齐鲁银行 20250526 摘要 齐鲁银行积极扩张，计划覆盖山东省所有县域，目前县域存贷款占比约 30%，目标是 100%覆盖，提升资产规模和低成本存款竞争力。 山东经济结构稳定，工业门类齐全，农业基础雄厚，经济增速优于全国 平均水平，为齐鲁银行等城商行提供了良好的发展基础。 预计 2025 年齐鲁银行信贷增速将维持在 12%-13%的较高水平，高于 全国平均水平，主要通过抢占市场份额实现双位数增长。 齐鲁银行对公贷款占比较高，广义基建类政府相关贷款占比约为 42%， 同时加大普惠小微企业信贷投放，占比接近 30%，与县域经济深度绑定。 齐鲁银行息差绝对值不高，但存款付息率低于同业水平，资产质量优异， 不良净生成率持续下降，无房地产对公贷款和高风险零售贷款。 齐鲁银行利润高增长主要源于信用成本的下降，资产质量持续改善，拨 备覆盖率上升，非贷款减值计提充分，为未来盈利提供支撑。 齐鲁银行通过分支机构扩张、聚焦县域市场、资产质量改善等方式，有 望进一步提升市场占有率，实现利润高增长，维持买入评级。 Q&A 齐鲁银行在山东省的业务扩展情况如何？ 齐鲁银行近年来在山东省持续扩展分支机构，目标是成为山东省最大的城商行。 ...

报告指出，美元信贷有所下降，欧元和日元信贷上升。2024年第四季度，对非美国银行的美元信贷下降 了1030亿美元，年增长率降至3%，余额降至13.2万亿美元。欧元区对非欧元区银行的欧元信贷增加了 670亿欧元，同比增长8.9%，余额达到4.5万亿欧元。对非日本银行的日元信贷增加了11%，余额达到 69.2万亿日元。报告还指出，美元、欧元、日元对新兴市场和发展中经济体的信贷增长率与各自汇率指 数反向变动。在美元普遍升值的背景下，2024年对新兴市场和发展中经济体的美元信贷几乎停滞不前， 仅增长0.5%。相较之下，欧元升值的放缓与对于新兴市场和发展中经济体的欧元信贷增长率上升保持 一致，后者在2024年增长了5.9%。 报告还指出，不同区域信贷比例变动显著。过去10年，对非洲和中东地区的美元信贷大幅增加，上述地 区在2024年对新兴市场和发展中经济体信贷中所占份额比例从2014年的14%上升至2024年的27%，超过 拉丁美洲。过去10年中对非洲和中东地区美元信贷的增长中，约有三分之二归因于对海湾合作委员会国 家的贷款。 （文章来源：经济日报） 日前，国际清算银行发布了截至2024年底的国际银行统计和全球流动性指 ...

