瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 铝类市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝价低位运行，铝厂冶炼利润较好，整体开工情况积极。供给端，随着新疆及内蒙 古部分电解铝投产，整体开工率稳中有增，但因在产产能已临近行业上限，电解铝供给增量较为零星、量级稳定。需 求端，随着淡季影响的逐步显现，下游开工情况有所走弱，加之铝价保持高位震荡，对下游的采买亦有一定抑制，故 产业库存小幅积累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳中小增，需求淡季的阶段，受宏观预期利好铝价维持高位震 荡。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.99%，报22405元/吨。氧化铝震荡走强，周涨跌+11.72%，报2793元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚进口矿季节性影响减弱，发运回稳港口 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - On November 3, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went higher, with the main 2512 contract closing at 21,600 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase, hitting a new high for the year. The spot market showed that although traders in East China increased shipments, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices. The import window was closed, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the spot import loss expanding to about -2,600 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the follow - up under the support of a positive macro - environment [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Performance - On November 3, the main 2512 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,600 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [9]. - In the spot market, East China reported at par, Central China at a discount of -140, and South China at a discount of -150. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss expanded to about -2,600 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Analysis - Domestic bauxite remained tight. Mines in the north affected by environmental protection and the rainy season could resume production, but the specific time awaited government approval. The price increase of northern bauxite was expected to be limited due to high inventory and weak restocking willingness of alumina plants, while southern bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite was sluggish, and the price of Guinean bauxite was under pressure. Policy disturbances in November should be noted [9]. - Alumina remained in surplus, and the import window was open, with pressure from overseas inflows. In the north, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection requirements after heating in November and annual carbon emission verifications. The low - price situation and long - term delivery obligations put great pressure on enterprises, and the spot long - term settlement price in November was close to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, which might lead to production cuts [9]. - Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, providing strong cost support. After November, the traditional peak season basically ended, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level following Shanghai aluminum [9]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic operating capacity remained high with limited changes. The production cuts of Century Aluminum this month and the expected production cuts of Mozambique Aluminum next year might intensify the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. With positive macro - factors such as successful Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the aluminum market was expected to be strong in the follow - up [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On October 30, the second - phase alumina project of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project of State Power Investment Corporation officially started. It is planned to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and supporting facilities, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Mercuria, a global commodity trading giant, is transporting over 30,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA, presumably to meet the needs of its US customers. Mercuria's long - term holding of over 90% of LME aluminum warehouse receipts is considered the key factor for the premium of LME near - month aluminum contracts over far - month contracts [10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported cans) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested implementing different strategies for the "anti - involution" of the non - ferrous metal smelting industry, including setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals, enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals, and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalization and high added - value [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Aluminum contract showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract reached a high of 21,200, then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices due to the short - term suppression of downstream consumption by high prices [9] - The supply of northern bauxite is tight with relatively strong prices, while other regions remain stable. The resumption of some mines in Guinea puts pressure on imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling, hovering around 2,850. The fundamentals are significantly oversupplied. Attention should be paid to the possible production cuts and maintenance of high - cost enterprises due to price drops [9] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to oscillate strongly during the traditional peak season. In October, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged at a high level, and the Indonesian aluminum plant has been successfully put into operation, slightly increasing the overall supply. Demand is in the peak season. Although the actual performance of the terminal is poor, with the loose overseas liquidity and the increasing expectation of domestic stimulus policies, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract reached a high of 21,200 and then dropped to 20,980 at the end of the session, a 0.12% decline from the previous day. The 10 - 11 spread turned to flat, and the import window closed. The spot import loss widened to around - 2,400 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: Northern bauxite supply is tight, and the resumption of some mines in Guinea affects imported bauxite prices. Alumina prices are falling due to oversupply. Cast aluminum alloy is in the peak season and is expected to oscillate strongly. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the Indonesian plant's operation increases supply. Demand is in the peak season, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly, but be cautious about chasing high prices [9] Group 5: Industry News - A cooperation agreement on the management, operation, and maintenance of the mining road on the Darbilon Line was signed on October 3, 2025. Six mining companies in the Boké administrative region participated. The agreement allows the sharing of dedicated roads for mineral transportation, reducing production costs and environmental and social risks, and is expected to increase bauxite mining by over 50 million tons [10][11] - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO is expected to be one of the largest in the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. EGA has overcome challenges such as US tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [11] - The Japan Aluminum Can Recycling Association reported that the demand for aluminum cans in Japan in 2025 was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The AD Index adjusted during the day, and the commodity index performed weakly. The main contract of SHFE aluminum continued to decline, with the 2511 contract closing down 0.41% at 2877. The spread between the October and November contracts turned to par, and the far - month contracts still maintained a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss narrowed by 200 to about - 1530 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [7]. - Alumina adjusted with the sector, and the callback amplitude deepened. At this price, some manufacturers are again on the verge of profit and loss, and cost support is gradually emerging. The short - selling risk is relatively high, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow SHFE aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. The peak season of "Golden September" has arrived, but the inflection point of inventory has not appeared. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, it is expected that the inventory pressure will be relieved. SHFE aluminum has returned to the previous oscillation range, and pay attention to the support at the 20,500 level in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **SHFE Aluminum**: The main 2511 contract of SHFE aluminum closed down 0.41% at 20,685. The 10 - 11 spread turned to par, and the import window remained closed with the spot import loss narrowing [7]. - **Bauxite**: Northern domestic bauxite production has not resumed, with low probability of resuming this year. There are both upward and downward pressures on bauxite prices. Imported bauxite is oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to Guinea's mining rights policy [7]. - **Alumina**: It adjusted with the sector, with a deeper callback. Cost support is emerging at the price of 2877, and short - selling risk is high. