瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 铝类市场周报 供给小涨需求提振，铝类或将有所支撑 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端氧化铝供应仍显偏多，氧化铝现货价格临近成本线，报价处低位，电解铝厂利润情况较好，生 产情绪较积极。供给端，国内前期置换产能项目逐渐完成并起槽投产，随着新增产能的释放，预计电解铝运行产能再 度小幅提升，开工处于高位令国内电解铝供给量或将保持小幅增长态势。需求端，政策方面的积极扩大消费，令铝材 消费预期走好，下游开工的提振亦将主力于铝需求的上升。应用消费方面，电网投资、新能源汽车、光伏、基建等领 域的政策支持，持续对铝消费形成支撑。总的来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给小增、需求提振的阶段。 策略建议：沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 策略建议：铸铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 4 「 期现市场」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡走势， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to be supported as the peak season approaches and demand recovers. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slight increase in supply and gradually rising demand [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend, rising 0.53% to 20,740 yuan/ton, while alumina showed a slightly downward trend, falling 3.25% to 3,036 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is expected to gradually decline due to the rainy season in Guinea. Although raw material shipments will be affected, the supply of domestic alumina may remain stable with a slight increase due to sufficient port inventory and good smelting profits. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum will remain stable. The industry is expected to gradually recover as the traditional peak season approaches [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, so smelters are more active in production. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to pick up, although export demand will decline due to tariff issues [5]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs may lead to a reduction in smelter production capacity. With the arrival of the peak season and government subsidies, consumption is expected to recover, and high - level inventory may gradually be reduced [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina and cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: - As of August 29, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,765 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 22; LME aluminum closed at 2,607 dollars/ton on August 28, up 1.16% from August 21. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.12 from August 22 [10][11]. - Alumina futures weakened, with the price dropping 3.87% to 3,006 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. Cast aluminum futures rose, with the price rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton during the same period [14]. - The copper - aluminum price difference increased by 610 yuan/ton to 58,670 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc price difference decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 1,400 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29 [22]. - In the spot market, alumina prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased slightly, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 1.47% to 20,750 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots decreased by 0.14% to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][32]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 29, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.29% to 576,966 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 8,544 lots to 4,602 lots compared with August 22 [17]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of August 28, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.34% to 481,150 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5% to 567,000 tons. As of August 29, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.8% to 125,596 tons, and the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.6% to 58,629 tons [36][37]. - The total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 2,788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18 million tons [40]. - **Raw Material Imports**: - In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [40]. - In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%, and the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [46]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, alumina production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33%, and the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.91% [48][49]. - In July 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume in July was 41,000 tons [52]. - In July 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July, the domestic in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.11% from the same period last year [56，]. - In July 2025, aluminum product production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%, and the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60]. - In June 2025, the monthly production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The production volume was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [63]. - In July 2025, aluminum alloy production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%, and the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [66]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, and the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69]. - From January to July 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%, and the production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72]. 4. Options Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The supply is expected to remain relatively sufficient in the short - term, and the demand is supported by the high aluminum price and the progress of an electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Yunnan [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The impact of the consumption off - season is intensifying, and industrial inventories are accumulating slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices; for the Alumina main contract, conduct light - position range - bound trading, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly with a weekly change of - 0.89%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly with a weekly change of + 0.51%, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina's supply may increase slightly and demand remain stable; electrolytic aluminum's supply is stable and demand is weak, with inventory accumulation due to the off - season [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell Shanghai Aluminum main contract lightly at high prices and trade Alumina main contract lightly in a range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 18, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum futures price was 20,565 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from July 11; LME Aluminum was 2,589 dollars/ton, down 0.65%; Alumina futures price was 3,148 yuan/ton, down 1.47%; Cast Aluminum futures price was 19,875 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [12][16]. - **Futures Ratios and Spreads**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.9 on July 18, up 0.06 from July 11. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,785 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,900 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton [13][24]. - **Futures Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 636,816 lots on July 18, down 7.95% from July 11, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 19,826 lots [19]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang increased, while cast aluminum spot prices remained flat. A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 11, with a spot premium of 120 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [26][27][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 17, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 427,200 tons, up 7.95%; SHFE inventory was 108,822 tons, up 5.45%; domestic social inventory was 431,000 tons, up 4.61%. SHFE and LME registered warrants also increased [35]. - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports in May 2025 were 17.5145 million tons, down 15.28% month - on - month but up 29.43% year - on - year. Nine - port inventory was 24.94 million tons, up 400,000 tons. Scrap aluminum prices in Shandong dropped slightly, and imports and exports increased year - on - year in May [38][44]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; recycled aluminum alloy production was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year; aluminum alloy production was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. Alumina imports decreased year - on - year in May, while exports increased. Electrolytic aluminum imports increased year - on - year in May [47][54][64]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month. New housing starts and completions decreased year - on - year from January to June 2024. Infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year from January to June 2024, and automobile sales and production in June 2025 increased year - on - year [67][70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [72].