不会有大量钴原料出 口，因为产业客户需要时间准备出口资料，并完全依法依规操作。2025 年四 季度的 1.8 万吨试运行阶段量，如果 10 月、11 月未完成，可延至 12 月出口。 这意味着今年四季度处于试运行阶段，各产业客户无需过度担心，只需按流程 中国自 6 月起消化钴库存，预计 2025 年底前基本消耗完毕。企业安全 库存周期已缩短至一个月左右。四氧化三钴国内定价权较牢固，库存需 进一步观察。 预计 2026 年钴供应缺口约为 2 万吨金属吨，2027 年缺口可能扩大。 3C 产品对钴价上涨的承受能力高于动力电池，暴 ...

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is currently facing significant changes due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export quota system, which will be implemented on October 15, 2025, limiting exports to less than 50% of last year's production of 220,000 tons, resulting in an export quota of approximately 100,000 tons [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Trends**: Domestic spot cobalt prices have risen from 270,000 yuan to nearly 300,000 yuan, with expectations to reach 400,000 yuan, indicating a potential increase of 35% to 50% [2][3]. - **Supply Tightness**: The DRC's export ban will exacerbate global cobalt supply tightness, with the first shipments not expected to arrive in China until late January 2026. Industry inventory is projected to be fully consumed by the end of this year or early next year, maintaining high cobalt prices [1][3][4]. - **Production Declines**: In August, China's imports of cobalt intermediates dropped by 90% year-on-year, and domestic production of cobalt and cobalt sulfate also saw significant declines of 50% and 26% respectively [5]. - **Future Supply Expectations**: If the current steel and hardware policies continue into 2026-2027, cobalt supply will remain tight next year. The U.S. has announced a procurement of 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, impacting metal demand significantly, although market reactions have been muted [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin are favored due to their operations outside the DRC, benefiting from supply stability in Indonesia. DRC-related companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Hanrui Cobalt, and Tengyuan Cobalt are expected to see performance improvements as prices rise [7][12]. - **Huayou Cobalt's Performance**: Huayou Cobalt has 180,000 tons of nickel production capacity in Indonesia, with expected shipments of 120,000 metal tons in the first half of 2025, translating to approximately 24,000 tons of cobalt production. The company is also positioned to benefit from inventory gains due to its significant cobalt salt production capacity [9][11]. Price Forecasts - **2025 and 2026 Price Expectations**: The average cobalt price for 2025 is expected to be around 200,000 yuan, while in 2026, prices are likely to exceed 300,000 yuan, with a potential increase of over 50% year-on-year [8][13]. Additional Insights - **Nickel Price Impact**: Current nickel prices are low, but potential closures of nickel plants in Indonesia could stimulate price increases, which would enhance company performance [10]. - **Overall Market Outlook**: The overall outlook for the cobalt market remains positive, particularly for Huayou Cobalt, with expectations of significant profit contributions from rising prices [13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the cobalt and lithium industries, focusing on market dynamics, price trends, and supply chain issues related to cobalt and lithium production and consumption. Cobalt Industry Insights - **Congo's Cobalt Quota Policy**: The quota policy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is likely to be postponed rather than implemented directly due to the new mining minister's short tenure and cobalt prices not meeting expectations. This has led to a 7-month restriction on domestic cobalt raw material imports, expected to continue until Q1 next year, resulting in tight domestic cobalt supply [1][2]. - **Cobalt Inventory**: Domestic cobalt raw material inventory is relatively sufficient at approximately 80,000 tons, but it is concentrated among a few leading companies, making it susceptible to price manipulation. The inventory of cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide is decreasing, indicating strong demand from downstream ternary materials and consumer electronics, which may drive cobalt prices up [1][4]. - **Production Growth**: Domestic production of ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide has significantly increased, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 44%, respectively. The demand is expected to rise further due to consumer subsidy policies and the traditional peak season [1][5]. - **Price Dynamics**: The price of electric cobalt is expected to stabilize between 250,000 to 300,000 CNY per ton. If the DRC policy is postponed again, cobalt prices may rise above 300,000 CNY, with some companies predicting prices could reach 350,000 to 400,000 CNY [3][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The steel and hardware sectors have paused pricing, indicating a market sentiment of reluctance to sell and expectations of price increases. The price of electric cobalt has lagged, while cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide prices continue to rise, reflecting differing market dynamics for various cobalt products [6]. Factors Influencing Cobalt Prices - **Key Drivers**: The speed of electric cobalt inventory digestion is a crucial driver for cobalt price increases in the short term. In the medium to long term, the DRC's implementation of a quota system is inevitable, which will support high cobalt prices. However, the quota must align with the growth rate of downstream demand [7]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources are expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices due to their wet-process nickel production capabilities in Indonesia, which includes abundant associated cobalt resources. Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt are also noteworthy, as they rely on DRC raw materials but have sufficient inventory to benefit from price increases in the short term [8][9]. Lithium Industry Challenges and Opportunities - **Supply Dependence**: The lithium industry faces challenges due to insufficient anti-involution logic, with China's lithium supply relying heavily on overseas sources. The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with Australian lithium production capacity clearing slowly and South American salt lake production being released at a slow pace [10]. - **Price Trends**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply from below 60,000 CNY to around 90,000 CNY but have since adjusted. Various factors, including high costs and production challenges in Australia and South America, are influencing these price movements [10]. - **Regional Developments**: In Sichuan, lithium project construction is slow, limiting supply growth in the near term. In Jiangxi, the market is affected by the recent suspension of production at a major lithium mine due to permit issues, which may disrupt supply and impact lithium prices [11][12]. Future Price Predictions - **Lithium Price Outlook**: Future lithium prices are expected to stabilize between 70,000 to 90,000 CNY, with 70,000 CNY seen as a potential bottom price. The market is unlikely to see prices drop significantly below this range due to the balance of supply and demand dynamics [16][17]. Recommended Stocks - **Investment Opportunities**: Key lithium stocks to watch include Zhongmin Resources, Yongxing Materials, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium. Zhongmin Resources, in particular, has undergone a detailed fundamental review and held a recent conference call for investors to gain insights [18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the metal sector, particularly focusing on gold, silver, copper, tungsten, rare earths, and steel industries [1][3][5][6][7][8][10][12][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold and Silver Market - **Gold Performance**: 中金黄金 (China National Gold) reported Q2 earnings exceeding expectations, with a quarterly profit of 1.6 to 1.7 billion yuan, showing over 60-70% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth. The company's profitability in the gold mining sector has significantly improved, making it an attractive investment opportunity [3][4]. - **Silver Market Dynamics**: Silver prices have surged due to its proposed inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and tariff concerns, leading to increased demand in the U.S. market. 兴业银锡 (Xingye Silver Tin) is expected to become the largest silver and tin producer in China, with silver production projected to rise from 300 tons this year to over 900 tons by 2028 [1][4]. Copper and Tin Supply Issues - **Copper Supply Constraints**: The copper market is facing challenges due to an accident at Freeport's Indonesian mine and production cuts at Japanese smelters, leading to a projected negative growth in copper supply this year. Recommended companies include 金诚信 (Jinchengxin) and 洛阳钼业 (Luoyang Molybdenum), which are expected to benefit from increased copper production and rising prices of molybdenum and tungsten [5][6]. - **Tin Market**: The tin supply has also been disrupted, with actual increases falling short of expectations. The overall supply growth for tin is minimal, indicating potential upward price elasticity in the future [5]. Tungsten and Rare Earths - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market is experiencing tight supply, leading to price increases. 厦门钨业 (Xiamen Tungsten) is highlighted as a leading company with a continuous increase in tungsten concentrate supply [6]. - **Rare Earths Demand**: The demand for rare earths and magnetic materials is recovering, with expectations for continued price increases. Companies like 北方稀土 (Northern Rare Earth) and 包钢氧化钕 (Baogang Neodymium Oxide) are noted for their strong price increase potential [1][6]. Steel Industry Insights - **Steel Market Performance**: The steel sector is benefiting from anti-competitive policies and improved fundamentals, with Q1 and Q2 earnings showing positive trends. Major companies like 华菱钢铁 (Hualing Steel), 首钢股份 (Shougang), and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) are highlighted for their low price-to-book ratios, indicating high value [2][7][8][10][11]. - **Future Price Trends**: Steel prices are expected to rebound as supply recovers and demand improves, particularly in the construction sector. The anticipated decrease in raw material costs in Q4 could further enhance profitability for steel companies [9][10]. Cobalt Market Developments - **Cobalt Price Surge**: Cobalt prices have