大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5622 | -56 | -172 | 267911 | -104641 | 233070 | -4976 | | SM主力合约 | 5836 | -78 | -238 | 232175 | 39082 | 282128 | 167243 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5450 | -50 | -100 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5750 | -50 | -50 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 54 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 黑色金属日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5970 | 150 | 62 | 223621 | 25074 | 108388 | 86379 | | SM主力合约 | 6074 | -36 | -22 | 258168 | -849 | 187130 | -16808 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5550 | 0 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5800 | 0 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, with a tendency for a bullish and volatile market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of contracts SF2508 and SF2509 are 5,652 and 5,668 respectively, up 162 and 160 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 6,857 and 307,634, and open interests of 8,912 and 193,447. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of contracts SM2508 and SM2509 are 5,906 and 5,914 respectively, up 110 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 1,330 and 390,134, and open interests of 11,185 and 360,025 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 352 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 254 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 246 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton (+100), in Ningxia is 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+75), in Qinghai is 5,250 - 5,300 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (up 100), and in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+100). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1,000 - 1,020 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1,080 - 1,110 US dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,780 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 500 tons. A steel mill in Jiangsu has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,900 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a procurement quantity of 1,000 tons; a steel mill in Jiangxi has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,830 yuan/ton in discounted base acceptance and tax - included, with a procurement quantity of 4,000 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Import Data**: In June 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 268.38 million tons, a decrease of 25.95 million tons (↓8.82%) compared with 294.33 million tons in May, and an increase of 54.01 million tons (↑25.19%) compared with 214.37 million tons in June last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative manganese ore import volume was 1,444.49 million tons, an increase of 45.44 million tons (↑3.25%) compared with 1,399.05 million tons in the same period in 2024. In June 2025, the top five manganese ore importing countries were South Africa (158.31 million tons), Ghana (46.02 million tons), Australia (22.43 million tons), Gabon (19.08 million tons), and Brazil (7.66 million tons), accounting for 94.46% of the total import volume [4]. - **Manganese Ore Production and Sales Data**: South32's 2025 fiscal year fourth - quarter report shows that the cumulative production of Australian manganese ore in the 2025 fiscal year was 1.106 billion tons, completing 111% of the annual plan; the cumulative production of South African manganese ore was 2.151 billion tons, completing 108% of the annual plan. In the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, the production of Australian manganese ore was 467 million tons, and the sales volume was 253 million tons. The production guidance for Australian manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year is 3.2 billion tons. The South African manganese ore production was 593 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous quarter and an 11% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 601 million tons, a 48% increase from the previous quarter and a 9% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for South African manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 2 billion tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon manganese and ferrosilicon) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. The supply - side of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July. Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the SM2509 contract closed at 5712, a 0.24% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close. The SF2509 contract closed at 5390, an 0.85% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3993 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 thousand tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.238 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.72 thousand tons; the social inventory was 9.1613 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.62 thousand tons [1] - On July 3, the domestic coking coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mine samples surveyed by Mysteel was 739 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.096 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 535 thousand tons. The coal mine inventory decreased significantly, some pit - mouth coal mines slightly raised their quotes, and the online bidding was also strong, with most coal prices rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Mysteel's statistics on 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises showed that the national capacity utilization rate was 40.34%, an increase of 1.13% from last week; the average daily output was 25730 tons, an increase of 125 tons; the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products (70% of the total) was 126789 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the national silicon manganese output (99% of the weekly supply) was 180110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. On the supply side, the production of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1]

Group 1: Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon production has slightly increased this week, but supply pressure remains due to the off-season demand [1] - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory has rebounded month-on-month, while warehouse receipts continue to decrease [1] - Steelmaking demand has weakened, with pig iron production slightly declining compared to last week and steel mills' profitability also decreasing [1] - Global manganese ore shipments have increased month-on-month, with significant growth in domestic arrivals, particularly from South Africa, Australia, and Ghana [1] - Manganese ore prices are hovering at low levels, which may lead to a marginal decline in future arrivals [1] - Cost pressures persist, with Ningxia entering a trial month for electricity spot settlement and coking coal prices not stabilizing [1] - The outlook for manganese silicon indicates ongoing supply pressure, with short-term price fluctuations expected to remain at the bottom [1] Group 2: Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production has slightly decreased this week due to ongoing weak demand, leading to continued declines in spot prices and increasing manufacturer losses [2] - Manufacturers' inventory has risen again due to previous restarts in Ningxia and Shaanxi [2] - Steelmaking demand has also shown a slight decline, with steel mills' profitability weakening [2] - Non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains weak, with both domestic and overseas demand being subdued [2] - Domestic price declines are providing some space for export profits, although marginal growth potential remains limited [2] - Coal costs are expected to remain weak and stable, with expectations of further reductions in electricity prices in Ningxia [2] - The outlook for silicon iron indicates a rising supply-demand imbalance, with short-term price fluctuations expected to remain at the bottom [2]

Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Group 1: Silicon Manganese Market Overview - The silicon manganese market experienced significant volatility in the last two trading days due to news influences [1] - Daily production of manganese silicon slightly increased this week, with recovery in Inner Mongolia and a slowdown in production cuts in Ningxia [1] - Supply pressure remains concentrated in the northern production areas, while the southern regions have limited capacity for supply compression [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Trends - Iron water production decreased week-on-week, while port throughput remained high, with increases primarily from water transfer [1] - In terms of finished product data, hot-rolled and rebar demand showed a week-on-week decline, while wire rod demand increased overall, maintaining a destocking pattern [1] - Cold-rolled products continue to face significant pressure, but low inventory and resilient demand for finished products suggest limited contradictions in the market [1] Group 3: Manganese Ore Supply and Pricing - Global manganese ore shipments increased this week, with floating inventory concentrated in South Africa and Ghana, indicating high future import volumes [1] - The recovery of South32's Australian mines will further boost global manganese ore supply, putting downward pressure on manganese ore prices [1] - Port traders are facing negative import profits due to overseas mines lowering forward prices, leading to feedback pressure on manganese silicon and potential supply release [1] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term supply pressure for manganese silicon is expected to persist, but increased news disturbances may influence market dynamics [1] - Despite expectations for high iron water production, the overall market for manganese silicon is likely to remain in a bottom oscillation phase, lacking strong upward trend support [1] Group 5: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Daily production of silicon iron decreased week-on-week, continuing to alleviate supply pressure, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [2] - Profit margins among main production area manufacturers are diverging, with loss-making companies maintaining production cuts and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declining [2] - The non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains strong due to raw material influences, but downstream demand is cautious with limited inquiries [2] Group 6: Price Strategy and Market Expectations - The market strategy for silicon iron suggests a range-bound trading approach, with short-term support levels around 5400 [2] - The outlook indicates a significant easing of supply-demand conflicts for silicon iron, but caution is advised regarding potential mismatches in supply and demand [2] - Price fluctuations are expected to continue, with the 07 contract projected to range between 5500-5800 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Silicon iron shows a weak and volatile trend due to the resonance of the black - plate sector; manganese silicon shows a weak and volatile trend as Australian ore resumes shipping [2]. - The trend strength of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - Silicon iron 2507 closed at 5638, down 52 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 120,368 and an open interest of 218,280; silicon iron 2509 closed at 5552, down 42, with a trading volume of 44,480 and an open interest of 149,333 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2506 closed at 5722, down 62, with a trading volume of 3,148 and an open interest of 19,309; manganese silicon 2509 closed at 5778, down 66, with a trading volume of 212,202 and an open interest of 397,001 [1]. Spot - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5630 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1]. Price Difference - The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 07 futures) was - 238 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) was - 148 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2507 - 2509 was 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2506 - 2509 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2507 - silicon iron 2507 was 100 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 226 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On May 20, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was 5300 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of 72 was 1020 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The mainstream price range of 6517 silicon - manganese in the north was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [1]. - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in May at 5800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from April, with a quantity of 2135 tons, up 435 tons from April. Several steel mills in different regions set their silicon - manganese purchase prices and quantities in May [1]. - In April 2025, China exported 3423.245 tons of silicon - manganese, and 8362.25 tons from January to April; imported 426.324 tons in April, and 4301.178 tons from January to April [3]. - In April 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 297.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 104.01 million tons (↑53.86%) and a year - on - year increase of 82.7 million tons (↑38.57%). From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 883.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.41 million tons (↓6.30%) [3]. - The top five manganese ore importing countries in April 2025 were South Africa (145.65 million tons), Gabon (69.87 million tons), Ghana (55.40 million tons), Cote d'Ivoire (10.60 million tons), and Australia (6.30 million tons), accounting for 96.87% of the total import volume [3]. - South32 announced the resumption of Australian manganese ore export sales from its Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO). The first batch of manganese ore is being loaded and is expected to leave the newly rebuilt terminal in the next few days. Export sales are expected to increase in the June quarter of 2025 and normalize in fiscal year 26 [4]. - NMT announced the loading price of manganese ore for China in June 2025. The price of South African lump ore with a minimum Mn content of 36% is 3.85 dollars/ton - degree, and that of 35% is 3.75 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [4].

Group 1: Silicon Manganese - The production of silicon manganese is decreasing, with reductions expanding in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing, leading to a significant decline in output [1] - The continuous decline in market prices is causing hedging profits to turn into losses, resulting in a decrease in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [1] - Demand remains strong with high pig iron production and recovering steel mill profits, while low inventory levels persist, indicating resilience in finished product demand [1] - Global manganese ore shipments have decreased, particularly due to a sharp drop in arrivals from South Africa, leading to a reduction in port inventories [1] - Despite the decrease in port inventories, future manganese ore shipments are expected to remain high, putting pressure on port traders due to negative profit margins [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that silicon manganese prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, with support strengthening as warehouse receipts decrease [1] Group 2: Silicon Iron - Recent environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are expected to lead to a reduction in daily production by approximately 800 tons from major producers [2] - Overall, silicon iron daily production has decreased, alleviating supply pressure, although inventory levels remain at a medium to high level [2] - Demand for iron remains high, with steel mill profits recovering and resilient demand for finished products, while non-steel demand for magnesium metal is limited due to cautious purchasing [2] - The cost side shows stable prices for raw materials like Lantan, with limited supply-demand conflicts [2] - Future expectations suggest that the supply-demand imbalance for silicon iron is easing, with potential price stabilization and rebound driven by valuation recovery and macroeconomic factors [2]