Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5482 | -36 | 20 | 282348 | -125888 | 257168 | 716 | | SM主力合约 | 5736 | -22 | 4 | 160310 | -64885 | 278789 | 5134 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | -20 | 80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5540 | 0 | 30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 52 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5462 | 18 | 14 | 245113 | -169367 | 267182 | 3413 | | SM主力合约 | 5732 | -4 | 4 | 259055 | -6012 | 282351 | 11069 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5200 | -30 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5510 | -20 | -20 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Report Type: Black Metal Daily Report (Ferroalloy) - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost drives short - term rebounds in ferroalloy futures, but future demand pressure restricts the rebound height [5]. - For single - sided trading, expect short - term rebounds driven by cost but be cautious about the limited upside due to demand pressure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5546, up 100 for the day and 156 for the week, with a trading volume of 306,562 (up 75,654) and an open interest of 259,817 (down 483) [3]. - SM主力合约 closed at 5796, up 50 for the day and 168 for the week, with a trading volume of 290,333 (up 187,890) and an open interest of 252,039 (up 52,021) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon iron spot prices were mostly stable on the 4th. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5,250, unchanged for the day and up 50 for the week [3]. - Manganese silicon spot prices were stable to slightly stronger, with some regions up 20 yuan/ton. For example, silicon manganese 6517 in Tianjin was up 20 yuan/ton for the day and 90 yuan/ton for the week [3]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - For silicon iron, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main contract was - 296 (down 100 for the day and 106 for the week) [3]. - The SF - SM spread was - 250, up 50 for the day and down 12 for the week [3]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin showed mixed trends on the 4th. Australian lumps rose 0.2 yuan/ton - degree, and semi - carbonates fell 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [3][5]. - Lanthanum charcoal small materials' prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Trading Strategy - **Silicon Iron**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but limited upside due to demand. In November, power prices in production areas increased, exacerbating losses and expected to reduce future output. Although steel profits have recovered, steel production is still declining [5]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost - driven short - term rebound, but future demand pressure exists. Manganese ore port inventories are at a low level, and the spot price is strong, but steel demand for manganese silicon is weakening [5]. 3.2.2 Unilateral, Arbitrage, and Option Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term rebound driven by cost, but limited upside due to demand pressure [6]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.3 Important Information - On the 4th, the transaction price of semi - carbonates at Tianjin Port was around 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lumps around 43 yuan/ton - degree, etc. [7]. - In November, power prices in Qinghai continued to rise by 3 - 6 cents, and some enterprises in Qinghai plan to stop production due to increased losses. Power prices in Ningxia were stable with a slight increase of 1 cent [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, and cost - profit charts, which visually display the price trends and cost - profit situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [11][12][15][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset. For silicomanganese, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The overall alloy valuation is not high, with cost support. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract closed at 5390, down 26 from the previous day and 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 317,259 (down 75,844 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,279 (up 19,308 from the previous day) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5628, unchanged from the previous day and up 14 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 144,376 (up 20,465 from the previous day) and an open interest of 332,903 (down 37,054 from the previous day) [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5520, unchanged from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5500, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5480, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5530, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5630, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and down 24 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 140, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 320, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; SF - SM spread was - 238, down 26 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 128, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 148, unchanged from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 98, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was priced at 39.8, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.1 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, down 0.1 from the previous day and the previous week; Gabon lump was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 from the previous week [2][3][4] - Lanthanum semi - coke small materials: In Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2][3][4] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon - On November 27, the spot price was stable overall. The supply is in a downward trend as alloy plants enter the maintenance phase. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the recent weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The cost of ferroalloy electricity prices in each region is generally stable. Overall, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and with a low self - valuation level, it should be operated with a bottom - oscillation mindset [6] 3.2.2 Silicomanganese - On November 27, manganese ore spot was slightly weak, with Tianjin Port semi - carbonate down 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and silicomanganese spot also slightly weak, with some regional spots down 20 yuan/ton. The supply is in a downward trend. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot price is firm, leading to an increase in the cost. Under stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall alloy valuation is not high, and the cost is supported, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, etc [9][11][13][15][18][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5448, down 0.15%, with an increase of 9552 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5636, up 0.11%, with a decrease of 13172 in open interest [5]. - For silicon ferro, the spot price was generally stable on the 25th. The supply is decreasing slightly as alloy plants enter the maintenance stage. Demand is expected to decline as future hot metal production is likely to fall. Costs are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and cost support, it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset [5]. - For manganese silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 25th, and manganese silicon spot prices were generally stable. Supply is also in a downward trend with some manufacturers in Ningxia adding maintenance and shutdowns. Demand is expected to decline. Costs are rising as port inventories of manganese ore are at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom under the game of weak supply - demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With a weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5448 | - 8 | - 74 | 316787 | - 44115 | 208059 | 9552 | | SM Main Contract | 5636 | 6 | - 44 | 120736 | - 81677 | 384812 | - 13172 | [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai and the main contract increased, and the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SF - SM spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton on the day and 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi and the main contract decreased, and the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Gabon lump increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree on the day and 0.5 yuan/ton degree week - on - week, while the prices of Australian lump and South African semi - carbonate were stable [2]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement 3.2.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.2 Important Information - On the 25th, the quotation of semi - carbonate Mn36.81% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron Mn33.77%Fe21.14% with a particle size of 6 - 100mm was quoted at 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was quoted at 42 yuan/ton degree [7]. - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production of 1 silicon - manganese 6517 furnace [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Figures include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, ferroalloy electricity prices, and cost - profit charts of silicon ferro and manganese silicon [9][11][13][15][17][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 17, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5566, up 1.38% with a decrease of 2684 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5792, up 0.77% with a decrease of 2748 in open interest. The fundamentals of both SF and SM show weak supply and demand, with cost increases driving short - term rebounds. They are expected to continue bottom - oscillating [6]. - For trading strategies, in the case of weak supply - demand fundamentals and rising costs, it is expected to be in bottom - oscillation. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5662, up 122 for the day and down 30 for the week, with a trading volume of 295372 (up 67133 for the day) and an open interest of 134545 (down 1747 for the day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5792, up 44 for the day and down 28 for the week, with a trading volume of 207209 (up 87774 for the day) and an open interest of 359008 (down 2748 for the day) [2]. Spot - Silicon ferroalloy: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5280, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5250, unchanged for the day and week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged for the day and up 30 for the week; in Jiangsu, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and down 50 for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5600, up 100 for the day and down 80 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5600, unchanged for the day and down 20 for the week; in Ningxia, it was 5550, unchanged for the day and week; in Guangxi, it was 5600, unchanged for the day and week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week; in Tianjin, it was 5700, up 20 for the day and unchanged for the week [2]. Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 382, down 122 for the day and up 10 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 412, down 122 for the day and up 30 for the week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 362, down 122 for the day and up 60 for the week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 270, unchanged for the day and down 30 for the week; SF - SM spread was - 130, up 78 for the day and down 2 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 8 for the week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 242, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 192, down 44 for the day and up 28 for the week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 0, unchanged for the day and up 20 for the week [2]. Raw Materials - Manganese ore in Tianjin: Australian lump was priced at 39.7, up 0.2 for the day and 0.7 for the week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.3, unchanged for the day and week; Gabonese lump was 40.5, unchanged for the day and up 0.5 for the week [2]. - Lanthanum semi - coke: in Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged for the day and week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged for the day and week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged for the day and week [2]. Market Judgment Silicon Ferroalloy - On November 17, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate and output of sample enterprises on the supply side both decreased. Attention should be paid to whether a production - cut trend will form when the price reaches a low level. On the demand side, the steel inventory de - stocking statistics at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, due to the dry season and the strong spot price of coal, the electricity prices of ferroalloys in each production area were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the cost increase drives a short - term rebound. It is expected to continue the bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Manganese Silicon - On November 17, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin increased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was also stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in some regions increased by 20 yuan/ton. The supply side also showed a slight decline. On the demand side, as mentioned above, the steel inventory data at the beginning of the week were good, and the concern about negative feedback was slightly alleviated. On the cost side, the domestic port inventory was at a low level in the same period, the spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas manganese ore quotation also increased steadily. Coupled with a slight increase in the electricity fee in the production area, the cost side increased. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to mainly oscillate at the bottom [6]. Important Information - On November 17, the price of Australian lump Mn42.3% in Tianjin was 39.7 yuan/ton degree, the price of Gabonese lump Mn46.6% was 40.5 yuan/ton degree, and the price of semi - carbonate Mn37% was 35 yuan/ton degree [8]. - A ferroalloy plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, carried out maintenance on one 25500kva silicon ferroalloy furnace on the afternoon of November 16, reducing the daily output by about 70 tons [9]. Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including the trend review of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon [10][13][14][17][19][22].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, dated November 12, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03134259 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0021009 [1] Group 2: Market Information - Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5552, daily change -10, weekly change -8, trading volume 227389 (daily change 47369), open interest 107008 (daily change 11367) [2] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5762, daily change -2, weekly change -14, trading volume 131411 (daily change -77160), open interest 353974 (daily change -2167) [2] Group 3: Market Information - Spot Silicon Iron - 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia: Spot price 5280, daily change -50, weekly change -20 [2] - 72%FeSi in Ningxia: Spot price 5250, daily change -30, weekly change 0 [2] - 72%FeSi in Qinghai: Spot price 5300, daily change 0, weekly change 30 [2] - 72%FeSi in Jiangsu: Spot price 5500, daily change 0, weekly change -50 [2] - 72%FeSi in Tianjin: Spot price 5500, daily change -50, weekly change 50 [2] Silicon Manganese - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia: Spot price 5600, daily change -20, weekly change -20 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Ningxia: Spot price 5560, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Guangxi: Spot price 5600, daily change -20, weekly change 0 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Jiangsu: Spot price 5720, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] - Silicon Manganese 6517 in Tianjin: Spot price 5700, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] Group 4: Market Information - Basis/Spread Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia - Main Contract: Basis -272, daily change -40, weekly change -12 [2] - Ningxia - Main Contract: Basis -302, daily change -20, weekly change 8 [2] - Qinghai - Main Contract: Basis -252, daily change 10, weekly change 38 [2] - Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia: Spread 220, daily change 50, weekly change -30 [2] - SF - SM Spread: -210, daily change -8, weekly change 6 [2] Manganese Silicon - Inner Mongolia - Main Contract: Basis -162, daily change -18, weekly change -6 [2] - Ningxia - Main Contract: Basis -202, daily change 2, weekly change 14 [2] - Guangxi - Main Contract: Basis -162, daily change -18, weekly change 14 [2] - Guangxi - Inner Mongolia: Spread 0, daily change 0, weekly change 20 [2] Group 5: Market Information - Raw Materials Manganese Ore (Tianjin) - Australian Lump: Price 39.3, daily change 0.1, weekly change 0.5 [2] - South African Semi - Carbonate: Price 34.3, daily change 0, weekly change 0.1 [2] - Gabon Lump: Price 40.2, daily change 0, weekly change 0.4 [2] Lanthanum Charcoal Small Pieces - In Shaanxi: Price 820, daily change 0, weekly change 0 [2] - In Ningxia: Price 920, daily change 0, weekly change 110 [2] - In Inner Mongolia: Price 810, daily change 0, weekly change 10 [2] Group 6: Market Judgment - Trading Strategy - On November 12, the ferroalloy futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The silicon iron main contract closed at 5490, up 0.04%, with an increase of 4366 in open interest; the manganese silicon main contract closed at 5762, down 0.03%, with a decrease of 2167 in open interest [5] - Silicon Iron: Spot prices on the 12th were stable with a slight decline, with prices in some regions dropping by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Supply