risen significantly due to resource concentration and uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo's policies. Companies like 华友钴业 (Huayou Cobalt) and 腾远钴业 (Tengyuan Cobalt) are positioned to benefit from these trends [14][19]. - **Cobalt Supply Constraints**: The production of cobalt salts has reached a five-year low, indicating a tight supply situation. The strategic importance of cobalt is underscored by the U.S. initiating a cobalt reserve plan [15][17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metal sector is optimistic, driven by macroeconomic factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to bolster demand for precious metals and industrial metals alike [1][3][12]. - The focus on strategic resources and their valuation is likely to have long-term implications for the global supply-demand dynamics in the metal industry [18].

Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced the final review ruling on anti-dumping measures for imported phenol from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand, continuing to impose anti-dumping duties starting from August 29, 2025, for a period of five years [2] - The 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo opened in Guiyang, with 375 domestic and foreign enterprises participating. The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that by the end of this year, the added value of the digital economy is expected to reach approximately 49 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35% of GDP [2] - Some photovoltaic glass companies have begun to adjust their new single quotes for September, with the benchmark price for 2.0mm single-layer coated (panel) rising to 13 yuan per square meter, an increase of 2 yuan per square meter compared to July [2] - A recent report indicates that global semiconductor revenue is expected to nearly double from 2024 to 2030, exceeding 1 trillion dollars [3] - The Guizhou Provincial Party Secretary stated at the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo that the focus will be on strengthening the digital economy through computing power, data, applications, and industries [3] - The China Federation of Industry and Commerce released the "2025 China Top 500 Private Enterprises," with JD Group, Alibaba (China) Co., Ltd., and Hengli Group Co., Ltd. ranking in the top three [3] - The domestic cobalt price continues to rise slightly, with the European market also seeing a small increase, as overseas raw material prices are adjusted upward, supporting cost strength [3] Company News - Cambrian announced that it expects to achieve an annual revenue of 5 billion to 7 billion yuan in 2025, while indicating that there are no new product release plans [4] - SMIC reported a revenue of 32.348 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and a net profit of 2.301 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year [5] - Dongxin shares announced that there is a risk of abnormal stock trading fluctuations and will suspend trading for verification [6] - Guolian Minsheng reported a net profit growth of 1185% year-on-year for the first half of the year and plans to establish a 1.22 billion yuan fund with Guolian Life Insurance to invest in new quality productivity and smart technology [7] - Huahong Semiconductor released its semi-annual report, showing a 72% year-on-year decline in net profit [11] - CITIC Securities reported a 29.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year [11] - Anta Sports announced that it is not a party to the potential acquisition transaction of Canada Goose Holdings [11] - XGIMI Technology reported a net profit growth of 2062% year-on-year for the first half of the year [11] - Wanchen Group reported a net profit growth of 50359% year-on-year for the first half of the year [11] - North China Innovation announced a net profit growth of 29.39% year-on-year for the first half of the year [11]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Pava New Energy Co., Ltd. has initiated legal proceedings against Zhejiang Gepai Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Lujia New Materials Co., Ltd. regarding contract disputes related to processing agreements and the return of goods [1][3][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit has been accepted by the court but has not yet been heard [1][3]. - Zhejiang Pava New Energy Co., Ltd. is the plaintiff in the case against Zhejiang Gepai Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., seeking the return of 230 tons of PW508 and 162 tons of PW302 goods, or compensation if the goods cannot be returned [1][7]. - The company is also seeking the return of a total of 1,228,379.66 kg of goods from Zhejiang Lujia New Materials Co., Ltd., with similar compensation terms if the goods cannot be returned [1][7]. Group 2: Financial Claims - Zhejiang Pava Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zhejiang Pava, is requesting the return of a prepaid processing fee of 13 million RMB from Zhejiang Gepai Cobalt Industry New Materials Co., Ltd., along with interest calculated based on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from July 31, 2025, until full payment is made [2][6][7]. - The total amount involved in the lawsuits includes the return