以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 周金涛离世将近十年，中国投资界仍然没有任何一句话能够比"人生发财靠康波"更有号召力。 直到2025年的今天，全国二手房价格，包括一度被视为永远涨的京沪深，几乎抹去了2016年以来的涨 幅。另一边，国际金价从2016年初每盎司不到1100美元飙升到超过4200美元，并持续在历史峰值上来 回试探人心。 中国人习惯将冗长的俄式命名简化，陀思妥耶夫斯基=陀氏，柴可夫斯基=老柴，康德拉季耶夫好不容易 把资本主义经济简化成一个50-60年一循环的周期理论，我们又简化成了康波二字。 作为这一理论杰出的继承者，周金涛曾在2016年春天留下了极具"水晶球"色彩的预判： 2018年将是康 波周期的至暗时刻，2019年则是新一轮周期的起点。这是1985年以后出生的人，生命中第一次发财的 机会。 那年年初，他在南开大学校友会上乐观地定下一个"四年之约"："到2020年一定要再来参加一次校友 会，到时候我要看谁还在台上发言，我认为到了那个时刻还在台上发言的，至少作为一代人来讲，才是 真正的成功[2]。" 命运却没有给他赴约的机会。 2016年冬，周金涛因胰腺 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the enduring influence of Zhou Jintao's "Kondratiev wave" theory in the Chinese investment community, emphasizing its relevance in understanding economic cycles and investment opportunities [2][3][4] - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be a dark moment in the Kondratiev cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, which was seen as a significant opportunity for those born after 1985 [2][4] - The article reflects on the volatility of global markets post-2018, highlighting the unpredictability of events such as the U.S.-China trade war and the impact of monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - Zhou Jintao's assertion to "sell houses and invest in gold" was based on his belief that the real estate cycle had peaked, yet contrary trends in housing prices and gold prices were observed in subsequent years [4][6] - By 2025, housing prices in major cities had largely erased gains made since 2016, while gold prices surged significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][6] - The article notes that Zhou's predictions about the cyclical nature of real estate and commodities were not fully realized due to unexpected market resilience and external economic factors [4][6] Group 3 - Zhou Jintao's "Tao Movement Cycle Theory" integrates the Kondratiev wave with real estate, investment, and inventory cycles, suggesting that individuals experience limited wealth opportunities throughout their lives [14][20] - His framework posits that individuals have only three significant wealth opportunities in a 60-year life span, with the first opportunity for those born after 1985 occurring in 2019 [14][20] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a means to navigate personal financial decisions and investment strategies [14][20] Group 4 - The article critiques Zhou Jintao's underestimation of the resilience of the Chinese real estate market and the strength of the U.S. dollar system, which prolonged certain economic trends beyond his predictions [18][20] - It highlights the unexpected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the AI revolution on commodity prices and market dynamics, which deviated from Zhou's forecasts [26][32] - The discussion points to a shift in focus from traditional commodities to new resources driven by technological advancements and changing market demands [26][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff re - imposition, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. The report suggests waiting for the price to fall before laying out long positions [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data 1. Shanghai Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper inventory was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi average price was 86,668.945, the SMM premium copper open - discount - average price was 100, the Shanghai copper basis was 1,580, and the trading volume was 210,984 lots, a decrease of 80,438 lots from the previous day [1] 2. London Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,598.5, a decrease of 203.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 153, a decrease of 56.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 54.87, a decrease of 171.91 from the previous day [1] 3. COMEX Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the total COMEX copper inventory was 342,280, an increase of 2,755 from the previous day; the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.998, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day; the open interest was 187,566 lots, a decrease of 14,265 lots from the previous day [1] 4. Price Ratio and Premium Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9643, an increase of 0.08 from the previous day; the SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 110, and the SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 53, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and fiscal easing in multiple countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines leading to a tight supply - demand outlook, may make the price of Shanghai copper more likely to rise than fall [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the closing price was 82370 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 138460 lots, a decrease of 36165 lots; open interest was 213792 lots, a reduction of 15258 lots; inventory was 25603 tons, down 954 tons. The spot - futures basis and various copper price differentials also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 29, 2025, was 10428.5 US dollars, up 223.5 US dollars from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month and 3 - 15 - month contract spreads had positive changes [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 29, 2025, was 4.906 US dollars, an increase of 0.12 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 323207 tons, up 2151 tons [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, which has increased compared to last week. This has tightened the supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates are trending down, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: With the significant increase in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 yuan and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 yuan for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9800 - 10000 US dollars and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 US dollars for London copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for COMEX copper [2].

