Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - **Industry News**: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - **Industry News**: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core Views - For lead, due to unresolved raw material shortages and some secondary lead smelters reducing production, with demand in the off - season, cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation, and macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1] - For zinc, with a stable and positive macro sentiment but weak fundamentals, short - term zinc prices are expected to be in wide - range consolidation. In the medium to long term, TC has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may shift down. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended, and macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat at 16,750 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead futures main contract closed 0.21% lower at 16,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 21.04% to 32,590 lots, and the open interest increased by 0.75% to 30,725 lots. The LME 3 - month lead futures closed at 1,996.50 dollars/ton, up 0.38%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.58% to 8.48 [1] - **Industry News**: A small and medium - sized secondary lead smelter in Southwest China plans to resume production in late May after years of shutdown. A small secondary lead smelter in Central China postponed its resumption due to market observation and internal factors [1] - **Fundamentals**: Primary lead production was stable with a slight increase. In secondary lead, waste lead - acid battery prices rose, and recyclers had limited supplies. Some smelters cut or stopped production due to cost - price inversion, and the operating rate declined significantly. Demand was in the off - season, and downstream purchasing was weak [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.84% to 22,770 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed 1.72% higher at 22,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 28.46% to 219,108 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6.33% to 104,941 lots. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,765 dollars/ton, up 2.22%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.48% to 8.21 [1] - **Industry News**: Longxing Mine under Zijin Mining in Russia's Tuva Republic faces financial difficulties due to sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation. It produced about 71,300 metal tons of zinc concentrate and about 4,750 metal tons of lead concentrate in 2024. Zhongse Co., Ltd. owns 5 mining rights and 3 exploration rights, and its Baiyinnuoer and Aobao zinc mines had certain production volumes in 2024 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters had sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise. Production restrictions due to raw material shortages were weakened, and production and profits improved. After the May Day holiday, some enterprises resumed production, but terminal demand did not improve. Different downstream sectors had mixed performance, with uncertainties in export orders for zinc oxide due to anti - dumping investigations [1]