Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, the price continues to oscillate within a narrow range, and the low - volatility state persists. There is no need to overly worry about the inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities during price corrections, and there will be opportunities to re - enter long positions for volatility. [3][5] - For alumina, although the price rose significantly due to news from Shanxi mines during the week, the actual impact is limited, and the price may reach a certain equilibrium at the 3000 - 3200 platform level. The supply side still has multiple uncertainties, and the inventory is continuously accumulating. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - **Term Spread**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 55 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Shandong alumina for the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 71 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. [11] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum remained stable. [12] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The position and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, with the position reaching a historical high. [14] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [19] 2. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of August 15, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 800,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of July, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China continued to accumulate according to the阿拉丁口径. In July, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants continued to decline. As of August 15, the weekly shipping volume from Guinea ports and the floating inventory both decreased. As of August 8, the shipping volume from Australian and Guinean ports and the arrival volume of bauxite all decreased. [24][29][30] - **Alumina**: The total alumina inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 55,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants increased slightly, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way decreased. As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 3.375 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants decreased by 37,000 tons, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by 33,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 46,000 tons, and the inventory at yards/stations/on - the - way increased by 48,000 tons. [44][50] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate. As of August 14, the weekly inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons. [51] - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume declined. As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57][59] 3. Production - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply remained stable. As of July, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly according to the SMM caliber. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite production in Shanxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased slightly according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Henan increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Guangxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber and increased according to the SMM caliber. [64][69] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 15, the total operating capacity of alumina in China was 95.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - abundant pattern of alumina fundamentals has not changed, and the alumina price may continue to be under pressure. [73] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit restoration. As of August 14, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 847,900 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week, maintaining a high level in the past six years. As the terminal consumption enters the off - season, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to increase, which may bring supply pressure. [77] - **Downstream Processing**: The production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly this week. The production of recycled aluminum rods decreased, and the production of aluminum rods increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly, with the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increasing. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged. [80][84][91] 4. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit of alumina remained at a good level. This week, the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly, with the profit at 415.5 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [93] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors, interfering with market expectations. [102] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained unchanged week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [103] 5. Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum widened. [111] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 52,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a divergence, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, awaiting market games, which may drag down the demand side. [113][115] - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month. [121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation for aluminum suggests a downward direction, with the impact of US tariffs on export demand and the actual decline in photovoltaic production being crucial factors affecting aluminum prices and electrolytic aluminum enterprise profits [3]. - For alumina, the time difference between the spot side and the actual market release of new production capacity supports the spot side, but the overall supply - demand pattern is not expected to reverse significantly [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price Movement**: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum once led the decline in the non - ferrous sector, reaching a low of 19,300, but then recovered some ground. The future direction depends on factors such as overseas market gaps, export demand, and photovoltaic production data [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of May 8, the social inventory of aluminum ingots was 629,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to before the May Day holiday. The weekly production of downstream aluminum plate, strip, and foil decreased, as did the output of aluminum profiles, while sample production scheduling increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 110 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit returned to a median level in the same period of previous years [3]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: After a significant decline in the price center before the holiday, the AO futures price rebounded due to stable spot quotes and a production capacity event of a large enterprise. The spot market in the north is still tight after the holiday [4]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of May 8, the all - caliber social inventory of alumina decreased. The domestic spot price of alumina increased slightly, and the FOB forward - spot price in Australia also rose slightly, with the internal - external price difference remaining at a loss of 200 - 300 yuan/ton [4]. Trading - end - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai aluminum remained stable, while the term B structure of alumina narrowed [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The near - month spread of Shanghai aluminum narrowed [10]. - **Position and Volume**: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, and the trading volume declined significantly. The position of the alumina main contract increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [12]. - **Position - Inventory Ratio**: The position - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai alumina decreased. The ratio of Shanghai aluminum was slightly higher than the same period last year, while that of alumina was at a historically low level [17]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of May 9, the port inventory and inventory days of imported bauxite increased. The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory also increased significantly. The outbound volume increased significantly, and the inbound volume increased slightly [21][29][34]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina decreased. The inventory in the plant, at electrolytic aluminum plants, at ports, and in transit all decreased [46][53]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline rapidly. As of May 8, the weekly inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 629,000 tons, with a faster decline than in previous years [54]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods remained stable, while the outbound volume decreased [60]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of March, the raw material and finished - product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip - foil decreased significantly [63]. Production - **Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite recovered, but the increase was limited. The production in some provinces such as Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends [68][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate continued to decline. As of May 9, the national operating capacity decreased by 2.6 million tons week - on - week. The production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.586 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week, and the supply remained loose [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May 8, the weekly production was 841,300 tons, a slight increase of 200 tons from the previous week [79]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of aluminum profiles and plate - strip - foil decreased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum rods continued to decline, while the production of aluminum rods increased slightly. The production of plate - strip - foil decreased by 3,700 tons [82]. - **Downstream Processing - Enterprise开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly to 61.94%. The operating rates of aluminum plate - strip and foil decreased slightly, with potential downward risks in the future [83]. Profit - **Alumina**: The profit of alumina recovered. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina according to the Steel Union's caliber was 82.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan increased, and the profit in Guangxi was better [95]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum recovered comprehensively. However, complex global macro - economic conditions and trade policies increased uncertainties [102]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased significantly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [103]. Consumption - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [112]. - **Export**: In April 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons [114]. - **Consumption Absolute Quantity**: The apparent demand for aluminum rods increased significantly, and the monthly automobile production increased significantly [120].