Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The U.S. announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, aiming for normalization of relations with Minsk, which may have limited direct impact on global potash supply-demand balance [2][6] - Potash demand remains strong while supply growth is limited, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry [2][12] - Key companies to watch in the potash sector include Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, Oriental Tower, and Zangge Mining [2] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 13, 2025, U.S. Special Envoy John Coale met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, announcing the lifting of sanctions on potash fertilizers [6] Market Dynamics - The price of cyclical products is primarily determined by supply and demand rather than costs. The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. is not expected to significantly alter the global potash supply-demand balance but may reduce Belarusian potash costs [12] - Belarus is the third-largest potash producer globally, with a market share of approximately 16%. Sanctions in 2022 led to a significant reduction in supply and a surge in global potash prices [12] Supply Recovery - Belarusian potash production, which fell to 5.408 million tons in 2022 due to sanctions, has been recovering, reaching 11.559 million tons in 2024, close to its historical peak of 13 million tons in 2021 [12] - The lifting of U.S. sanctions is expected to have a limited overall impact, as Belarusian potash costs remain high due to ongoing EU and Lithuanian sanctions [12] Demand Outlook - The demand for potash is expected to remain robust, driven by high prices of phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers, with potash prices being competitive [12] - In the first half of 2025, potash exports from Canada, Russia, and Belarus increased by 26%, 5%, and 18% respectively, indicating strong demand [12] Capital Expenditure and Supply Constraints - The potash industry has seen limited capital expenditure due to prolonged periods of low prices, leading to constrained future supply growth [12] - The cyclical nature of the industry means that prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics than by production costs [12]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 71.37%, and a total revenue of 3.867 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 55.76% compared to the previous year, surpassing last year's total of 3.548 billion yuan [1] - Net profit for the first three quarters surged by 175% to 1.362 billion yuan, with a single-quarter gross margin increasing by 13 percentage points to 62% [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities reached 1.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.68%, indicating enhanced profitability and cash reserves for future capacity expansion and sustained dividend capabilities [1] Company Performance - The core logic behind the company's substantial growth is the release of production and sales volumes combined with the benefits from rising potassium fertilizer prices [1] - The company produced 1.4986 million tons of potassium fertilizer in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, and sold 1.5243 million tons, up 22.79%, significantly outpacing industry growth rates [1] - The company's stock price increased by 119% from the beginning of the year to October 29, reaching a market capitalization of over 40 billion yuan, a historical high [1] Industry Context - The company capitalized on the upward trend in potassium fertilizer prices, with profit per ton increasing by 124% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2] - Domestic potassium fertilizer spot prices rose by 23.82% to 3,070 yuan per ton, while the average international price for Southeast Asian standard potassium reached 349.78 USD per ton CFR, a year-on-year increase of 20.61% [2] - The global demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to continue growing due to population increases and the need for enhanced agricultural yields, supported by domestic policies and international agricultural expansion plans [2] Future Outlook - The company is set to achieve a significant increase in potassium fertilizer production capacity with the gradual ramp-up of 5 million tons of capacity, which is expected to sustain a cycle of volume and price growth, enhancing revenue and profit stability [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a traditional steel structure manufacturer to a resource-oriented enterprise, driven by its dual focus on steel structures and potash fertilizer production [4][10]. - The potash fertilizer market is expected to experience price increases due to ongoing supply disruptions and a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4][29]. - The company has significant growth potential in the potash sector, with plans to expand production capacity and explore additional resource opportunities [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Structure and Potash Fertilizer Dual Drive - The company has evolved from a single steel structure focus to a dual business model that includes potash fertilizer, following strategic acquisitions and expansions [4][10]. 2. Potash Fertilizer Supply Disruptions and Price Trends - Global potash supply is constrained, with major producers announcing production cuts, which is likely to sustain upward price pressure [4][44]. - The global potash market is characterized by a significant supply-demand mismatch, with major production concentrated in a few countries [39][40]. 3. Successful Overseas Expansion and Product Diversification - The company has successfully established a presence in the potash market, with production capacity reaching 1 million tons per year and plans for further expansion [12][18]. - The company is also diversifying its product offerings through investments in other mineral resources, such as phosphates [6][12]. 4. Mining Sector Layout and Transition to Resource-Oriented Enterprise - The company has made strategic investments in mining, including acquiring stakes in phosphate projects, to enhance its resource base [6][10]. - The company is actively developing potash resources in Laos, which is expected to contribute significantly to its growth [4][6]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve substantial growth in net profit, with estimates of 1.1 billion, 1.25 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 95.5% [5][6].