1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are currently weak in both supply and demand, with an expected marginal improvement in the future. In March, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to improved demand and cost support [2][74]. - For silicomanganese, there was some new production capacity put into operation at the beginning of the year, leading to a slight increase in overall supply. In March, the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom as the profit - loss ratio decreases after the rapid increase in the disk price, and the rumored 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore from South Africa has not been confirmed [2][74]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply is continuously at a low level. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi restricts the output release. The demand is expected to increase as steel profits have recovered and iron - water production is expected to rise in March. The main - producing area electricity prices are stable and slightly strong, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price has increased significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in March [2][74]. - **Silicomanganese**: There is new production capacity at the beginning of the year, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to pick up as steel profits recover and rebar production is expected to rise seasonally after the Spring Festival. The manganese ore port inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the spot price is firm. Overseas mines' March quotes have a slight increase. However, the rumored 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore from South Africa has not been confirmed, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in March [2][74]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In February, ferrosilicon futures prices first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the steel demand entering the off - season and the overall black - metal market being in an adjustment period. The subsequent sharp increase was stimulated by the rise in electricity prices at the South African manganese ore end and the so - called "ecological export tax" [7]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in March - **Supply**: Silicomanganese (187 enterprises) had a January output of 854,000 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 3.7% year - on - year decrease. Some new production capacity was put into operation, and the February output is expected to continue to increase slightly. Ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) had a January output of 437,000 tons, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease and a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. The February output is expected to be basically flat month - on - month and slightly decrease year - on - year [28]. - **Demand**: Iron - water production showed a narrow - range fluctuation in February. On February 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.79 million tons more than the previous week. In March, steel profits have rebounded, and according to the blast - furnace maintenance plan, iron - water production is expected to increase slightly. However, if the steel inventory removal speed in March is not ideal, it will restrict the steel mills' resumption of production and drag down the improvement of alloy demand [29][31]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Alloy factory inventory**: On February 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 70,400 tons, a 1,100 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 398,000 tons, a 3,500 - ton increase from the previous week. Ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while silicomanganese inventory is high, which suppresses the price [44]. - **Downstream inventory**: Steel mills have carried out phased replenishment in advance. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the available days of inventory being at a relatively high level in the past three years, the subsequent procurement intensity may weaken [44]. 3.2.4 South African Manganese Ore Event - In February, the electricity price in the main - producing areas was stable and slightly strong, with a significant increase in Inner Mongolia. The manganese ore port inventory is about 4.3 million tons, similar to the same period last year and lower than the average level in recent years. The low inventory supports the spot price. The market rumor that South Africa will levy a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore has not been confirmed [55]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral trading**: Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and silicomanganese is expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - **Options**: Sell put options on rallies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, ferroalloy prices rebounded slightly following the black - series commodities. The main contract of silicomanganese rose by 0.94%, and ferrosilicon futures rose by 2.06%, with ferrosilicon performing stronger than silicomanganese. The current supply in the production areas remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the high molten iron production in the downstream still supports the demand for alloys, but the main contradiction lies in inventory. As the downstream demand weakens seasonally, it is more difficult to reduce inventory. The cost side of ferroalloys is relatively strong, with coal - coke prices rising and some manganese ore prices increasing. Overall, the alloy prices are in a state of "having a bottom and a ceiling", and the market is expected to move in a range in the short term. Short - selling risks are high, and it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, while paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese. The reference range for the main silicomanganese contract is [5700, 5850], and for the main ferrosilicon contract is [5300, 5700] [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Silicomanganese Market - **Price**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 50 yuan/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi remained unchanged, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7][8] - **Cost and Profit**: The production costs in the northern and southern regions are 5818 yuan/ton and 6253 yuan/ton respectively, with production losses of 170 yuan/ton and 631 yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Electricity Price**: The electricity price in the production areas remained stable [13] - **Basis**: The basis in Jiangsu is - 22 yuan/ton [15] - **Supply**: As of October 24, the national silicomanganese output was 20.74 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 43.04%, a decrease of 0.24% [22] - **Demand**: The output of rebar increased, and the molten iron output dropped below 2.4 million tons [23] - **Steel Mill Tendering**: HeSteel's silicomanganese tender price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from the previous round. The procurement volume was 16,500 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous round but an increase of 4,500 tons compared to the same period last year [29] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 293,000 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons from the previous week [30] - **Manganese Ore Price**: High - grade manganese ore prices decreased slightly, while South32 semi - carbonate increased by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree [32] - **Outer Market**: Some mines' November quotes continued to rise. South32's November manganese ore quotes for China showed an increase of 0.05 dollars/ton - degree for South African semi - carbonate and high - manganese ore, and Comilog's Gabon block increased by 0.08 dollars/ton - degree [38] - **Shipping Data**: The shipping and arrival volumes increased, and the port clearance volume decreased compared to the previous week [39] - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of October 17, the national port inventory was 4.364 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.777 million tons, a decrease of 91,000 tons [42] Ferrosilicon Market - **Price**: The spot prices in production areas were strong. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Gansu increased, and the price in Jiangsu increased by 100 yuan/ton [44][46] - **Cost and Profit**: The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5616 yuan/ton and 5513 yuan/ton respectively, with production losses of 416 yuan/ton and 333 yuan/ton respectively [49] - **Basis**: The basis in Jiangsu is 108 yuan/ton [50] - **Supply**: As of October 24, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 114,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 35.56%, an increase of 0.08% [57] - **Steel Mill Tendering**: HeSteel's ferrosilicon tender price in October was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from September. The procurement volume was 2956 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from September but an increase of 920 tons compared to the same period last year [63] - **Non - steel Demand**: Not detailed in the report - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 2500 tons from the previous week [66]