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Its trend follows SHFE aluminum. Pay attention to the long AD short AL strategy due to the peak season and policy changes [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Operating capacity is high. Although the peak season has arrived, the inventory inflection point is delayed. It is expected that inventory pressure will ease. Pay attention to the 20,500 support level [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **EGA's IPO**: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, which is expected to be one of the largest listings in the Middle East. Its valuation is estimated to be between $10 billion and $15 billion. It has entrusted several banks for the IPO and hired Rothschild as a consultant. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for the listing location. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle East aluminum assets and further consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [8][10]. - **Japanese Aluminum Can Demand**: In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different regional registrations [9].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut decision has been made, but China's 5 - year LPR remained unchanged on Monday. The A - share market weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, continuing the adjustment trend. The main contract 2511 closed down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina remain weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is gradually emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September", the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the absolute price falls and aluminum processing enterprises have pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward - then - downward trend, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - Bauxite Situation: The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - Alumina Suggestion: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Strategy: The trend of cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Outlook: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although it has entered the peak season, the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the price falls and there is pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Policy Issuance: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and guide the orderly layout of related industries [8][10]. - Project Delay: India's Federal Ministry of Environment has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project has an estimated reserve of 311 million tons. The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) pointed out that the report submitted by the Odisha government did not address issues such as community consent, compensatory afforestation, and ecological risks. The project will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - Mining Right Change: The mining right of the Dataoyuan bauxite mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Aluminum Daily Report - **Date**: September 5, 2025 - **Research Team**: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [1][2][3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - On September 4, Shanghai aluminum prices continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 20,605, a 0.77% drop from the previous day. The 09 - 10 spread changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts still showed a contango structure. The import window remained closed, with a spot import loss of - 1,320 yuan/ton [7]. - The decline in futures prices boosted market activity, with an increase in downstream rigid - demand purchases. The spot premium and discount both improved. The cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread at - 385. With the approaching traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, which increased industry costs, the cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be maintained [7]. - The weak fundamentals of alumina pushed its price below the 3,000 mark, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downside space is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although the peak season is approaching, the consumption side has only marginally improved, and inventories have not been effectively depleted and are still accumulating. Overall, the weakening macro - environment and the fact that the aluminum fundamentals have not emerged from the off - season have put pressure on aluminum prices to decline again. Future attention should be paid to the performance of the consumption side during the peak season to see if it can break through the upper space, and the previous high resistance remains strong [7]. 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices declined, and the market activity recovered. The cast aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen, and the alumina price is weak. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the future trend depends on the peak - season consumption [7]. 4.2 Industry News - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in the photovoltaic and other fields, guide the orderly layout of industries, and strengthen product quality management [8]. - The Indian federal environment ministry has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project, with an expected reserve of 311 million tons, faces issues such as community consent, ecological risks, and land - use problems. It will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou Dataoyuan bauxite mine has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price shows a relatively strong trend. Although it has not emerged from the off - season, the market sentiment is positive due to the impending Fed rate cut. The subsequent performance of the consumer side during the peak season should be monitored to see if it can break through the upper space [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen under the resonance of multiple factors, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be held [7]. - Alumina is in a weak fundamental situation, breaking through the 3000 mark and running weakly in the short - term, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the military parade may delay the peak - season time, and the inventory is still accumulating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum price first rose and then fell. The main contract tested around 20,900 and then declined again, closing at 20,710 at the end of the session, with a slight drop of 0.02%. The 09 - 10 spread was at a discount of - 10, the import window remained closed, and the spot import loss was - 1,354 yuan/ton [7]. - In the spot market, the selling sentiment was better than the buying sentiment, the purchasing power of downstream enterprises was weak, and the inventory accumulation suppressed the premium [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated following the Shanghai aluminum price. The negative spread between AD and AL was - 415. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap - aluminum industry leading to increased costs, the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the transfer and registration authority of some mineral species, aiming to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8]. - On August 4, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou District Dayuantao bauxite mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland. Key infrastructure construction has begun, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of the US dollar easing expectation trading and the weak financial data in July in China, the economic outlook remains sluggish, and Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure and weakens. Maintain the high - short strategy for Shanghai Aluminum due to the off - season and inventory pressure [7]. - Alumina has a surplus in fundamentals, so maintain the idea of selling on rebounds, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by sentiment changes. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both weak, and it continues to operate in a range, with the AD - AL negative spread remaining at a low level for the time being [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2509 closed at 20,715, down 0.38%, and the 08 - 09 backwardation turned to parity. Cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 510. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream automotive industry is in the off - season, maintaining a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [7]. - After the news stimulus decreases, alumina has a high - level correction. With the unchanged surplus fundamentals, maintain the idea of selling on rebounds. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources decided to adjust the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic clay, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alum [8]. - On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The mining rights of a 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area previously held by GAC have been granted to NMC for 25 years [10]. - The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s bauxite mine in Shanzhou District have been changed, with a valid period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, and a designed production scale of 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland, Australia. The construction is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].