Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. The factors driving price increases have weakened, and the market may shift to a rapid decline in terminal steel demand. Short - term iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate. The trading strategy suggests high - level hedging for spot in the unilateral trading, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: This week, iron ore prices fluctuated narrowly, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. The factors driving price increases have weakened, and the market may shift to a rapid decline in terminal steel demand [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: mainly fluctuate, with high - level hedging for spot; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global and Regional Shipments**: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly week - on - week. In 2025 so far, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% (7 million tons). Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% (7.3 million tons), and Brazil's were 7.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% (10.7 million tons). Last week, the shipments of mainstream mines increased significantly week - on - week, and in the past month, they have continuously contributed year - on - year increments. However, there was a differentiation within mainstream mines, with Australia basically flat year - on - year and Brazil continuing high - growth [8][10]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: In 2025 so far, the weekly average of non - Australia and non - Brazil mines' shipments was 5.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% (3.6 million tons). Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments averaged 2.32 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% (7.3 million tons), and Brazil's non - mainstream shipments averaged 2.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% (8.2 million tons). Non - mainstream mine shipments started to improve in June and continued high - growth from July to August, and are expected to continue to contribute certain increments [19]. - **Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased slightly week - on - week, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory in steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, resulting in a slight week - on - week decline in the total inventory of imported iron ore in China. In the past month, the total inventory of imported iron ore was basically flat, and the total inventory of terminal steel products increased continuously week - on - week, leading to a slight increase in the total domestic iron element inventory. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore have weakened slightly [27]. Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: In the third quarter of 2025 so far, domestic hot metal production increased by 2.6% (3.5 million tons) year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 3% (4.7 million tons) year - on - year. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 6.4% (4.2 million tons) year - on - year, and the non - building materials apparent demand increased by 0.8% (0.6 million tons) year - on - year. The domestic crude steel consumption (excluding exports) decreased by 2.6% (3.6 million tons) year - on - year. Recently, the domestic terminal steel inventory has been increasing continuously week - on - week. Compared with the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the demand for manufacturing steel decreased rapidly week - on - week, suppressing the current terminal steel demand [33]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year, among which India's crude steel production increased by 9.2% year - on - year. The demand for crude steel overseas remained at a relatively high level, and it is expected that India's steel demand will continue to contribute a large increment in the third quarter [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to experience a relatively strong and volatile trend, driven by macro - level positive factors. However, if the spot demand fails to improve, the upward space for iron ore prices will be limited, as the basis has rapidly shrunk to a multi - year low [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The impetus for end - of - fiscal - year output boost in Western Australia is coming to an end. Freight trends suggest that the short - term shipments of major Australian mines may decline on a month - on - month basis. The global iron ore shipment volume in the current week was 35.067 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.687 million tons. The cumulative year - to - date (YTD) global shipment volume was 750.293 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.703 million tons or 0.2%. Australian shipments decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4][5][17]. - Among major mines, BHP and Fortescue had end - of - fiscal - year output boosts. Non - mainstream mines showed that Peru's production recovered, and South Africa's output increased on a month - on - month basis. In the domestic market, the capacity utilization rate of mines in North China improved, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [18][20][27]. Demand - Blast furnace production remains at a relatively high level, and the output of the five major steel products is showing an upward trend. The daily average molten iron output of 247 enterprises was 2.4229 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0235 million tons [4][5][32]. - The substitution effect of scrap steel is relatively weak, as scrap steel arrivals are relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron continues to widen [33]. Macro - level - The optimistic sentiment spreading from the equity market has boosted the valuation of commodities. The strengthening expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening US dollar index are favorable for the valuation of iron ore [5]. Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract showed a relatively strong and volatile trend, closing at 716.5 yuan/ton. The open interest was 679,000 lots, a decrease of 3,100 lots. The average daily trading volume was 273,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 146,000 lots [7]. Spot Price Performance - Spot prices have not shown a significant follow - up increase, and the basis has further weakened. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) decreased by 3 yuan/ton, and the price of PB powder (61.5%) decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared to last week [12]. Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory has not been significantly realized, and the inventories of Australian and Brazilian ores have shown differentiation. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 139.302 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.361 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.584 million tons. The block ore inventory has been continuously decreasing [37][38][39]. Downstream Profit - The prices of raw material futures have strengthened, and the basis has weakened, leading to a differentiation between spot and futures market profits [41]. Spot Category Price Difference - Recently, the inventory differentiation trend between powder ore and block ore has been obvious, and the price difference between PB block and PB powder has gradually strengthened [44]. Futures Month - to - Month Spread - The month - to - month spread has generally shown a "volatile and weak" trend recently. Although it is slightly higher year - on - year, the 9 - 1 spread has declined to a phased low on a month - on - month basis [50]. Basis Performance - The futures market has shown strong performance, while spot demand has remained weak. Recently, the basis has significantly shrunk [51].