Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares have risen over 200% year-to-date, with a recent increase of 6.75% to HKD 35.44, reflecting strong market performance amid supply concerns in the copper industry [1] Company Summary - Jiangxi Copper is a leading copper smelting company in China, with an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, and copper-related revenue accounting for over 70% of its total income [1] Industry Summary - The suspension of operations at the Grasberg copper mine is expected to exacerbate the copper supply shortage between Q4 2025 and 2026 [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's copper division opposes "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, indicating a push for more sustainable practices [1] - Everbright Securities predicts that implementing "anti-involution" policies in the copper sector may limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations, potentially improving profitability for smelting companies as downstream consumption continues to grow due to renewable energy and grid upgrades [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Overseas copper mine production disruptions lead to a tight supply expectation, but the Fed's hawkish stance on future interest rate cuts may keep copper prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On September 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 82,710, with a trading volume of 334,893 lots, a position of 238,523 lots, and an inventory of 27,662 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 82,505, with a change of -290 compared to the previous day [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 25, 2025, was 10,275.5, and the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was -31.55 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on September 25, 2025, was 4.7885, and the total inventory was 321,056 [2] Important Information - At the Antaike Copper Industry Week conference held in Xiongan, Beijing on September 25, 2025, Chen Quanxun, the former president of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, put forward five suggestions for the copper industry, emphasizing that the anti - involution of the copper industry should refer to the experience of the aluminum industry and control smelting capacity [2] Long - Short Logic - Supply side: The large - scale wet ore spill at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates. Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. Tight scrap copper supply - demand expectations lead to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October increases month - on - month [2] - Demand side: High copper prices lead downstream to mainly make rigid purchases [2] - Inventory side: China's electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to last week, LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2] Trading Strategy - Hold yesterday's long positions cautiously, or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 78,000 - 81,000 and the resistance level around 83,000 - 86,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,500 - 10,800 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]