remained high. Demand was expected to decline as the seasonal off - season approached, with steel production and apparent demand decreasing, and steel profits being poor. The tender price of the leading steel mill in Hebei in November decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The power price in the production area was stable with a slight increase. Overall, the supply - demand balance weakened marginally, but the cost side provided support. Previous short positions could be reduced on dips [5] - Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore spot prices on the 12th were stable with a slight increase, with the spot price of Australian lump in Tianjin rising by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. Manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight decline, with prices in some regions dropping by 20 yuan/ton. Some enterprises had minor maintenance, but overall production remained high. Steel demand was weak, steel mill profits were poor, leading to a downward trend in hot metal production. There was still downward pressure on future demand for manganese silicon. The overseas quotation of manganese ore was stable with a slight increase, and the power price also increased. The supply - demand balance of manganese silicon weakened marginally, the cost provided support, and the futures valuation was at a relatively low level. Previous short positions could be reduced [5] - Unilateral: The supply - demand balance weakens marginally, but the cost side provides support. Previous short positions can be reduced on dips; Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 7: Important Information - A large steel mill in Hebei's inquiry price for 75B silicon iron in November was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to October, with a quantity of 2716 tons, a decrease of 240 tons compared to October [7] - Since November 12, 2025, Shagang has lowered the scrap steel price by 30 yuan/ton, with the specific scrap steel price based on the 2025 - F17 price [8] Group 8: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5556 yuan/ton, profit - 336 yuan/ton [17] - Ningxia: Production cost 5659 yuan/ton, profit - 509 yuan/ton [17] - Shaanxi: Production cost 5663 yuan/ton, profit - 543 yuan/ton [17] - Qinghai: Production cost 5717 yuan/ton, profit - 547 yuan/ton [17] - Gansu: Production cost 5765 yuan/ton, profit - 565 yuan/ton [17] Silicon Manganese - Inner Mongolia: Production cost 5805 yuan/ton, profit - 185 yuan/ton [20] - Ningxia: Production cost 5834 yuan/ton, profit - 274 yuan/ton [20] - Guangxi: Production cost 6339 yuan/ton, profit - 739 yuan/ton [20] - Guizhou: Production cost 6159 yuan/ton, profit - 579 yuan/ton [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Black Metal Daily" dated October 27, 2025, by researcher Zhou Tao [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5564, up 22 for the day and 128 for the week, with a trading volume of 132,349 (down 7,389) and an open interest of 174,287 (down 7,891) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5802, up 30 for the day and 64 for the week, with a trading volume of 130,341 (down 87,247) and an open interest of 345,980 (down 4,913) [2] Spot - For 72% FeSi, prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5320, 5270, 5300, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with daily and weekly changes varying [2] - For Si - Mn 6517, prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5680, 5580, 5650, 5750, and 5720 respectively, with daily and weekly changes varying [2] Basis/Spread - For silicon - iron, Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 244, Ningxia - main contract basis was - 294, etc., with daily and weekly changes [2] - For manganese - silicon, Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 122, Ningxia - main contract basis was - 222, etc., with daily and weekly changes [2] - SF - SM spread was - 238, down 8 for the day and up 64 for the week [2] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 38.8 (down 0.2 for the day and 0.4 for the week), South African semi - carbonate was 34 (unchanged), and Gabon lump was 39.7 (down 0.1 for the week) [2] - For blue charcoal small materials, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 750, 810, and 800 respectively, with weekly increases [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On October 27, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron main contract rose 0.4% and the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.52% [5] - For silicon - iron, spot prices were stable to weak on the 27th. Supply increased slightly, demand was affected by steel inventory and production restrictions. It rebounded with the market but still faced supply - demand pressure and could be a short - side configuration after valuation repair [5] - For manganese - silicon, manganese ore spot was stable to weak, and manganese - silicon spot was stable. Supply decreased slightly but remained high, demand was affected by steel inventory and iron - water production. It could also be a short - side configuration after valuation repair [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: Follow the short - term rebound, but still short - side configuration after low - valuation repair [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 4: Important Information - NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36% (min) South African semi - carbonate lump was $4.1/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] - A large steel mill in Hebei raised the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 27, 2025 [7] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits, which provide visual data references for the market situation [11][12][13][14]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report - Ferrous Alloys Daily [2] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5538, up 64 (1.17%) from the previous day, up 186 from the previous week; trading volume 134,081, down 44,845; open interest 197,587, down 7,816 