Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and improving demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of gradually decreasing supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [8]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage of decreasing supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory, and it is recommended to lightly trade the main contract of cast aluminum in a volatile manner [10]. - Considering that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The supply side has high smelting profits and high operating rates, and the supply may increase slightly. The demand side is boosted by the domestic macro - economy and the traditional peak season, with improved downstream operations and obvious inventory reduction. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [7]. - **Alumina**: The raw material port inventory is decreasing, and the supply may decrease due to profit losses. The demand is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply is restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is stable but affected by high raw material prices. The inventory is relatively high. It is recommended to lightly trade the main contract in a volatile manner [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,885 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from October 10; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,796 US dollars/ton, up 0.49% from October 10. The alumina futures price was 2,779 yuan/ton, down 1.94% from October 10; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,390 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from October 10 [13][17]. - **Position Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 495,719 lots, down 3.11% from October 10, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 7,345 lots from October 10 [20]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 905 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan/ton from October 10; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 63,480 yuan/ton, down 1,450 yuan/ton from October 10 [25]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of alumina, cast aluminum, and domestic Shanghai Aluminum all weakened. For example, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from October 10 [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 495,325 tons, down 2.61% from October 9; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 122,028 tons, down 2.2% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons, down 3.7% from October 9 [38]. - **Raw Materials**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. The scrap aluminum quotation was firm, with increased imports and decreased exports [41][48]. - **Production and Trade**: In August 2025, the alumina production increased year - on - year, with decreased imports and exports month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum import increased year - on - year; the electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year in the cumulative value; the total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, with increased imports and decreased exports year - on - year; the production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year; the total production of aluminum alloy increased, with decreased imports and increased exports [51][54][62]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly, the infrastructure investment was favorable, and the automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [71][74]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices with light positions [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of stable supply and slight increase in demand, and it is recommended to conduct oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina with light positions [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slowing supply and increasing demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - term long trading on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with light positions [8]. - Considering the subsequent support for aluminum prices, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [73]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed an oscillating trend with a weekly change of - 0.24%, closing at 20,745 yuan/ton; alumina showed an oscillating and weakening trend with a weekly change of - 1.76%, closing at 2,901 yuan/ton; the main contract of cast aluminum showed an oscillating trend with a weekly change of - 0.15%, closing at 20,325 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [5][6][8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,755 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.12% from September 19; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,664 US dollars/ton, down 41 US dollars/ton or 1.52% from September 19; the alumina futures price was 2,871 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton or 1.51% from September 19; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,325 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.15% from September 19 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.79, down 0.05 from September 19; the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from September 19; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 61,725 yuan/ton, up 2,610 yuan/ton from September 19 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 486,848 lots, down 38,230 lots or 7.28% from September 19; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, up 11,467 lots from September 19 [18]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 2.15% from September 19; in Shanxi it was 2,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.01% from September 19; in Guiyang it was 2,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.01% from September 19; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.24% from September 19; the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.05% from September 19, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 26, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 3,800 tons or 0.74% from September 19; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 124,626 tons, down 3,108 tons or 2.43% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 567,000 tons, down 27,000 tons or 4.55% from September 18; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 63,230 tons, down 8,729 tons or 12.13% from September 19; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts totaled 407,850 tons, up 3,175 tons or 0.78% from September 18 [36]. - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the inventory of nine ports of domestic bauxite was 27.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 170,000 tons. In August 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.2898 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.81% and a year - on - year increase of 18.17%. From January to August, the import of bauxite was 141.4976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38% [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments was 172,610.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%; the export was 53.23 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [45]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was 7.9247 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; from January to August, the cumulative output of alumina was 60.5232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In August 2025, the import of alumina was 94,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03% and a year - on - year increase of 1398.2%; the export was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.74% and a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. From January to August, the cumulative import of alumina was 488,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.3% [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In August 2025, the import of electrolytic aluminum was 217,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%; from January to August, the cumulative import of electrolytic aluminum was 1.7142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.34%; in August 2025, the export of electrolytic aluminum was 25,600 tons, and from January to August, the cumulative export of electrolytic aluminum was 152,500 tons. From January to July 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply gap of - 119,900 tons. In August 2025, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%; from January to August, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 30.138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In August 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 1.99%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 98.11%, an increase of 0.33% from last month and a decrease of 1.41% from the same period last year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In August 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.5482 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 43.7898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%. In August 2025, the import of aluminum products was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%; the export was 530,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. From January to August, the import of aluminum products was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%; the export was 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In August 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 18.8%; the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 635,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.04 and a year - on - year increase of 11.77% [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In August 2025, the output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%; from January to August, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 12.324 million tons. In August 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.74%; the export was 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.29%. From January to August, the import of aluminum alloy was 683,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the export was 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.73% [65]. - **Real Estate**: In August 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.28 from last month and an increase of 0.81 from the same period last year. From January to August 2024, the newly started area of housing was 398.0101 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.54%; the completed area of housing was 276.9354 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.94% [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to August 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,856,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.44%; the production volume of Chinese automobiles was 2,815,413 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.96% [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - It is recommended to consider constructing a double - buying strategy to go long on volatility due to the subsequent support for aluminum prices [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to be supported as the peak season approaches and demand recovers. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slight increase in supply and gradually rising demand [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend, rising 0.53% to 20,740 yuan/ton, while alumina showed a slightly downward trend, falling 3.25% to 3,036 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is expected to gradually decline due to the rainy season in Guinea. Although raw material shipments will be affected, the supply of domestic alumina may remain stable with a slight increase due to sufficient port inventory and good smelting profits. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum will remain stable. The industry is expected to gradually recover as the traditional peak season approaches [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, so smelters are more active in production. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to pick up, although export demand will decline due to tariff issues [5]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs may lead to a reduction in smelter production capacity. With the arrival of the peak season and government subsidies, consumption is expected to recover, and high - level inventory may gradually be reduced [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina and cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: - As of August 29, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,765 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 22; LME aluminum closed at 2,607 dollars/ton on August 28, up 1.16% from August 21. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.12 from August 22 [10][11]. - Alumina futures weakened, with the price dropping 3.87% to 3,006 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. Cast aluminum futures rose, with the price rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton during the same period [14]. - The copper - aluminum price difference increased by 610 yuan/ton to 58,670 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc price difference decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 1,400 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29 [22]. - In the spot market, alumina prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased slightly, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 1.47% to 20,750 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots decreased by 0.14% to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][32]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 29, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.29% to 576,966 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 8,544 lots to 4,602 lots compared with August 22 [17]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of August 28, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.34% to 481,150 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5% to 567,000 tons. As of August 29, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.8% to 125,596 tons, and the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.6% to 58,629 tons [36][37]. - The total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 2,788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18 million tons [40]. - **Raw Material Imports**: - In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [40]. - In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%, and the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [46]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, alumina production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33%, and the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.91% [48][49]. - In July 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume in July was 41,000 tons [52]. - In July 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July, the domestic in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.11% from the same period last year [56，]. - In July 2025, aluminum product production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%, and the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60]. - In June 2025, the monthly production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The production volume was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [63]. - In July 2025, aluminum alloy production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%, and the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [66]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, and the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69]. - From January to July 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%, and the production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72]. 4. Options Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The supply is expected to remain relatively sufficient in the short - term, and the demand is supported by the high aluminum price and the progress of an electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Yunnan [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The impact of the consumption off - season is intensifying, and industrial inventories are accumulating slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: For the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices; for the Alumina main contract, conduct light - position range - bound trading, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated weakly with a weekly change of - 0.89%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly with a weekly change of + 0.51%, closing at 3,133 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina's supply may increase slightly and demand remain stable; electrolytic aluminum's supply is stable and demand is weak, with inventory accumulation due to the off - season [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell Shanghai Aluminum main contract lightly at high prices and trade Alumina main contract lightly in a range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 18, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum futures price was 20,565 yuan/ton, down 1.3% from July 11; LME Aluminum was 2,589 dollars/ton, down 0.65%; Alumina futures price was 3,148 yuan/ton, down 1.47%; Cast Aluminum futures price was 19,875 yuan/ton, down 0.28% [12][16]. - **Futures Ratios and Spreads**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.9 on July 18, up 0.06 from July 11. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,785 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,900 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton [13][24]. - **Futures Positions**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 636,816 lots on July 18, down 7.95% from July 11, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 19,826 lots [19]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang increased, while cast aluminum spot prices remained flat. A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 11, with a spot premium of 120 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [26][27][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 17, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 427,200 tons, up 7.95%; SHFE inventory was 108,822 tons, up 5.45%; domestic social inventory was 431,000 tons, up 4.61%. SHFE and LME registered warrants also increased [35]. - **Raw Materials**: Aluminum ore imports in May 2025 were 17.5145 million tons, down 15.28% month - on - month but up 29.43% year - on - year. Nine - port inventory was 24.94 million tons, up 400,000 tons. Scrap aluminum prices in Shandong dropped slightly, and imports and exports increased year - on - year in May [38][44]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; recycled aluminum alloy production was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year; aluminum alloy production was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. Alumina imports decreased year - on - year in May, while exports increased. Electrolytic aluminum imports increased year - on - year in May [47][54][64]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month. New housing starts and completions decreased year - on - year from January to June 2024. Infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year from January to June 2024, and automobile sales and production in June 2025 increased year - on - year [67][70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [72].