of goods and the processing fee, highlighting significant financial stakes for the company [1][2][7]. Group 3: Impact on Operations - The company asserts that the lawsuits will not affect its normal production and operations, emphasizing that the legal actions are aimed at protecting its and its shareholders' rights [2][8]. - The actual impact on the company's profits remains uncertain until the court's decisions are made and executed [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side production cuts are expected to dominate lithium prices, with rising costs providing additional support [3][17]. - In the precious metals sector, market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to pressure from President Trump, which is expected to support gold prices in the short term [2][10]. - For industrial metals, a tight supply of copper is anticipated to continue, while seasonal factors may lead to fluctuations in aluminum prices [3][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve, which has raised concerns about its independence. This uncertainty is expected to bolster market risk aversion, supporting gold prices in an environment where they are likely to rise more easily than fall [2][10]. - Key stocks to watch include major players like Zhaojin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining, with additional focus on silver and platinum stocks [2][11]. Industrial Metals - The copper market is characterized by a continued tight supply, with expectations of reduced production from some smelters due to low profit margins. The report anticipates that copper prices will remain supported by ongoing demand, particularly from the renewable energy sector [3][12][13]. - Aluminum prices are expected to experience volatility due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term prospects remain positive due to persistent demand from the new energy sector [3][16]. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with production cuts from lithium salt plants providing limited support. However, the report suggests that lithium remains a strategic investment opportunity in the electric vehicle supply chain [3][17][18]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Salt Lake Potash, Canggu Mining, and Yongxing Materials, with additional focus on companies like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium [3][17]. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing strong pricing for light rare earth products due to supply constraints, while heavy rare earths are facing weaker demand. The report notes a divergence in market sentiment, with cautious optimism prevailing despite concerns over potential price corrections [4][19][22]. - Key stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Zhongtian Rare Earth [4][22]. Market Review - The report indicates that the non-ferrous index rose by 6.7%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices. Notable stock performances include Zhongtung High-tech with a 40.19% increase and Hai Xing Co. with a 19.04% decline [23][24][25].

Macro and Strategy - The fiscal data for the first five months of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure, with total public budget revenue at 96,623 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and total expenditure at 112,953 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year [9][10] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report indicates that the diffusion index remains unchanged, with specific sectors like dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices rising, while others like acrylonitrile are declining [10][11] - The macroeconomic report highlights a seasonal decline in high-frequency indicators, suggesting stable economic performance despite fluctuations in investment and consumption sectors [11][12] Industry and Company - The food and beverage industry report emphasizes the emergence of new consumption patterns driven by lifestyle changes, indicating a shift towards more personalized and experience-oriented consumption [23][24] - The report identifies three main consumer groups: Generation Z, the silver-haired population, and the middle class, each with distinct consumption preferences and behaviors [25][26] - Investment recommendations include companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, Dongpeng Beverage, and Guizhou Moutai, reflecting confidence in the food and beverage sector's growth potential [27] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market has seen a pullback from high levels, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and a notable shift of funds towards the financial sector [28][29] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, with significant outflows from the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors, while the machinery sector attracted investment [30][31] Financial Engineering - The REITs market has shown positive performance, with the index rising by 0.87% and a year-to-date increase of 13.2%, indicating strong interest in property and infrastructure-related investments [14][15] - The approval of the first data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the REITs market, reflecting growing interest in digital infrastructure [16]