预期内盈利承压，拥抱稳定、可持续、可预期的回报确定性 银行业2025年一季报综述 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 研究支持： 李禹昊 A0230123070008 联系人： 冯思远 A0230522090005 2025.5.6 投资要点 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 一季报再度出现营收利润双双下滑（营收、归母净利润分别同比下降1.7%、1.2%），除去预期内息差下行和非息基数压力对营收 的拖累外，拨备反哺力度略低于预期是利润未能如期维持正增的主因。其中，国有大行和个别股份行业绩表现低于预期，城农商行 基本上符合预期。 ◼ 开年以来贷款增长平稳符合预期，从区域上看江浙、成都等地景气度依旧较高，而重庆则成为"后起新星"：1Q25上市银行贷款增 速较年初持平7.9%，其中国有行维持约9%锚定行业增长、股份行低位降速至约4%、农商行受中小客群需求转弱拖累增速降至6.7%， 城商行总体上信贷景气度更优，除江浙一带和成都地区外，重庆银行贷款增速超16%（其中对公超30%）成为投放"新星"。 展望 全年，加征关税对银行的影响主要 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 15% increase in net income and a 14% increase in earnings per share for FY 2024 [20] - Revenue remained relatively flat, with expenses increasing by about 2%, leading to a 3% decline in adjusted pre-provision net revenue [20] - Return on assets improved from 77 basis points in the prior year to 88 basis points in FY 2024 [20] - The efficiency ratio increased due to flat revenue and higher expenses, while charge-offs and credit quality remained strong at 10 basis points, significantly better than the industry average [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's deposit franchise showed strong performance, with average non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits higher than the top quartile in the industry [21] - Credit quality remained robust, with net loan losses staying very low, better than the top quartile [22] - The commercial real estate portfolio grew at a disciplined rate, with loss rates close to zero over the past five years [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The bank's capital position is about the median of its peer group, expected to strengthen as depreciation in the securities portfolio accretes back into capital over time [26] - The bank has consistently ranked among the best in customer relationships, receiving numerous awards since 2009 [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on serving local communities and maintaining strong credit quality, with a particular emphasis on middle-market businesses [19] - The management is closely monitoring the economic environment, especially regarding tariffs and potential recession impacts, while aiming to support customers through challenging times [28] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the year ahead despite concerns regarding the economy and potential impacts from tariffs [28] - The company aims to maintain its strong credit culture to weather any economic challenges that may arise [23] Other Important Information - The bank's performance in FY 2024 reflected a recovery from the previous year's challenges, including the impact of bank failures on funding costs and net interest margins [20] - The bank's management structure is locally oriented, enhancing its ability to serve community needs effectively [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the commercial real estate portfolio? - Management noted that while there are concerns in the commercial real estate sector, particularly in office and multifamily segments, they do not anticipate material losses from their portfolio, which has been managed conservatively [24] Question: How does the bank plan to address potential economic downturns? - The bank intends to stay close to its customers and provide support during challenging times, leveraging its strong credit culture to navigate uncertainties [28] Question: What are the results of the recent shareholder votes? - All director nominees received over 97% approval, the appointment of Ernst and Young as auditors was approved by approximately 98%, and the executive compensation resolution received about 95% approval [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.66 [8][10]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability with a year-on-year increase in net profit and operating income of 17.3% and 2.2% respectively for Q1 2025, maintaining a high annualized ROE of 20.60% [1]. - Credit growth remains robust, with total assets, loans, and deposits increasing by 15.9%, 14.3%, and 21.1% respectively as of March 2025 [2]. - Non-interest income continues to grow, with a 22.2% increase in fee-based income, contributing to 14.1% of total revenue [3]. - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530% as of March 2025 [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 19.55 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 15.1% [5]. Summary by Sections Profitability and Growth - The company reported a net profit of RMB 19.55 billion for 2025, with a projected growth of 15.1% [5]. - The annualized ROE and ROA for Q1 2025 are 20.60% and 1.11% respectively, indicating strong profitability [1]. Credit and Asset Quality - As of March 2025, total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 15.9%, 14.3%, and 21.1% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 530%, indicating solid asset quality [4]. Non-Interest Income and Cost Management - Non-interest income decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, while fee-based income increased by 22.2%, contributing to a higher proportion of total revenue [3]. - The cost-to-income ratio improved to 23.7%, reflecting operational efficiency [3]. Capital and Valuation - The capital adequacy ratio and core tier 1 capital ratio are 14.05% and 9.01% respectively, showing a healthy capital position [4]. - The target price of RMB 17.66 corresponds to a price-to-book ratio of 0.91 for 2025, indicating a premium valuation compared to peers [5].

Core Viewpoints - The bank's Q1 2025 operating income, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders showed year-on-year growth rates of -4.06%, -4.38%, and 0.31% respectively, with changes of +2.99 percentage points, +5.26 percentage points, and -1.91 percentage points compared to Q4 2024 [1] Group 1: Highlights - Loan growth rebounded with a year-on-year increase of 5.24% by the end of Q1 2025, up 1.36 percentage points from Q4 2024, driven by targeted credit allocation in key sectors such as technology, green finance, and inclusive finance [2] - Deposit growth showed recovery with a year-on-year increase of 3.49% by the end of Q1 2025, up 4.92 percentage points from Q4 2024, resulting in an additional 202.7 billion yuan in deposits for the quarter [2] - The bank's fee and commission income grew by 3.27% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the first positive growth in this area since 2021, with expectations for continued growth throughout the year as macroeconomic conditions improve [2] - Investment income saw a significant increase, with net investment income rising by 303.0% year-on-year, despite a 212.6% negative change in fair value gains and losses [2] Group 2: Concerns - The net interest margin continued to narrow, measuring 1.39% in Q1 2025, down 14 basis points from Q4 2024, with asset yield under pressure [3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 174.44%, indicating a need for further strengthening of the provision buffer [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The bank announced a total dividend of 0.189 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 30.14%, reflecting a 1.73 percentage point increase from 2023, suggesting ongoing investment value [3]