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建信期货铝日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:01
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].
建信期货铝日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 02:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The AD Index adjusted during the day, and the commodity index performed weakly. The main contract of SHFE aluminum continued to decline, with the 2511 contract closing down 0.41% at 2877. The spread between the October and November contracts turned to par, and the far - month contracts still maintained a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss narrowed by 200 to about - 1530 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [7]. - Alumina adjusted with the sector, and the callback amplitude deepened. At this price, some manufacturers are again on the verge of profit and loss, and cost support is gradually emerging. The short - selling risk is relatively high, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow SHFE aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. The peak season of "Golden September" has arrived, but the inflection point of inventory has not appeared. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, it is expected that the inventory pressure will be relieved. SHFE aluminum has returned to the previous oscillation range, and pay attention to the support at the 20,500 level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **SHFE Aluminum**: The main 2511 contract of SHFE aluminum closed down 0.41% at 20,685. The 10 - 11 spread turned to par, and the import window remained closed with the spot import loss narrowing [7]. - **Bauxite**: Northern domestic bauxite production has not resumed, with low probability of resuming this year. There are both upward and downward pressures on bauxite prices. Imported bauxite is oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to Guinea's mining rights policy [7]. - **Alumina**: It adjusted with the sector, with a deeper callback. Cost support is emerging at the price of 2877, and short - selling risk is high. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Its trend follows SHFE aluminum. Pay attention to the long AD short AL strategy due to the peak season and policy changes [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Operating capacity is high. Although the peak season has arrived, the inventory inflection point is delayed. It is expected that inventory pressure will ease. Pay attention to the 20,500 support level [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **EGA's IPO**: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest listings in the Middle East. Its valuation is estimated to be between $10 billion and $15 billion. It has entrusted several banks for the IPO and hired Rothschild as a consultant. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle East aluminum assets and further consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [8][10]. - **Japanese Aluminum Can Demand**: In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different regional registrations [9].
铝日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:59
行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 23 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 铝观点: 美联储降息靴子落地,但周一中国 5 年期 LPR 维持不变,国新办新闻发布会 亦未涉及短期政策调整,A 股走弱,日内沪铝冲高回落延续调整态势,主力 2511 收跌 0.36%报 20745,10-11 转为升水 5,远月尚呈现小幅 contango 结构,进口窗 口保持关闭,现货进口亏损扩大至-1780 元/吨。北方国产铝土矿仍未恢复生产, 年内复产概率低,北方矿价有上涨动力,但下游氧化铝现货价格走跌,压价意愿 增强,矿价上涨 ...
铝类市场周报:供给稳定消费提升,铝类或将有所支撑-20250919
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].
建信期货铝日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:32
日期 2025 年 9 月 5 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 行业 铝日报 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铝观点: 4 日沪铝继续下跌,主力报收 20605,环比上日下跌 0.77%%,09-10 贴水转为 升水 15,远月尚呈现 contango 结构,进口窗口保持关闭,现货进口亏损-1320 元/吨。期价下跌带动市场活跃度重新回归,下游刚需采买量增长,日内现货升贴 水均有所回暖。铸铝合金跟随沪铝节奏波动,AD-AL 负价差报-385,传统旺季将 至叠加废铝行业的税收返还终止政策导致行业成本抬升,多重因素共振下铸铝合 金走势有望转强,多 A ...
建信期货铝日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price shows a relatively strong trend. Although it has not emerged from the off - season, the market sentiment is positive due to the impending Fed rate cut. The subsequent performance of the consumer side during the peak season should be monitored to see if it can break through the upper space [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen under the resonance of multiple factors, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be held [7]. - Alumina is in a weak fundamental situation, breaking through the 3000 mark and running weakly in the short - term, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the military parade may delay the peak - season time, and the inventory is still accumulating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum price first rose and then fell. The main contract tested around 20,900 and then declined again, closing at 20,710 at the end of the session, with a slight drop of 0.02%. The 09 - 10 spread was at a discount of - 10, the import window remained closed, and the spot import loss was - 1,354 yuan/ton [7]. - In the spot market, the selling sentiment was better than the buying sentiment, the purchasing power of downstream enterprises was weak, and the inventory accumulation suppressed the premium [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated following the Shanghai aluminum price. The negative spread between AD and AL was - 415. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap - aluminum industry leading to increased costs, the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the transfer and registration authority of some mineral species, aiming to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8]. - On August 4, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou District Dayuantao bauxite mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland. Key infrastructure construction has begun, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].
