Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The alumina market fundamentals have not improved, and the price is expected to remain weak due to sufficient short - term supply, significant imports, and high inventory levels. The supply side has increased, while the demand growth is limited, and there is no large - scale production cut plan for now. Attention should be paid to changes in the alumina supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the alumina futures (active) price dropped from 2713 yuan/ton to 2707 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price decreased from 2858 yuan/ton to 2856 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 164 yuan/ton to 183 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB price fell from 320 dollars/ton to 313.5 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss changed from - 6.92 yuan/ton to 50.13 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258413 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic and imported bauxite remained stable [3] 2. Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 0.22% last week, closing at 2707 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was 2856 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic bauxite supply shortage will continue, and the import bauxite price is expected to be under pressure. The alumina supply increased last week. As of November 27, the built - in capacity was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9630 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89%. The demand for alumina increased slightly, but the spot trading was weak. The futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2159 tons to 257000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 3. Market Outlook - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, while the imported bauxite from Guinea is abundant, with port ore inventory of about 29.5 million tons. The alumina operating capacity increased by 400000 tons to 96.3 million tons last week. The electrolytic aluminum industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with rigid consumption. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7503 tons to 258000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons. The alumina price is expected to remain weak [5][6] 4. Industry News - The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) proposed to cancel the export tariff on low - grade bauxite, restrict the import of finished aluminum products, and implement preferential railway freight rates. Metro Mining plans to increase the production capacity of its Bauxite Hills bauxite project in Queensland to 6.5 million tons in 2026. The Shanghai Futures Exchange added new alumina delivery warehouses in November [7] 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][12][15][17][19][20]

Summary of Bauxite Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The bauxite market in China is influenced by resource endowment, environmental policies, and an oversupply of imported bauxite. Supply stability is expected to improve in the coming years, but significant fluctuations in overall supply are not anticipated. The new "Natural Resources Law" may boost investment enthusiasm, but a substantial increase in production is unlikely in the short term [1][5][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Starting in 2025, the Chinese imported bauxite market is entering a buyer's market, with clear signs of oversupply. Guinean companies are expected to increase shipments, but the shutdown of the Shunda Hydropower Plant requires a reassessment of supply-demand balance. Despite this, bauxite prices remain at historically high levels [1][6]. - China's demand for bauxite heavily relies on imports, with the usage ratio of imported bauxite declining since April, particularly in Shanxi and Henan provinces, due to expanded losses in alumina production leading to reduced output. If losses persist, the usage ratio of imported bauxite may further decrease, impacting the market [1][9]. - The demand increase for bauxite mainly comes from inventory purchases for new projects, but the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum and alumina limits the upper demand for bauxite. New projects in Guangxi will increase the refining usage ratio, while high costs in Guizhou result in minimal usage, having a limited market impact [1][10]. Market Conditions - The bauxite market has been in a state of oversupply since December 2024, worsening in January 2025, with an oversupply of 6 million tons reported in April. Although most transactions are long-term contracts, the overall supply surplus exceeds 10 million tons [1][12][11]. - The price of alumina has been declining, currently around $70, and both alumina and bauxite are in a state of oversupply. Increased production could exacerbate this situation. Long-term, as long as alumina plants remain profitable, production will continue, contingent on production costs [1][13]. Regulatory and Operational Challenges - Recent mining rights revocation has led to production halts affecting approximately 25 million tons of output, potentially linked to tax issues. This situation requires monitoring of subsequent legal processes and agreement negotiations [1][3][14]. - The Guinean bauxite sector contributes about 30% to GDP, and fluctuations in aluminum prices significantly impact overall output. The Guinean government is developing downstream industries to attract investments from companies like Chalco and Yunnan Aluminum [1][18][20]. Future Projections - In the coming years, the stability of domestic bauxite supply in China is expected to improve, but significant increases or decreases in overall supply are not anticipated unless unforeseen incidents occur. The new "Natural Resources Law" may enhance investment enthusiasm but is not expected to lead to a substantial increase in production [1][5]. - The global bauxite supply is projected to increase by 25.61 million tons in 2025, with Guinea expected to contribute significantly to this increase. However, the overall market may face challenges due to the oversupply situation [1][23][40]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicates that even with high price levels, bauxite prices may stabilize between $75 and $80 unless a shortage occurs. The alumina market is expected to experience oversupply, limiting the purchase of high-priced bauxite [1][38]. - Long-term, there may be temporary spikes in demand due to capacity constraints in electrolytic aluminum production and new alumina projects, but prices are expected to revert once supply normalizes [1][39]. Conclusion - The bauxite market is currently characterized by oversupply, regulatory challenges, and fluctuating demand dynamics. Future projections suggest a stable supply environment, but significant changes in production levels are unlikely without external shocks. The market remains sensitive to price fluctuations and regulatory developments, particularly in Guinea and China [1][5][6][18].