1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attack on Middle Eastern aluminum plants has exposed the vulnerability of the global aluminum supply chain, leading to short - term price increases due to sentiment and expectations. However, the long - term price trend is determined by supply - demand fundamentals. The supply has reached the capacity ceiling, demand growth is moderate, and high inventory will suppress price increases. Short - term prices may be strong, but will face downward pressure in the long run [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Aluminum Supply Pattern - Global electrolytic aluminum supply is rigid with limited growth elasticity. In 2025, global production was about 74 million tons, a 1.65% year - on - year increase. The Middle East accounted for about 9% of global capacity. Overseas supply is in a fragile state with "easy reduction of existing capacity and difficulty in increasing new capacity". China's electrolytic aluminum industry has reached the 45 - million - ton capacity ceiling, with a 2025 operating capacity of 44.6075 million tons and a utilization rate of 96.5%. Global supply is in a tight balance, and regional supply disruptions will have a magnified impact [2]. Impact of Middle Eastern Events on the Global Aluminum Supply Chain - **Conduction Paths**: The attack impacts the global aluminum supply chain through three paths. Firstly, over 30% of Middle Eastern electrolytic aluminum capacity has stopped, affecting over 6% of global supply. Secondly, the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has caused dual obstacles in raw material and finished - product logistics, deepening the supply impact from logistics to production. Thirdly, the复产 cycle is long, and the supply gap may be long - term due to the high - continuity and high - energy - consumption nature of electrolytic aluminum production [5]. - **Impact on Trade Flow**: The attack will restructure the global aluminum trade flow. It has intensified the expectation of spot supply shortage, leading to an increase in overseas spot premiums. European aluminum spot premiums have reached a record high, and the overseas aluminum premium has spread to Asia. It is expected that aluminum premiums will continue to rise [6][7]. Global Aluminum Demand Analysis - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is rigid in various industries, and its consumption structure is being reshaped. The proportion of aluminum used in construction has declined to about 15.8%, while that in transportation and power electronics has increased to 26.9% and 22.9% respectively. New - energy vehicles and AI data centers have created new demand growth. In the context of the Middle Eastern conflict, global primary aluminum supply growth is limited, while terminal demand remains resilient. It is estimated that there will be a supply gap of about 250,000 tons in the Chinese market in 2026 and about 820,000 tons in the overseas market, with a global supply gap of about 1.07 million tons [10]. - The consumption side has advanced its inventory - building behavior. The number of LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts has increased significantly, indicating a strong overseas consumption - side demand for提货 [11]. Outlook for the Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Market - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity has reached the 45 - million - ton policy ceiling. In 2026, the operating capacity is expected to be about 44.59 million tons, with a utilization rate close to 100%. The annual effective new capacity is only about 590,000 tons, and the growth rate has slowed significantly [15]. - **Demand**: There is a structural transformation in demand. The proportion of aluminum used in construction is decreasing, while that in transportation (especially new - energy vehicles) and power electronics is increasing rapidly [15]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of March, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum reached 1.3258 million tons, much higher than the average level in previous years. This is due to the slow resumption of downstream production after the Spring Festival and the high operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum [18]. - **Cost and Profit**: The high - profit state of the industry is unsustainable. High inventory and low acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises will lead to price declines and erode profit margins [18]. - **Price Trend**: Short - term aluminum prices may be strong due to geopolitical conflicts, but lack fundamental support. In the long run, prices will face downward pressure. Investors should be rational and not over - pursue high prices [20][21].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The aluminum price has an independent trend due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation and potential threats to the overseas aluminum supply chain. The price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, with total positions increasing by 26,000 to 688,000. High prices suppress consumption, and the procurement demand is weak. The domestic supply is stable, and the demand is warming up after the festival, but inventory accumulation continues. The current aluminum price is mainly affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and a low - buying strategy is recommended before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Price and Position**: The aluminum price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, and the total positions increased by 26,000 to 688,000 [8] - **Consumption**: High aluminum prices suppress consumption, with weak procurement demand. The East China discount is - 130, the Central Plains discount is - 270, and the South China discount is - 205 [8] - **Import and Export**: The Shanghai - London ratio is low, and the import loss is - 3,368 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: Domestic supply is stable. Newly - invested capacities in Indonesia and Angola are still ramping up. In the Middle East, Qatar Aluminum has stopped production, and Bahrain Aluminum has suspended supply [8] - **Demand and Inventory**: After the festival, demand is warming up, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly. However, inventory accumulation continues. Domestic social inventory has increased to 1.271 million tons, at a high level in the past three years, while the London inventory has decreased by more than 2,000 tons to 452,000 tons, highlighting the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a low - buying strategy before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 5: Industry News - **Force Reduction by Rio Tinto**: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [9] - **Expansion by Nalco**: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].