Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to the cooling of the US dollar easing expectation trading and the weak financial data in July in China, the economic outlook remains sluggish, and Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure and weakens. Maintain the high - short strategy for Shanghai Aluminum due to the off - season and inventory pressure [7]. - Alumina has a surplus in fundamentals, so maintain the idea of selling on rebounds, and be vigilant against the risk of sharp price fluctuations caused by sentiment changes. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The smelting enterprises have rich profits [7]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are both weak, and it continues to operate in a range, with the AD - AL negative spread remaining at a low level for the time being [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract 2509 closed at 20,715, down 0.38%, and the 08 - 09 backwardation turned to parity. Cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at - 510. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream automotive industry is in the off - season, maintaining a supply - demand dual - weak pattern [7]. - After the news stimulus decreases, alumina has a high - level correction. With the unchanged surplus fundamentals, maintain the idea of selling on rebounds. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the processing enterprises are in the off - season, and the inventory continues to increase seasonally [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources decided to adjust the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic clay, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alum [8]. - On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The mining rights of a 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area previously held by GAC have been granted to NMC for 25 years [10]. - The mining rights of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s bauxite mine in Shanzhou District have been changed, with a valid period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, and a designed production scale of 500,000 tons per year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland, Australia. The construction is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, the primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai aluminum market opened lower and closed higher. The main contract 2509 closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium remained unchanged from the previous day. The spot market strengthened, supported by the change in the monthly spread structure. The spot premium slightly recovered. The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply - demand pattern of scrap aluminum remained weak, and the cast - aluminum alloy continued to operate within a range [7]. - Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the fundamentals remained unchanged with a relatively oversupplied situation. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high. For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remained high, the off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7]. Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Aluminum Market**: The main contract 2509 of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,735, up 0.29%. The 08 - 09 premium was 20. The spot market strengthened, with the spot premium in East China at - 30, in Central China at - 130, and in South China at - 55. The cast - aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum to fluctuate strongly, and the AD - AL negative spread was - 520. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the supply - demand pattern of the cast - aluminum alloy remained weak [7]. - **Alumina Market**: Alumina rose more than 4% due to news, but the supply was relatively oversupplied. It could be short - sold when it rebounded to near the previous high [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Market**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high. The off - season was in the second half, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally. The smelting enterprises had rich profits. The market was supported by the loose dollar and domestic policy expectations, but the off - season effect and high prices still inhibited terminal consumption. It was advisable to wait for high - level short - selling opportunities [7] Industry News - **Policy Adjustment**: On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some mineral types, including ceramic soil, refractory clay, kaolin, and iron alumina, to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8][10]. - **Overseas Bauxite Mine Rights Change**: On August 4, the Guinean government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over the mining rights of EGA - GAC. The previous 690.20 - square - kilometer mining area of GAC was granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - **Mining Rights Change**: The mining rights of the Dataoyuan Bauxite Mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd. were changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030, with a designed production scale of 500,000 tons/year [10]. - **Investment Project**: Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek Bauxite Project in Queensland. The project is crucial for the long - term business of Weipa, and the Norman Creek area holds nearly half of the proven reserves (978 million tons) of the Amrun Mine. The construction is planned to be completed in 2028 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Aluminum Market - On the 5th, Shanghai Aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.51% at 20,560. The total index positions increased by 934 to 574,153 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 40. Aluminum ingot social inventories continued to grow, and spot prices were all at discounts. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai Aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread reported at - 485 [8]. - In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines, the shortage is expected to be limited, and the bauxite price will mainly operate at the bottom [8]. - The stimulus of the anti - involution policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution, and short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum will continue to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL will maintain a low - level negative spread structure [8]. - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories are seasonally increasing. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be strong, but the off - season continues, and short - selling can be appropriately considered [8]. Group 3: Industry News Ghana's Bauxite Agreement - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite mines in West Africa. Potential partners include the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) or a Chinese company. The canceled agreement covered the Nyinahin Hills mine in central Ghana, which contains about 376 million tons of bauxite. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh in the world [9][10]. China's Aluminum Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]. Guinea's Mining License Revocation - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced that the Ministry of Mines and Geology had revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge as part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The plant's production decreased in 2021 due to high electricity prices. The restart plan was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of production until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had resumed. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026 [10][11]

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 5 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 4 日沪铝震荡略偏强运行，主力 2509 小幅收涨 0.24%报 20525，指数总持仓 减少 4596 至 573219 手，08-09 升水报 50；铸铝合金跟随沪铝震荡偏强，AD-AL 负价差报-515。进入 8 月铝土矿供应有趋紧态势，主因几内亚雨季影响逐步显现， 但港口库存高企加上部分停产矿企复产，预计短缺有限，矿价底部运行为主；过 剩行业反内 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the further cooling of the "anti-involution" logic, aluminum industry chain varieties continued to correct. Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina fluctuated greatly due to the anti-involution logic, dropping 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices; on the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina dropped 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Bauxite supply is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices [8]. - On the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - It is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking to cooperate with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite deposits in West Africa. Potential partners include the United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA) based in Dubai or a Chinese company [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were approximately 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum exports were approximately 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's national television announced a ministerial order signed by the Ministry of Mines and Geology, officially revoking the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all had long-idle mine rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mine rights were taken back by the state without compensation. This action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system, aiming to comprehensively improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, and the expected delay will result in losses of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The smelter was originally in the process of restarting, but due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28, both the electrolytic aluminum plant and the adjacent alumina plant were affected, and the restart plan was postponed. The electrolytic aluminum plant has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 228,000 tons. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint venture suspended the resumption of production at the smelter until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and the measures taken to prevent similar incidents from happening again. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart work of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain, which was suspended due to the previous nationwide power outage, had restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid-2026 [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - atmosphere boost pushed up aluminum - related varieties. Alumina was most significantly affected, but its over - supply pattern remained unchanged, so it's necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices. The rise of aluminum prices was more of a follow - up to the general increase in the sector, and the upside space was difficult to open for now. In the traditional off - season, both supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum were weak, while smelting profits were still high. The market would run strongly in the short - term due to the high macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to the performance near the previous high resistance level [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 21st, alumina once hit the daily limit, with the main contract 2509 reaching 3405 yuan/ton, and closing up 8.39% at 3386 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum 2509 rose 1.63% to 20840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index increased by 38002 to 674818 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 30. Cast aluminum alloy 2511 rose 1.41% to 20165, and the AD - AL negative spread widened to - 540 [8]. - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain had no significant changes. The market was mainly stimulated by the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology after the market closed on Friday. A work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals was about to be introduced [8]. - Currently in the traditional off - season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the demand side was still troubled by the off - season. The operating rate of the aluminum processing link was still weak. With the high absolute price of aluminum, the negative feedback effect on terminal consumption was expected to reappear, and the demand side was expected to continue the weak atmosphere [8]. - The alumina futures price soared, but the spot price increase was limited for the time being. The smelting profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry had exceeded 4200 yuan/ton, at a high level [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly due to the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation [9]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's research team went to Guangdong and Zhejiang for research, emphasizing promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market, and required accelerating the construction of "good houses" and taking multiple measures to stabilize the market [9]. - Alcoa expected its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April, and it restarted on July 14 after the Spanish government provided detailed reports and consultations on power outage reasons and grid resilience improvement measures [9][10].