1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the aluminum price showed internal and external divergence, with SHFE aluminum down 0.17% and LME aluminum up 2.79%. Fundamentally, the profit of primary aluminum smelting is at a historical high, but the room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products has recovered in the peak season. Although there is still uncertainty in demand, under the expectation of the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum, the expectation of ingot inventory accumulation is not strong. Coupled with the tight overseas spot, the aluminum price is expected to rise in the shock. This month, the operating range of the main contract of SHFE aluminum is expected to be between 20,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,600 - 2,900 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. The bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month. The total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. The global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 20 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 1.6 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened month-on-month, and the export advantage of aluminum products increased [12]. - Demand side: According to SMM research, the comprehensive PMI of aluminum processing in September was 55.7%, an increase of 2.4% month-on-month. Many sectors such as aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and industrial profiles were in the expansion range, with good performance in production and new orders; however, the demand for building materials and building profiles was weak due to the impact of real estate and funds, showing a differentiated trend in the industry [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: In September, SHFE aluminum fluctuated, down 0.17% for the month; LME aluminum rose 2.79% for the month. At the beginning of October, the aluminum prices of both domestic and overseas markets strengthened again [20]. - Term Spread: In September, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum converged [25]. - Spot Basis: In September, the spot in East and South China was at a discount to futures most of the time, while the Central China region turned to a premium [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In September, the spot in Central China was relatively stronger [35]. - LME Premium and Discount: In September, the LME aluminum Cash/3M fluctuated around par [39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In September, the profit of primary aluminum smelting increased month-on-month and was at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. At the beginning of October, the inventory rebounded [48]. - Bonded Area Inventory: At the end of September, the bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month [48]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of September, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. During the National Day holiday, the inventory increased significantly [51]. - LME Inventory: At the end of September, the global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In September, the domestic bauxite price decreased by 4 yuan/ton month-on-month [67]. - Alumina Price: In September, the domestic alumina price decreased by 210 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the import price decreased by 41 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In September, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton month-on-month [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased by 1.5% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year. As of the end of September, the built - in capacity of alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 1.5% month-on-month, and the operating rate was 80.2% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year-on-year [83]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons. It is expected that the molten aluminum ratio will continue to increase in October [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In September, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province decreased compared with August, among which Shandong's output decreased by 38,400 tons [91]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum plates and foils rebounded in August [102]. - In September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots rebounded month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month-on-month in August [105]. - In August, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. In September, the price difference between primary and recycled aluminum narrowed by 194 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in October 2025, the production scheduling of household air conditioners was 1.153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, with the decline expanding, and the month-on-month trend was stable; the production scheduling of refrigerators was 863,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, with the decline narrowing slightly; the production scheduling of washing machines was 908,000 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real estate data is still weak, the production and sales of automobiles are acceptable, and the production scheduling of photovoltaic modules is stable [112]. 3.7 Import and Export - Import: - In August 2025, China's imports of primary aluminum were 217,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.714 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened [117]. - In August, the imports of aluminum ingots mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the imports from Russia accounted for 63%, and the imports from India increased to 15% [121]. - Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%; from January to August, the cumulative exports were 4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [125]. - Other Imports and Exports: - In August 2025, China's imports of bauxite were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative imports of bauxite were 141.49 million tons [128]. - In August 2025, China's exports of alumina were 180,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative exports of alumina were 1.753 million tons [128].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]