Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, effective August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices on the COMEX, highlighting the unexpected nature of the policy and its impact on the market [3][9]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 50% tariff applies to copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings and electrical components, while excluding copper ore, concentrates, and cathodes [9][10]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices fell by over 18% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop in history [3][5]. - The market had anticipated a broader application of tariffs, leading to a miscalculation by major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which had advised clients to buy call options on copper futures prior to the announcement [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The COMEX-LME (London Metal Exchange) copper premium rose from a neutral position to approximately 30% before the tariff announcement, driven by speculation about the tariffs [5][10]. - After the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper premium returned to a neutral position, indicating a significant market correction [5][10]. - Investors who had taken long positions in copper futures prior to the announcement faced substantial losses due to the rapid price decline [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. has a significant annual copper consumption of approximately 1.7 million tons, with a production shortfall of about 770,000 tons, necessitating imports primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9][10]. - The U.S. copper import policy aims to protect domestic production capabilities, as the country has limited smelting capacity, producing only about 3.3% of global refined copper [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market will need to adjust to the new tariff environment, with potential long-term implications for supply and demand dynamics, particularly as the market digests the impact of the tariffs [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the main factors influencing copper prices in the second half of the year will include copper concentrate shortages, rising raw material costs, and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut [13][14]. - The copper market is expected to return to fundamental supply and demand considerations, with the recent tariff policy's negative impact largely absorbed by the market [14]. - There is a recommendation for investors to consider trading in less policy-affected markets like LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) copper futures, as the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact despite short-term volatility [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP of the US and Europe in the second quarter was better than expected, and the Fed kept its policy unchanged. The market should focus on domestic important meetings, the progress of "anti - involution", the impact of "reciprocal tariffs", and corresponding commodity sectors. For investment, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [1][2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economy, but policy urgency decreased. In June, exports were strong, while social retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined, and real estate sales were weak. The Politburo meeting proposed more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and local governments will open applications for parenting subsidies in late August [1]. "Anti - Involution" Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized governing low - price and disorderly competition. Policy expectations for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have increased, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' steady - growth work plans are to be introduced, and the petrochemical and chemical industries' old - device assessment is underway [2]. "Reciprocal Tariffs" Impact - After the "Big Beautiful" bill, Trump focused on external pressure to promote tariff negotiations. Tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down commodities affected by external demand. The US Q2 GDP growth was 3%, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The eurozone's Q2 economic growth was better than expected, and the rate - cut expectation declined [3]. Corresponding Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, and the supply of non - ferrous metals remains tight. The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. Some chemical products' "anti - involution" space is worth attention, and agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. Parenting subsidy applications will be open by August 31. The US and China will extend the suspension of part of reciprocal tariffs. Trump imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the US economic data and Fed's policy were released [7][8].

Economic Data - The U.S. GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2025, following a growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024 [1] - ADP Research reported that U.S. employment increased by 62,000 in April, marking the slowest growth in nine months, falling short of the expected 115,000 and down from 155,000 in the previous month [1] Market Reaction - U.S. stock index futures saw significant declines, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.22%, S&P 500 futures down 0.82%, and Dow Jones futures down 0.35% [1] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record high of $162 billion in March, with imports rising by $16.3 billion to $342.7 billion, while exports only increased by $2.2 billion [9] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that unless there is a rapid change, consumer discretionary spending and business capital expenditures are likely to continue deteriorating in Q2 [9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that copper futures in New York have seen a significant decline of 6.5% due to the contraction of the U.S. economy in the first quarter, marking the first decline since 2022 with a recorded rate of -0.3%, which is the lowest since the second quarter of 2022 [1]

来源|极速财讯 3月31日，现货黄金价格延续牛市走势，盘中突破3120美元/盎司，连续第五个交易日刷新历史纪录，距离此前升破3000美元/盎司仅过去半个月， 今年以来累计上涨超18%。 国内足金饰品金价也应声上涨，截至3月31日中午，周大福为每克936元、老凤祥为每克935元、周生生为每克935元、老庙黄金为每克934元。 这一波"黄金狂潮"的核心推手直指美国总统特朗普的关税政策，其"说一套做一套"的贸易保护主义策略，不仅撕裂全球供应链，更引发市场对美元体 系根基动摇的深度忧虑。 据《华尔街日报》披露，特朗普政府虽在上周多次释放"对等关税将比原计划更温和"的信号，甚至暗示对部分盟友实施关税豁免，但内部文件显示其 团队正加速制定覆盖面更广、税率更高的方案。最新草案显示，特朗普已转向强硬立场，要求将原先针对特定国家的惩罚性关税，升级为覆盖全部贸 易伙伴的20%全球性关税。 加拿大已取消特斯拉电动车补贴，欧盟计划对美国威士忌、牛仔裤等商品加征报复性关税，形成"贸易战螺旋"。政策的不确定性导致资金加速涌入黄 金、铜等避险资产，纽约铜期货创历史新高，全球囤铜潮兴起，凸显供应链恐慌。 黄金暴涨的背后逻辑：美元霸权终结的" ...