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5810, up 64 (1.11%) from the previous day, up 64 from the previous week; trading volume 174,618, up 14,272; open interest 356,712, down 12,350 [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin showed changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton in some regions [3] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were generally stable [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -238, with daily and weekly changes of -14 and -166 respectively [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -130, with daily and weekly changes of -64 and -64 respectively [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore: Tianjin Port's Australian lump decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree, while South African semi - carbonate was stable [3] - Blue Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Silicon Iron - Supply: Recent production decreased slightly but remained at a high level [6] - Demand: September macro data continued the downward trend in Q3, steel profits and inventory were poor, and steel mill production cut expectations pressured raw material demand [6] - Outlook: Low valuation led to a corrective rebound, but fundamental pressure remained, and the rebound's sustainability was expected to be limited. It was recommended to continue the bottom - range operation [6] Manganese Silicon - Supply: Recent production increased and remained at a high level [6] - Demand: Macro data was poor, steel inventory was high, and profits were low, leading to a downward demand expectation [6] - Outlook: After the low - valuation of the futures price, a corrective rebound occurred, but the sustainability was expected to be limited. It was recommended to continue the bottom - range operation [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Low valuation drove the rebound, but the fundamental pressure remained unchanged. The sustainability was expected to be limited, and it was recommended to continue the range - bound operation [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] Group 5: Important Information - On the 22nd, the transaction prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were as follows: South African semi - carbonate was 34 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 39.6 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump was 39 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African medium - iron lump was 35.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed was 34.5 - 35 yuan/ton degree [8] - Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipping price to China: Mn34% (min) South African semi - carbonate powder was 3.65 US dollars/ton degree, and there was no lump ore offer this month [8] Group 6: Related Diagrams - Silicon Iron Monthly Spread: The spread showed different values on different days [15] - Manganese Silicon Monthly Spread: The spread showed different values on different days [13] - Silicon Iron Basis: The basis of the main contract - Inner Mongolia was presented [16] - Manganese Silicon Basis: The basis of the main contract - Inner Mongolia was presented [16] - Silicon Iron Cost and Profit: Costs and profits in different regions were provided [19] - Manganese Silicon Cost and Profit: Costs and profits in different regions were provided [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5436, up 0.11%, with an increase of 5090 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5738, up 0.35%, with a decrease of 12123 in positions [6]. - For silicon iron, on the 20th, the spot price was stable. The supply is still at a high level, while the demand faces pressure due to the poor performance of macro - data in September, high steel inventories, and the expected steel mill maintenance. However, its low valuation provides some support, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 20th, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and manganese silicon spot prices were also stable with a slight increase. The supply is at a high level, and the demand has a downward risk due to poor macro - data and high steel inventories. It is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom, restricted by demand but supported by valuation and low manganese ore inventories [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect bottom - range fluctuations as the demand expectation remains weak, but the valuation and cost side provide support; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5436, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 30, a trading volume of 134,692 (down 441), and an open interest of 203,512 (up 5090). The SM main contract closed at 5738, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of - 8, a trading volume of 152,986 (down 8580), and an open interest of 377,834 (down 12123) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon iron, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with some minor changes in weekly prices. For manganese silicon, some regional spot prices rose by 20 yuan/ton, and the manganese ore in Tianjin Port semi - carbonate rose by 0.2 yuan/ton degree [3][6]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 302, with a daily change of - 14 and a weekly change of 38 [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of different types had minor daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in different regions were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to have bottom - range fluctuations; arbitrage is to wait and see; options are to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7]. - **Important Information**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron output was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel output was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%, etc. [8] Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the ferroalloy main contract trend review, the sf - sm spread on the disk, the monthly spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon, and the ferroalloy electricity prices [12][16][20]