本报记者 彭妍 对此，中信证券首席经济学家明明向《证券日报》记者表示，这展现了明显的季节性规律，主要是由季末银行考核等因素 引发的资金回表，以及季初资金重新回流理财市场所驱动的。这种"季末回落、季初回升"的模式在过去数年反复出现，预计在 未来仍将是影响银行理财规模变化的长期特征，而非短期偶发现象。 明明进一步表示，11月份理财规模增长的核心因素有两方面：一是季节性规律，历史同期11月份规模通常增加；二是持续 下行的存款利率，使得居民资产配置向收益相对更具吸引力的银行理财倾斜。此外，理财公司通过优化资产配置稳定了产品净 值，增强了投资者信心。 展望后续趋势，明明表示，12月份虽受季末银行考核影响可能出现阶段性回调，但在估值整改窗口期前期的浮盈释放等因 素支撑下，整体规模有望保持稳定；预计年末数天可能出现约8000亿元的短期回撤，明年年初将快速修复。2026年，在存款利 率持续下行的大背景下，居民资产向理财迁移的趋势预计将延续，推动理财规模整体呈现稳步增长态势，全年存续规模有望突 破35万亿元。 需要注意的是，尽管规模增长动力充足，但银行理财收益率或面临压力。上海金融与法律研究院研究员杨海平对《证券日 报》记者表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The scale of bank wealth management products has decreased significantly, with a drop of over 900 billion yuan in June, influenced by factors such as the mid-year assessment and the return of wealth management products to the balance sheet [1][5]. Group 1: Market Scale and Trends - As of the end of June, the total scale of the top 14 bank wealth management companies reached 22.96 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 950 billion yuan from the end of May, resulting in a year-to-date net increase of about 530 billion yuan [2][5]. - The overall market scale of wealth management products declined to 31 trillion yuan by the end of June, down by about 300 billion yuan from the previous month [2]. - The cash management products experienced a significant outflow, decreasing by over 550 billion yuan month-on-month and approximately 800 billion yuan year-to-date [3][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The wealth management market is expected to see a rapid rebound in July, with projections indicating an increase of over 1 trillion yuan, consistent with historical seasonal trends [4][6]. - The structure of new inflows and fundamentals show positive signs, with a notable shift towards fixed-income products as cash management products continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Product Performance - Cash management products have shrunk by nearly 800 billion yuan this year, with a significant drop in June, where the annualized yield was only 1.43%, lower than that of pure bond products by about 1.18 percentage points [7][8]. - In June, the average yield for open-ended fixed-income wealth management products was 2.73%, up by 7 basis points, while closed-end products saw a decline in yield [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - There is an increasing trend of wealth management companies allocating more resources to equity assets, with many participating in index investments and IPOs [11][12]. - A total of 24 wealth management companies conducted extensive research on A-share listed companies, with a focus on sectors such as technology, healthcare, and defense [13]. Group 5: IPO Participation - Wealth management companies are increasingly engaging in IPO cornerstone investments and offline subscriptions for new stocks, enhancing their equity investment capabilities [14][16]. - Notable participation includes investments in both domestic and Hong Kong IPOs, with companies like Zhongyou Wealth Management and ICBC Wealth Management successfully acquiring significant shares [14][15].