光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2026 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：关注成本扰动 库存：硅铁样本企业库存环比小幅下降。依据钢联数据，截至2月27日，60家硅铁样本企业库存为70400吨，环比下降1110吨，同比下 降7580吨。 p 2 铁合金：关注成本扰动 锰 硅 供应：春节期间锰硅生产企业开工率平稳，节后逐渐上涨。依据钢联线数据，1月全国锰硅产量85.4万吨，环比小幅增加1.05万吨，同 比下降3.3万吨。节后首周，锰硅周产量19.74万吨，周环比增加1.84%，仍位于近年来同期低位。 需求：节后钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比下降，2月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比增加。节后首周，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.02万吨， 周环比下降1.3%，螺纹产量占五大材总产量比例同样偏低，需求端支撑有限。 库存：样本企业库存环比增加，持续刷近年来同期新高。截至2月27日，63家样本企业库存39.83万吨，环比增加0.89%，同比增加约25 万吨。 成本与利润：锰矿稳中有升，成本端有支撑。依据钢联数据，截至 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 【交易策略】 3 月 2 日，铁合金期货价格整体上涨。硅铁主力合约 5764，上涨 0.66%，持仓减少 14296 手；锰硅主力合约收盘 6082，上涨 0.93%，持仓增加 8585 手。 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日变动 | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | 38 | SF主力合约 5764 | | 272 | 275339 | -71618 | 221874 | -14296 | | 56 | SM主力合约 6082 | | 312 | 440382 | -135210 | 454840 | 8585 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 现货价格 | 硅 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 12 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5500 | -76 | -150 | 130697 | 46088 | 162337 | 25052 | | SM主力合约 | 5800 | -24 | -84 | 101203 | 1754 | 378385 | 10954 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | -20 | -70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | 0 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 Z0021009 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5650 | -4 | -86 | 130009 | 36892 | 89527 | 52894 | | SM主力合约 | 5884 | 16 | -42 | 161205 | 42354 | 350906 | -3315 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5440 | 20 | 40 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | -20 | | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,836.00 | +2.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,620.00 | -4.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 552,043.00 | +15659.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 349,010.00 | +24751.00↑ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -44,276.00 | -2178.00↓ 硅铁前20 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5736 | 104 | 126 | 228839 | 106016 | 172651 | -33983 | | SM主力合约 | 5926 | 94 | 112 | 256191 | 116337 | 362400 | -12587 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5400 | 50 | 30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | 0 | -10 | | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5632 | 28 | 76 | 122823 | 10420 | 185904 | -13253 | | SM主力合约 | 5832 | 14 | 46 | 139854 | 35909 | 374987 | 3539 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | -10 | -10 | | ...

黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 22 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 5610 | | 54 | 0 | 108864 | -21998 | 244000 | -11689 | | SM主力合约 5814 | | 28 | -56 | 141601 | 6241 | 356074 | 23782 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | 20 | -80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -70 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction still needs to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation has been priced in, there is insufficient expectation for demand - side improvement in the future, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term [6][10]. - For silicomanganese, it is in a state where its own supply - demand is in a slight surplus, but the overall manganese element is in a balanced state. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicomanganese price. There is no clear signal of a trend - based rebound yet, and the price is expected to remain weak in the future. Consider short - term operations such as shorting when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [6][123]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Ferrosilicon 1. Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract increased by 0.96%, closing at 5672 yuan/ton. There were price increases in the main production areas and some trading areas [10]. 2. Supply - The national start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week. The daily average output was 14,065 tons, a decrease of 1.30% from last week. The weekly supply was 98,500 tons. Production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly [10][37]. 3. Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5492 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5911 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 5593 yuan/ton. The immediate profit in Inner Mongolia was - 222 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 343 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 44.81%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average output was 167,600 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons. The lanthanum coke inventory was 778,200 tons, an increase of 681,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 1,169,240,000 tons, a decrease of 676,000 tons [10]. 5. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 18,071 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. In terms of non - steel demand, the price of magnesium metal was firm, and downstream replenishment increased at the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient [10]. 6. Inventory - As of December 25th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 63,610 tons, a decrease of 2.38% from last week [10]. II. Silicomanganese 1. Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract increased by 0.76%, closing at 5840 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading areas [123]. 2. Supply - The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17% from last week. The daily average output was 27,510 tons, an increase of 620 tons. The weekly output was 192,570 tons, a 2.31% increase from last week [123]. 3. Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 210 yuan/ton [123]. 4. Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipping volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 20.31% week - on - week, Australian by 1.13%, and Gabonese by 49.89%, while Ghanaian increased by 100%. The arrival volume in China from different countries also had various changes [123]. 5. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of December 19th, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.533 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week [123]. 6. Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types was 112,653 tons, a 0.22% increase from last week. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [123]. 7. Inventory - As of June 20th, the national inventory was 387,000 tons, an increase of 2500 tons from last week [123].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a black metal daily report dated December 16, 2025, focusing on ferroalloys [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF主力合约收盘价5482, down 36 from the previous day and up 20 for the week, with a trading volume of 282348 (down 125888) and an open interest of 257168 (up 716) [2] - SM主力合约收盘价5736, down 22 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a trading volume of 160310 (down 64885) and an open interest of 278789 (up 5134) [2] Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, spot prices in some regions decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton on December 16. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, down 20 from the previous day and up 80 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decrease. For example, silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 for the week [2] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -202, up 16 from the previous day and up 60 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -196, up 22 from the previous day and up 26 for the week [2] - The SF - SM spread was -254, down 14 from the previous day and up 16 for the week [2] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were mostly stable, with the Gabon lump price down 0.5 for the week [2] - Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton for the week [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Ferrosilicon - On December 16, the spot price was stable to weak. The supply side may decline slightly this week due to poor enterprise profits and new maintenance in some Qinghai manufacturers [5] - The demand side is under pressure as November macro data weakened and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased [5] - The overall fundamentals remain in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to oscillate at the bottom [5] Silicomanganese - On December 16, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and silicomanganese spot prices were stable to weak [5] - The supply side is expected to decline due to poor manufacturer profit levels [5] - The demand side is dragged down by the deterioration of November real - estate data and the decline of rebar apparent consumption and production [5] - The cost side is supported as manganese ore port inventories are at a low level and overseas mines' January quotes have increased slightly, but the upside is restricted by demand expectations [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, prices will oscillate at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 5: Important Information - UMK announced its January 2026 manganese ore quote to China, with the South African semi - carbonate lump price at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] - NMT announced its January 2026 manganese ore shipping quote to China, with the Mn36% (minimum) South African semi - carbonate lump at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] Group 6: Related Attachments - Include graphs such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][15][18][20][23]