公司碳酸锂产量有望大幅增加，4万吨/年基础锂盐一体化项目通过科学施工组织实现关键节点突破，吸 附提锂装置已于6月3日完成中交验收，预计9月底投料试车。项目投产后，公司碳酸锂年产能将从4万吨 跃升至8万吨，进一步巩固行业领先地位。 2025年1月，盐湖股份完成1.41亿股股份注销，总股本由54.33亿股减至52.92亿股，优化股本结构。4 月，实际控制人中国五矿集团启动增持计划，截至8月6日累计增持2.48亿股，占公司总股本4.69%，完 成增持计划下限，增强市场信心。 盐湖股份目前钾肥和碳酸锂产量相对稳定，利润增长主要来源于产品价格上涨，特别是钾肥价格今年上 半年有一定涨幅。今年6月25日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就2025年钾肥 年度进口合同价格达成一致，合同价格为346美元/吨CFR ；相较2024年上涨27%。 这背后主要是2月18日，俄罗斯乌拉尔钾肥公司（Uralkali）宣布三座矿山将于2025年二三季度停产检 修。整体而言，按减量下限，即白俄罗斯减量90万吨，俄罗斯减量70万吨估计，两俄减产计划预计将形 成至少160万吨的供给减量。俄罗斯和白俄罗斯两大主要生产商连续限产，叠 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meeting on potassium fertilizer supply and price stabilization highlighted concerns over abnormal price increases, with companies committing to enhance market supply to bring prices back to reasonable levels [1] - As of July 11, prices for various potassium fertilizers at Qingdao and Zhanjiang ports showed significant weekly increases, with prices rising by 5.9% to 4.48% [1] - The price for the 2025 annual potassium fertilizer import contract was agreed at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a $73 per ton increase from the 2024 contract price [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the market price of potassium chloride surged by 800 to 1000 yuan per ton, prompting government intervention through the release of state reserves to stabilize prices [2] - The total auction volume for state reserves reached 1.1 million tons, aimed at supporting downstream compound fertilizer factories and direct agricultural users [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Companies in the potassium fertilizer sector reported substantial profit growth due to rising prices, with Oriental Iron Tower expecting a net profit increase of 63.8% to 79.78% in the first half of the year [3] - Yaqi International projected a net profit increase of 170% to 244%, attributing this to stable production, increased sales, and higher selling prices [3] - Cangge Mining announced an expected net profit increase of 34.93% to 46.49%, with significant contributions from its investment in a copper company and its potassium chloride business [4] Group 4: Future Demand - According to Argus, global potassium fertilizer demand is projected to rise to 74.3 million tons by 2025, with significant demand expected from Asia, Latin America, and North America [4]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yaqi International (亚钾国际) is expected to improve significantly in the first half of 2025, with projected net profits between 730 million and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244% due to stable production and rising prices of potassium fertilizers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Yaqi International anticipates a net profit of 7.3 billion to 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a substantial increase compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 12.13 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 91.47%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 373.53% [4]. - In 2023, the company faced a decline in net profit to 1.235 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.12% year-on-year, while revenue was 3.898 billion yuan, a growth of 12.45% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The potassium fertilizer market has seen a recovery in prices since 2025, with significant increases in both domestic and international markets, contributing to Yaqi International's improved performance [1][4]. - The price of potassium chloride products has risen, with domestic prices reaching 2,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous month [4]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - Yaqi International has a potassium salt mining right in Laos covering 263.3 square kilometers, with an estimated pure potassium chloride resource reserve of approximately 1 billion tons [1][6]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity, aiming to add 1 million tons of potassium fertilizer annually, and has recently completed the third phase of its large red granular potassium expansion project, achieving a total capacity of nearly 900,000 tons per year [6][7]. Group 4: Shareholder Changes - The share transfer process is ongoing, with a significant transaction involving the transfer of 46.2 million shares from Zhongnong Group to Huili Group, which will make Huili Group the largest shareholder of Yaqi International [1][8]. - Huili Group has previously acquired a 9.01% stake in Yaqi International for 1.466 billion yuan and plans to provide up to 1.8 billion yuan in loans to support the company's strategic development [8].

Core Viewpoint - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a price increase due to the signing of large contracts and a shortage of supply, with domestic prices approaching earlier highs in 2023 [1] Price Trends - As of late June, the benchmark ex-factory price for domestic salt lake potassium chloride (60% KCl) is 2700 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous month, nearing the year's high points from February and March [1] - The market price for potassium fertilizer in Laos has also risen, reaching approximately 3150 CNY per ton by the end of June, which is an increase of over 150 CNY per ton prior to the signing of large contracts [1] - Some distributors are quoting prices as high as 3350 CNY per ton, matching the year's peak [1]