证券研究报告 | 2025年06月28日 金融工程日报 沪指单边下行，连板率创近一个月新低 核心观点 金融工程日报 | 金融工程·数量化投资 | | --- | | 证券分析师：张欣慰 联系人：李子靖 | 市场资金流向：截至 20250626 两融余额为 18385 亿元，其中融资余额 18266 亿元，融券余额 119 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.6%。 折溢价：20250626 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是证券 ETF 先锋，ETF 折价较多的是 产业升级 ETF。近半年以来大宗交易日均成交金额达到 12 亿元，20250626 当日大宗交易成交金额为 13 亿元，近半年以来平均折价率 5.61%，当日折价 率为 7.00%。近一年以来上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 股指期货 主力合约的年化贴水率中位数分别为 1.53%, 3.20%, 9.05%，12.09%，当日 上证 50 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.24%，处于近一年来 38%分位点， 当日沪深 300 股指期货主力合约年化贴水率为 4.80%，处于近一年来 38%分 位 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月06日 金融工程日报 沪指震荡微升，有色领涨、新消费集体调整 市场表现：今日(20250606) 规模指数中沪深 300 指数表现较好，板块指数 中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指数表现较好。有色金 属、通信、石油石化、建筑、基础化工行业表现较好，综合金融、传媒、非 银、汽车、纺织服装行业表现较差。海航系、铅锌矿、草甘膦、数据中心互 联、肝素钠等概念表现较好，珠宝、稳定币、宠物经济、新冠抗原检测、培 育钻石等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 65 只股票涨停，有 5 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日收盘收益为 1.77%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-1.20%。今日封板率 61%，较前日下降 8%，连板率 21%，较前日提升 4%。 市场资金流向：截至 20250605 两融余额为 18117 亿元，其中融资余额 17995 亿元，融券余额 122 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.3%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 8.7%。 折溢价：20250605 当日 ETF 溢价较多的是信创 ETF 易方达，ETF 折价较多的 是恒生汽车 ETF。近 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a reasonable valuation range of 15.41 to 18.49 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 47% to 77% from the current price of 10.24 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the domestic zinc smelting industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes mining, smelting, and sales of non-ferrous metals, particularly lead, zinc, gold, and silver [1][27]. - The company has a robust production capacity, with an annual output of over 40,000 tons of lead and zinc metals, along with 1.8 to 2 tons of gold and approximately 60 tons of silver [1][38]. - The company has recently completed a significant asset restructuring, acquiring core lead and zinc assets, which has enhanced its operational capabilities and resource base [16][47]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company primarily engages in the mining and smelting of lead, zinc, and precious metals, with nearly half of its gross profit derived from precious metals [1]. - It operates three mines and has a total mining capacity of 860,000 tons per year, with significant resources in lead, zinc, gold, and silver [2][32]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a substantial increase in net profit, projecting 1.1 billion CNY for 2025, representing a 40% growth from the previous year [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 19.4 billion CNY in 2023 to 20.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% [4][28]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total lead and zinc metal resource of approximately 870,000 tons, with gold and silver resources of 43 tons and 1,259 tons, respectively [35]. - The mining rights include the Water Mouth Mountain lead-zinc mine and the Bafang copper mine, which contribute to the company's strong resource base [2][19]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights an improving market for zinc processing fees, with domestic zinc concentrate processing fees showing an upward trend, which is expected to enhance smelting profits [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable resource endowment, with high-grade ore and a well-structured supply chain that supports its production needs [32][35].