铝日报-20250815
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:11
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of the US dollar easing expectation trading and the weak financial data in July in China, the economic outlook remains sluggish, and Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure and weakens. Maintain the high - short strategy for Shanghai Aluminum due to the off - season and inventory pressure [7]. - Alumina has a surplus in fundamentals, so maintain the idea of selling on rebounds, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by sentiment changes. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both weak, and it continues to operate in a range, with the AD - AL negative spread remaining at a low level for the time being [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2509 closed at 20,715, down 0.38%, and the 08 - 09 backwardation turned to parity. Cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 510. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream automotive industry is in the off - season, maintaining a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [7]. - After the news stimulus decreases, alumina has a high - level correction. With the unchanged surplus fundamentals, maintain the idea of selling on rebounds. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources decided to adjust the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic clay, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alum [8]. - On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The mining rights of a 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area previously held by GAC have been granted to NMC for 25 years [10]. - The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s bauxite mine in Shanzhou District have been changed, with a valid period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, and a designed production scale of 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland, Australia. The construction is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].
建信期货铝日报-20250813
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:31
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market opened lower and closed higher. The main contract 2509 closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium remained unchanged from the previous day. The spot market strengthened, supported by the change in the monthly spread structure. The spot premium slightly recovered. The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply - demand pattern of scrap aluminum remained weak, and the cast - aluminum alloy continued to operate within a range [7]. - Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the fundamentals remained unchanged with a relatively oversupplied situation. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remained high, the off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7]. Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Market**: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium was 20. The spot market strengthened, with the spot premium in East China at - 30, in Central China at - 130, and in South China at - 55. The cast - aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate strongly, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the supply - demand pattern of the cast - aluminum alloy remained weak [7]. - **Alumina Market**: Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the supply was relatively oversupplied. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Market**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high. The off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7] Industry News - **Policy Adjustment**: On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic soil, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alumina, to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8][10]. - **Overseas Bauxite Mine Rights Change**: On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The previous 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area of GAC was granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - **Mining Rights Change**: The mining rights of the Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd. were changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, with a designed production scale of 500,000 tons/year [10]. - **Investment Project**: Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek Bauxite Project in Queensland. The project is crucial for the long - term business of Weipa, and the Norman Creek area holds nearly half of the proven reserves (978 million tons) of the Amrun Mine. The construction is planned to be completed in 2028 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]
铝日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:04
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Aluminum Market - On the 5th, Shanghai Aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.51% at 20,560. The total index positions increased by 934 to 574,153 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 40. Aluminum ingot social inventories continued to grow, and spot prices were all at discounts. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai Aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread reported at - 485 [8]. - In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines, the shortage is expected to be limited, and the bauxite price will mainly operate at the bottom [8]. - The stimulus of the anti - involution policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution, and short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum will continue to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL will maintain a low - level negative spread structure [8]. - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories are seasonally increasing. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be strong, but the off - season continues, and short - selling can be appropriately considered [8]. Group 3: Industry News Ghana's Bauxite Agreement - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite mines in West Africa. Potential partners include the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) or a Chinese company. The canceled agreement covered the Nyinahin Hills mine in central Ghana, which contains about 376 million tons of bauxite. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh in the world [9][10]. China's Aluminum Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]. Guinea's Mining License Revocation - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced that the Ministry of Mines and Geology had revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge as part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The plant's production decreased in 2021 due to high electricity prices. The restart plan was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of production until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had resumed. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026 [10][11]
建信期货铝日报-20250805
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 01:42
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report. Core View - On the 4th, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. The main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to close at 20,525. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium was reported at 50. The cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to oscillate stronger, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -515. In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines suggest limited shortages, with ore prices mainly at the bottom. The stimulus from the anti - involution policy in the surplus industry for related industrial products has temporarily ended, and the alumina surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina and can short - sell at high points. In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry, with weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, cast aluminum continues to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure. At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains high, the demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories show a seasonal increase. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, macro - sentiment dominates the aluminum market. The fall of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be stronger, but the off - season continues, and one can appropriately short at high points [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum's main contract 2509 slightly rose 0.24% to 20,525, with the index's total open interest decreasing by 4,596 to 573,219 lots, and the 08 - 09 premium at 50. The AD - AL negative spread was -515 [8] - Bauxite supply may tighten in August due to the rainy season in Guinea, but high port inventories and mine restarts limit shortages, with ore prices at the bottom [8] - Alumina's surplus pattern remains unchanged. Before policy clarity, be cautious about the upside space and consider short - selling at high points [8] - Cast aluminum is in the automotive off - season, with weak supply and demand, following Shanghai aluminum in range - bound fluctuations and maintaining a low negative spread [8] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is sluggish in the off - season, inventories are seasonally increasing, and smelting profits have declined but are still high. Macro - sentiment dominates, and one can short at high points [8] 2. Industry News - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company. Potential partners include EGA or a Chinese company. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh globally [9] - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative import was about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. In June, exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase. In June, the net import was 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative net import was about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10] - On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mining rights with no actual mining activities [10] - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a national power outage in April. The smelter has a capacity of 228,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum [10][11]