Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [5] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons [3] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5, most others will stop around mid - January, and some expect to stop after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - Finished steel prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down [4] Aluminum Ingot - Macroscopically, the US PPI data in June was unexpectedly lower than expected, affected by the decline in service prices, and the market also focuses on the US fiscal and debt prospects and the pressure on Powell [3] - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total production capacity was 88.57 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92% [4] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by ships flying the Guinean flag, and its bauxite exports have increased by 37% year - on - year as of 2025. As of the end of June, alumina enterprises' in - plant inventory increased by 81,000 tons [4] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% last week [4] - On July 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 492,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 26,000 tons from last Thursday [4] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of aluminum water in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and a significant increase in the supply of aluminum ingots [4]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to production and policy factors, the supply and demand of domestic bauxite in June are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The price of alumina may fluctuate widely, and the price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously strong. It is recommended that investors wait and see for alumina and try to go long on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract was 19,860 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 183,523 lots, up 12,432 lots; the open interest was 191,144 lots, down 4,520 lots; the inventory was 20,894 tons, down 224 tons [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,120 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 1.2 Alumina Futures - The closing price was 2,998 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the trading volume was 423,143 lots, down 116,816 lots; the open interest was 311,224 lots, down 9,045 lots; the inventory was 113,487 tons, down 14,714 tons [2] - The basis was 277.52 yuan/ton, down 36.01 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 64 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 1.3 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,638.5 US dollars/ton, up 23.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 52.31 US dollars/ton, up 0.82 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 116.75 US dollars/ton, up 11.74 US dollars; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 8.0389, down 0.08 [2] 2. Industry News 2.1 Alumina - Shanxi and Henan's bauxite mining has not fully resumed, and some enterprises in Guinea may stop production. Guangxi plans a ten - year special inspection. The price of bauxite may rise, and domestic bauxite production and imports in June may decrease [3] - The operating rate of China's alumina production capacity increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina decreased. New and renovated alumina production capacities are being built, which may increase the production of alumina [3] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum production capacities are expected to be put into production in the future, which may increase the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum in June. The import volume may increase, but the closed import window may limit imports [3] - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in bonded areas increased, and the inventory in major consumption areas decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises was stable overall, with some fluctuations [3] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The production and import of scrap aluminum in China may decrease in June due to factors such as competition in overseas scrap aluminum procurement and price differentials. The operating rate of some aluminum alloy production capacities decreased [3] 3. Transaction Strategies - For alumina, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2,000 - 2,000 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3] - For Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 and the pressure level around 20,300 - 20,500. For London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 and the pressure level around 2,500 - 2,800 [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with alumina futures experiencing a decline of approximately 3.03% [1] - As of April 30, the spot price of alumina in China was 2879 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.03% [1] - In Shandong, the spot transaction price for alumina was reported at 2875 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous transaction [1] Group 2 - The supply of alumina is under pressure due to a combination of maintenance and production recovery, with a slight increase in operational capacity, but it is still insufficient to meet the demand for electrolytic aluminum [2] - The market is expected to maintain a low valuation for alumina due to ongoing oversupply concerns and macroeconomic instability [2] - Companies are advised to monitor the operational rates of domestic alumina producers and fluctuations in imported ore prices [2]