更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 铂金供需格局分析与展望 20260104 摘要 Q&A 近年来铂金和锂金市场的表现如何? 2025年,黄金和白银价格屡创新高,而铂金的涨幅也创下历史新高,成为三种 贵金属中价格上涨幅度最大的。美国在 2024年和 2025 年发布的关键金属矿产排 名名单中, 铂族金属因对 GDP 影响显著而名列前茅。 铂金主要以何种形式存在及其应用领域有哪些? 铂金主要以三种形式存在:铂条、海绵铂和铂粒。除了常见的铂条外,海绵铂和 铂粒由于其粉末状形态,更适合工业应用,但需要特定容器存储,并对仓储温度 争 匆 - · 全球铂金供应主要集中在南非(70%)、津巴布韦(8%)和俄罗斯(11-12%), 中国占比仅 1.5%。预计 2026年全球矿产供应将达 174.9吨,但长期资本 支出减少可能限制供应增长。 2025年铂金市场预计出现 21.6 吨的供需缺口,尽管矿产和回收供应增加, ● 但汽车需求下降和工业需求减少导致总体需求下降 5%。 预计 2026年铂金市场可能出现小幅盈余(0.6 吨),但这一预测基于贸 ● 易紧张局势缓解和 ETF 资金流出的假设,实际情况仍 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and there is a supply - demand imbalance in the market [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Global Platinum Supply Pattern 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Concentration and Elasticity - South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries' total output accounted for only 8% [1] - Long - term trends, under - performance of new projects, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum - producing countries. In 2024, factors such as power outages and production restructuring led to a decline in global platinum output [1] - In 2024, global platinum production was 195.9 tons. Global mined platinum output decreased by 567 kg to 155.9 tons, and the proportion of recycled platinum was 20.4%. The global platinum recycling volume increased by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons. It is expected that in 2025, global mined platinum output will decrease by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and its future demand is expected to exceed Japan's [6] - In 2024, global platinum group metal demand decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a global platinum supply shortage of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry platinum demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons [11] - The global platinum balance sheet shows trends in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand differences from 2017 to 2025f [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global platinum supply is highly concentrated with low elasticity, and the output of major producers is insufficient. In 2024, the global platinum output declined, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2025. The demand for platinum in different regions and fields varies, and the global platinum market has a supply - demand gap [1][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Global Platinum Supply Pattern - **Supply Concentration**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output decreased by 4% year - on - year to 120 tons, accounting for 71% of the global total. Zimbabwe and Russia each accounted for 11%, and other countries accounted for 8% [1] - **Supply Constraints**: Long - term trends, sub - optimal new project implementation, mine depletion, and shutdowns have continuously restricted supply, resulting in insufficient output elasticity of major global platinum producers. In 2024, factors such as power outages in Brazil and Zimbabwe, restructuring in North America, and early production decline in Canada dragged down platinum output [1] - **Production and Recycling in 2024**: The global platinum output in 2024 was 195.9 tons. The global mined platinum volume decreased by 567 kg year - on - year to 155.9 tons, and the global recycled platinum accounted for 20.4%, with the recycling volume increasing by 3% year - on - year to 39.97 tons [4] - **Production Forecast for 2025**: It is expected that the global mined platinum volume will decline by 4% year - on - year to 150.1 tons in 2025 due to the decline in South African output and the restructuring of Stillwater in North America. The catalyst recycling volume is expected to improve significantly, but the US tariff on cars may drag down the US platinum recycling volume [4] 1.2 Platinum Global Balance - **Consumption Regions and Fields**: The main consumption regions of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. China's demand accounts for 26% of the global total, with industrial demand being the largest. Western Europe and North America account for 20% and 18% respectively, with automotive catalyst demand being the largest. Japan accounts for 9%, mainly in automotive catalysts and jewelry. India's industrial demand is small, but its automotive catalyst and jewelry demand are increasing, and it may exceed Japan in the future [6] - **Demand in 2024**: In 2024, the global demand for platinum group metals decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons. Automotive industry demand decreased by 3% to 63.4 tons, jewelry demand decreased slightly by 0.3 tons to 38.3 tons, industrial demand remained flat at 63.4 tons, and hydrogen energy demand increased slightly by 0.3 tons to 2 tons, accounting for 1% [11] - **Global Platinum Balance Table**: The table shows the changes in mine production, recycling, total demand, and supply - demand balance of global platinum from 2017 to 2025f. The supply gap is expected to widen in 2025 [13]