Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in prices, but the overall supply-demand dynamics suggest a potential oversupply situation in the medium term [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 4, 2025, the main aluminum oxide futures contract closed at 3024 CNY/ton, with a weekly price change of 1.54% [1]. - The weekly trading range was between 2980 CNY/ton and 3083 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 21,409 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Inventory and Production - Domestic aluminum oxide inventory at ports reached 43,000 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total built capacity for metallurgical-grade aluminum oxide in the country is 110.82 million tons/year, with an operational capacity of 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97% [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Xinyi Futures, the macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with concerns about ore disturbances persisting, but domestic bauxite inventory remains high, limiting short-term supply tightness [3]. - The overall aluminum oxide production capacity is still increasing, while downstream demand is not expected to grow significantly, leading to a challenging oversupply scenario [3]. - Newhu Futures indicates that the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants are cautious about purchasing due to expectations of price declines, while aluminum oxide producers are maintaining stable prices without inventory pressure [4]. Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide production capacity is stable, with slight increases in consumption, but the overall market remains in a state of supply abundance [4]. - There are plans for new production capacity in the future, and previously shut-down capacities may resume, reinforcing the expectation of oversupply in the medium term [4].

矿端扰动持续， 期价维持宽幅震荡 氧化铝月报 2025/07/04 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 月度评估 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 月度评估 月度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截止7月4日，月内氧化铝指数较6月3日价格累计上涨1.02%至3011元/吨。因几内亚"禁采风波"没有进一步发酵，氧化铝期价逐步回落。进入下旬，随着宏观情绪改 善，商品整体走强，带动氧化铝期价企稳回升。7月2日，几内亚政府宣布创立铝土矿指数以增加国家税收，或将带动矿价重心上移，驱动氧化铝期价进一步上行。但中期氧化铝 供需过剩格局仍难改，预计反弹空间有限。基差方面，本月基差逐步回落，截止7月4日，山东现货价格较氧化铝主力合约价格升水66元/吨。月差方面，连一和连三月差维持震荡， 截止7月4日，连一和连三月差录得59元/吨。。 ◆ 现货价格：随着利润回升，前期检修产能逐步回归，氧化铝供应重回宽松，驱动6月氧化铝现货价格 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工视点】 烧碱专题： 下游氧化铝需求分析 专题报告 在烧碱的下游需求中，氧化铝需求占比最大，达到30%，对烧碱有较强的议价能力，而今年烧碱行情的大 涨大跌，背后与氧化铝有着密切的关联，下文我们将从氧化铝角度分析烧碱的需求，以及背后驱动今年行情剧 烈波动的原因。 1、进口铝土矿耗碱量低 氧化铝是烧碱最大的下游，占比为30%，烧碱需求量跟氧化铝行业产量增速密切相关，烧碱的需求受到氧 化铝产量增速影响以外，还受到铝土矿品质的影响。氧化铝生产工艺有三种，为拜耳法、烧结法、拜耳烧结联 合法，由于拜耳法生产工艺简单，流程短，产品质量高，目前主流的生产方法是拜耳法，约占全国氧化铝产能 的90%以上，全球占比达到95%以上。拜耳法使用烧碱，适于处理高品位的铝土矿； 烧结法使用轻碱；联合法 产能很少，仅山西、重庆地区部分氧化铝装置维持两种方法共存的生产工艺，一般两者价差波动不大时，不太 会轻易更换设备，只有价差严重失衡时，才会选择更换设备。 想要 ge 代招 铝+矿 the may 智液 aku 曲级铝 | 矿石类型 | 铝硅比(Al/Si) | 单吨氧化铝耗碱量(kg) | 矿耗(吨矿/吨氧 ...

库存拐点与产能压力 氧化铝期货价格再度大跌的核心原因在于库存拐点已经到来。氧化铝周度产量连续3周呈现增加态势，叠加印尼氧化铝新投项目的首批3万余吨氧化铝在6月 初到港，这些因素促使氧化铝社会库存从5月以来的持续去化转为累积状态。进入6月份，氧化铝供应端显著恢复，产能过剩压力陡然增加。 按照当前几内亚矿石价格在75美元/吨的水平测算，氧化铝现货价格在3300元/吨时，国内氧化铝厂仍具备较高的利润空间。若几内亚铝土矿的停产规模不再 进一步扩大，国内铝土矿供应将呈现上半年宽松、9-11月季节性偏紧、全年供需平衡的格局特征。考虑到6月氧化铝产能将提升至9200万吨附近，氧化铝价 格预计向高成本产能的现金成本靠拢后震荡运行。若前期氧化铝减产的产能出现复产，使氧化铝产能超过9200万吨，氧化铝价格将面临进一步承压。 氧化铝期货在夜盘交易时段出现反弹走势。昨日早盘，主力合约2509出现下挫，下午收盘时报2943元/吨，跌幅达2.9%。夜盘开盘后，该合约一度触及2928 元/吨的低点，随后展现反弹态势，收盘时报2953元/吨。值得关注的是，前一交易日2509合约曾上涨2.17%。 市场供需格局变化 氧化铝期货盘面活跃度近期明 ...