Core Viewpoint - The London copper market is experiencing significant volatility, currently fluctuating around the psychological level of $10,000 per ton, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 13.6% and over 23% since April's low [1][3] Market Sentiment - The copper price is in a phase of tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. On the bullish side, a weaker dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts make copper more attractive for buyers holding other currencies, potentially supporting demand. Additionally, a decline in China's refined copper production, influenced by scrap supply issues, tax policies, and factory maintenance, provides further price support. China's resilient demand, driven by strong service sector activity and increasing manufacturing orders, also underpins copper prices [3][4] - On the bearish side, weak overseas demand is a critical concern, with the US manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory, indicating sluggish manufacturing activity and poor overseas demand for copper. Furthermore, significant increases in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) suggest that the spot market demand has not fully absorbed supply, leading to ongoing inventory pressure. Global economic uncertainties, such as concerns over US tariff policies, also dampen market sentiment [3][4] Institutional and Market Analysis - In the short term, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong but volatile trend due to tight supply conditions and weak US economic data, which may reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, indirectly boosting copper prices. In the medium to long term, the demand outlook for copper remains positive, particularly in emerging industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, where copper applications are growing. However, insufficient global copper mining investment may limit long-term supply, supporting a bullish price trend [4][5] - If overseas inventories remain high and global demand does not improve, especially with continued weakness in the US and European markets, the potential for significant copper price increases may be limited. Market participants are closely monitoring key economic data, such as US non-farm payrolls, for insights into policy direction [4][5] Overall Market Condition - The London copper market is currently experiencing a phase of short-term strength but notable volatility, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors leading to cautious sentiment among market participants. The overall upward trend in copper prices this year is evident, but recent high-level fluctuations reflect the interplay of various market sentiments. Tight supply and resilient Chinese demand support prices, while weak overseas demand and high inventories pose constraints. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain strong but with limited upward momentum, while medium-term structural support exists, albeit with caution regarding global economic uncertainties and inventory pressures [5]

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

Core Viewpoint - London copper prices are experiencing a decline due to heightened trade tensions, which are negatively impacting the overall sentiment in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Impact - During the European afternoon trading session, three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by 0.6%, reaching $9,602 per ton [1] - Concerns over economic slowdown have emerged following President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico, which may weaken demand for industrial metals [1] Group 2: Tariff Effects - Trump has also announced a 50% tariff on imported red copper starting August 1, although specific details are yet to be disclosed, adding further pressure on copper prices [1] - Barclays analysts suggest that rising costs for U.S. buyers could lead to a temporary demand gap, exerting additional pressure on copper prices [1] - However, Barclays expects the impact on LME copper prices to be short-lived [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that in the second half of the year, credit bond yields may follow government bond yields downward, but the supply of credit bonds may increase while demand weakens, leading to a risk of widening credit spreads [3][6][7]. Market Overview Domestic Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3461, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 1.91% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10535, with a daily increase of 1.17% and a weekly increase of 3.73% [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968, with a daily increase of 0.62% and a weekly increase of 1.95% [1]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 2164, with a daily increase of 1.90% and a weekly increase of 5.69% [1]. International Market - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24070, with a daily decrease of 0.63% and a weekly increase of 3.20% [4]. - The Dow Jones Index closed at 44484, with a daily decrease of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 3.82% [4]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6227, with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 3.44% [4]. Credit Bond Strategy - The report emphasizes that the overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of the year should focus on extending duration, as it may still be a better strategy. Additionally, opportunities in lower-rated bonds should be monitored [6][7]. - Among the three major sectors, it is recommended to pay more attention to municipal investment bonds, as their supply is expected to weaken, followed by financial bonds [6][7]. Sector Strategies 1. **Municipal Investment Bonds**: Focus on opportunities for spread compression in high-quality municipal bonds from good regions, as policies may alleviate credit risks [7]. 2. **Industrial Bonds**: Monitor opportunities for spread recovery in state-owned enterprise bonds after risk events have eased, as well as coupon opportunities from state-owned real estate and construction bonds [7]. 3. **Financial Bonds**: Pay attention to overall opportunities arising from reduced supply pressure on perpetual bonds and structural opportunities from the merger of rural commercial banks [7]. 4. **Technology Innovation Bonds**: Opportunities for spread compression are worth noting, as their rates are slightly higher than green bonds [7].