Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff re - imposition, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. The report suggests waiting for the price to fall before laying out long positions [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data 1. Shanghai Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai copper inventory was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi average price was 86,668.945, the SMM premium copper open - discount - average price was 100, the Shanghai copper basis was 1,580, and the trading volume was 210,984 lots, a decrease of 80,438 lots from the previous day [1] 2. London Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,598.5, a decrease of 203.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 153, a decrease of 56.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 54.87, a decrease of 171.91 from the previous day [1] 3. COMEX Copper Data - On October 14, 2025, the total COMEX copper inventory was 342,280, an increase of 2,755 from the previous day; the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.998, an increase of 0.15 from the previous day; the open interest was 187,566 lots, a decrease of 14,265 lots from the previous day [1] 4. Price Ratio and Premium Data - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9643, an increase of 0.08 from the previous day; the SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) - average price was 110, and the SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) - average price was 53, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [1]

得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源:SHM和WIND。风险提示:期市有风险,按资深谨慎! | | 变重名称 | 2025-09-29 | 2025-09-26 | 2025-09-19 较昨日变动 | | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 82370 | 82470 | 79910 | -100.00 | | | 治制期货混联合的 | 成交量(手) | 138460 | 174625 | 48845 | -36, 165. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 213792 | 229050 | 116552 | -15. 258. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 25603 | 26557 | 31838 | -954.00 | | | | 沪铜县寿 | -160 | 15 | 80 | -175.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 82210 | 82485 | 79990 | -275.00 | | | | SMM平水铜开贴水一平均价 | -40 | -40 | 30 | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London copper market is experiencing significant volatility, currently fluctuating around the psychological level of $10,000 per ton, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 13.6% and over 23% since April's low [1][3] Market Sentiment - The copper price is in a phase of tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. On the bullish side, a weaker dollar and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts make copper more attractive for buyers holding other currencies, potentially supporting demand. Additionally, a decline in China's refined copper production, influenced by scrap supply issues, tax policies, and factory maintenance, provides further price support. China's resilient demand, driven by strong service sector activity and increasing manufacturing orders, also underpins copper prices [3][4] - On the bearish side, weak overseas demand is a critical concern, with the US manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory, indicating sluggish manufacturing activity and poor overseas demand for copper. Furthermore, significant increases in copper inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) suggest that the spot market demand has not fully absorbed supply, leading to ongoing inventory pressure. Global economic uncertainties, such as concerns over US tariff policies, also dampen market sentiment [3][4] Institutional and Market Analysis - In the short term, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong but volatile trend due to tight supply conditions and weak US economic data, which may reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, indirectly boosting copper prices. In the medium to long term, the demand outlook for copper remains positive, particularly in emerging industries such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, where copper applications are growing. However, insufficient global copper mining investment may limit long-term supply, supporting a bullish price trend [4][5] - If overseas inventories remain high and global demand does not improve, especially with continued weakness in the US and European markets, the potential for significant copper price increases may be limited. Market participants are closely monitoring key economic data, such as US non-farm payrolls, for insights into policy direction [4][5] Overall Market Condition - The London copper market is currently experiencing a phase of short-term strength but notable volatility, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors leading to cautious sentiment among market participants. The overall upward trend in copper prices this year is evident, but recent high-level fluctuations reflect the interplay of various market sentiments. Tight supply and resilient Chinese demand support prices, while weak overseas demand and high inventories pose constraints. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain strong but with limited upward momentum, while medium-term structural support exists, albeit with caution regarding global economic uncertainties and inventory pressures [5]

Core Insights - The report focuses on cross-asset timing strategies for interest rates, systematically backtesting various assets (including stock indices, commodities, and bonds) to identify performance under different market conditions [1]. Group 1: Cross-Asset Rotation Effects - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect arises from shifts in risk appetite, where strong economic expectations lead to capital flowing into equity markets, putting pressure on bond prices and raising yields [2][14]. - The relationship between commodities and bonds is closely tied to inflation expectations, with rising commodity prices typically leading to higher inflation and interest rates, which suppress bond valuations [2][14]. Group 2: Timing Strategies in Commodity and Equity Markets - In equity markets, strategies focused on volatility structures yield higher excess returns compared to trend-based moving average strategies, particularly in high-volatility environments [3]. - For commodities, timing strategies exhibit high odds and low win rates, aligning with the trend-driven nature of commodity trading. Multi-signal strategies outperform in various market conditions due to their adaptability [3][51]. Group 3: Cross-Asset Timing Strategies - The report employs a "cross-validation signal triggering method" for each asset, enhancing the robustness of cross-asset timing strategies. The "look at stocks, trade bonds" and "look at commodities, trade bonds" approaches aim to mitigate drawdowns while maintaining excess returns [4][86]. Group 4: Future Optimization Outlook - A dynamic weighting mechanism is proposed to adjust the importance of different market signals based on macroeconomic conditions, enhancing the adaptability of strategies over time [5]. - The report suggests exploring pair trading strategies in the foreign exchange market to provide additional support for cross-asset trading logic [5].

金十数据7月14日讯，欧洲午盘交易时段，伦敦铜价下跌，因贸易紧张局势升温打压整个大宗商品市场 情绪。伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜期货下跌0.6%，报每吨9,602美元。特朗普总统对欧盟和墨 西哥商品征收30%关税，引发了人们对经济放缓的担忧，而经济放缓可能会削弱工业金属的需求。此 外，特朗普宣布美国将从8月1日起对进口红铜征收50%的关税（尽管具体细节尚未公布），这使得铜价 还面临针对其行业的关税压力。巴克莱分析师表示，由于美国买家成本上升，可能会出现短暂的需求缺 口，进而给铜价带来压力。不过，该行预计这对伦敦金属交易所铜价的影响将是短暂的。 伦敦铜价午盘下跌 巴克莱：关税影响或短暂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that in the second half of the year, credit bond yields may follow government bond yields downward, but the supply of credit bonds may increase while demand weakens, leading to a risk of widening credit spreads [3][6][7]. Market Overview Domestic Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3461, with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 1.91% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10535, with a daily increase of 1.17% and a weekly increase of 3.73% [1]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3968, with a daily increase of 0.62% and a weekly increase of 1.95% [1]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 2164, with a daily increase of 1.90% and a weekly increase of 5.69% [1]. International Market - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24070, with a daily decrease of 0.63% and a weekly increase of 3.20% [4]. - The Dow Jones Index closed at 44484, with a daily decrease of 0.02% and a weekly increase of 3.82% [4]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6227, with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 3.44% [4]. Credit Bond Strategy - The report emphasizes that the overall strategy for credit bonds in the second half of the year should focus on extending duration, as it may still be a better strategy. Additionally, opportunities in lower-rated bonds should be monitored [6][7]. - Among the three major sectors, it is recommended to pay more attention to municipal investment bonds, as their supply is expected to weaken, followed by financial bonds [6][7]. Sector Strategies 1. **Municipal Investment Bonds**: Focus on opportunities for spread compression in high-quality municipal bonds from good regions, as policies may alleviate credit risks [7]. 2. **Industrial Bonds**: Monitor opportunities for spread recovery in state-owned enterprise bonds after risk events have eased, as well as coupon opportunities from state-owned real estate and construction bonds [7]. 3. **Financial Bonds**: Pay attention to overall opportunities arising from reduced supply pressure on perpetual bonds and structural opportunities from the merger of rural commercial banks [7]. 4. **Technology Innovation Bonds**: Opportunities for spread compression are worth noting, as their rates are slightly higher than green bonds [7].