SHMET 网讯： 进入5月以后，氧化铝自历史低位反弹，逐渐上涨至一个月高位。上周五，基本面突传利好，期价盘中迅速拉升并触及涨停。 氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？目前国内氧化铝企业开工如何？供应端压力较前期 有减弱吗？短期氧化铝强势状态能延续吗？未来需要重点关注哪些影响因素？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货专家为您详细阐述。 【机构会诊】：氧化铝大幅反弹，主要受几内亚矿业政策扰动吗？几内亚采矿证撤销问题会对供应端产生什么样的影响？ 中原期货投资咨询部高级研究员 刘培洋：根据Mysteel报道，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令。该矿区包含顺达矿业等矿业公 司，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨（主要包括顺达1300万吨、中电十一局1000万吨），目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销 46家矿业公司采矿证后 ，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。受此影响，上周五晚间，氧化铝期货多个合约大幅上涨，盘中最高一度触及涨停。 中银国际期货研究咨询部有色高级研究员 刘超：几内亚是全球最大的铝土矿生产国之 ...

SHMET 网讯： 上月氧化铝创新低后，供应端检修减产给市场打了剂"强心针"，盘面企稳反弹，五一节后，在消息面与基本面的共同作用下，氧化铝期价重心不断上移，今 日主力盘中站上3000关口，创一个半月新高，氧化铝格局就此转变了吗？ 消息面扰动，提振氧化铝盘面上涨 工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、自然资源部、生态环境部等十部门印发《铝产业高质量发展实施方案（2025—2027年）》明确提出，推动铝产业结构调 整，大气污染防治重点区域不再新增电解铝、氧化铝产能。但据经济参考报记者调查发现，在重点区域，部分企业打着"氢氧化铝项目"的名义，"曲线"顶风 上马氧化铝项目。河北文丰集团旗下河北文丰新材料有限公司在氧化铝项目审批过程中存在违规操作问题，公开信息显示，该公司位于唐山市曹妃甸工业区 的项目最初以年产480万吨氢氧化铝立项，但后期通过技术改造转为生产冶金级氧化铝。河北省发改委2024年1月10日出具的节能审查不予行政许可决定书明 确指出，该项目未通过氧化铝产能审批。然而环保验收监测报告显示，项目实际建成3条年产180万吨冶金级氧化铝生产线，并宣称已实现480万吨产能。如 果出现关停，短期内将缓解现货供应的压力。受该 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the cost - inversion situation of alumina enterprises was still severe, production willingness decreased, and some enterprises cut production. There are still maintenance and production - cut plans in the future. The new northern production capacity has not shown an increase in supply, and there are negative news, leading to market观望 about its future production increase [3][8]. - The demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly about capacity transfer last week, with theoretical demand remaining basically unchanged. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [3][8]. - Overall, some alumina enterprises are still in a theoretical loss state. With maintenance and production - cut plans and the new production capacity causing concerns, the alumina has good bottom support. However, it is also affected by the new production capacity commissioning process and the potential decline in costs, so it has the impetus to rebound but the height is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2729 | 2827 | 98 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2900 | 2907 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 149 | 77 | -72 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 348 | 349 | 1 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -285.39 | -280.49 | 4.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 271413 | 242563 | -28850 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 7200 | 7200 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 77 | 75 | -2 | US dollars/ton | [4] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 2.59% last week, closing at 2,827 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,907 Yuan/ton, up 7 Yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - For bauxite, the cost pressure of alumina producers was slightly relieved. After the holiday, inland alumina enterprises lowered the purchase price of domestic ore, and there were rumors about the second - quarter price cut of Guinea's long - term bauxite contracts [6]. - On the supply side, some new alumina production capacity was put into operation last week, but some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts. As of May 8, China's alumina production capacity was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25% [6]. - On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong continued to transfer to Yunnan, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry remained stable, with no obvious change in the demand for alumina. As of now, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, the same as last week [6]. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The situation is the same as the core views, including cost - inversion, production cuts, new production capacity issues, stable demand, and the situation of inventory change. Alumina has support at the bottom and rebound impetus but limited upside [8]. Industry News - The Shanxi Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision issued a notice to standardize mine safety supervision and law - enforcement behavior, aiming to improve law - enforcement efficiency and prevent mine safety accidents [9]. - Guinea held a publicity seminar to promote the national framework for compensating, indemnifying, and resettling the population affected by development projects [9]. - Lindian Resources acquired the remaining 25% stake in Bauxite Holding to gain full ownership of the Lelouma bauxite project in Guinea and eliminate risks related to ownership dilution and finance [9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [10][12][13]

4月30日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，氧化铝期货主力合约开盘报2752.0元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，氧化铝主力最高触及2769.0元，下方探低2685.0元，跌幅达3.03%附近。 现货方面，4月国内氧化铝现货价格跌后盘整运行，截至4月30日，氧化铝市价2879元/吨，环比上月跌 6.47%，同比去年跌17.03%。 4月29日据调研了解，山东地区氧化铝现货成交0.2万吨，成交价为2875元/吨（出厂价），此笔成交较 上一笔上涨5元/吨。 周一询得新疆地区铝厂招标采购部分氧化铝现货，成交价格新疆到厂3160-3220元/吨左右，主要集中在 3180-3200元/吨。 后市来看，氧化铝期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 国新国证期货表示，氧化铝企业开工情况仍在快速变动，因前期集中检修减产，市场供应压力减轻，交 易所仓单库存少量下降，氧化铝底部暂有支撑。但新增产能逐步推进，海外氧化铝产能亦准备落地，未 来供应压力仍大，中长期利空仍存。 中财期货指出，矿端进口量处于历史高位，供应充足，矿价下降；氧化铝检修复产并存，当周运行产能 微升，短期暂不能有效匹配电解铝需求，氧化铝库存出现下滑 ...