中国数万亿存款去哪了？ 业内权威称"搬家说"不严谨 作者：亓宁 央行近日披露的10月金融统计数据报告显示，当月居民存款、企业存款分别减少1.34万亿元、1.09万亿 元，非银存款则增加了1.85万亿元。 不少市场人士认为，央行数据进一步表明，股市赚钱效应正持续带动居民存款搬家。但第一财经从多位 业内权威人士处了解到，"存款搬家"其实说法并不严谨，居民、企业和非银机构用存款买卖股票，只是 存款和股票在不同主体之间的重新分配，买股票的人存款减少、股票增多，卖股票的人股票减少、存款 增多，整体上看存款是大体不变的。当然，从大类资产市值的角度看，股市上涨，会带来股票总市值上 升，相对于存款的比重会有所提高。 一位理财行业人士对第一财经表示，相比更受关注的规模数据变化，"存款搬家"的机遇更多在结构层 面，"固收+"做得好不好、如何做好成为业内越来越关注的议题。 但当下，固收类产品仍是理财市场的主流，多数机构发力"固收+"采取的是"小步慢跑"策略。第一财经 记者采访了解到，今年以来，不少理财公司的"固收+"产品都取得了不错的成绩，少数产品年化收益率 可至5%，甚至7%以上。有券商测算，今年全市场"固收+"理财规模增长预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, led by General Manager Zhang Pengjun, emphasizes a long-term investment approach in retirement financial management, achieving significant growth in assets under management, surpassing 50 billion yuan this year [3][4]. Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - The company has successfully navigated a redemption wave, with its asset management scale increasing significantly to over 50 billion yuan [3]. - BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management focuses on a "small but beautiful" long-term strategy rather than blind scale growth, leveraging its strengths in multi-asset investment and retirement financial management [3][4]. - The firm aims to balance scale growth with investment management capabilities, intentionally slowing down growth to ensure alignment with product performance [7][8]. Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The bank wealth management market reached a record high of 32 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 this year, driven by customer trust and stable returns [4]. - Despite the growth of joint venture wealth management companies, challenges persist in a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating enhanced multi-asset management capabilities [5][6]. - The demand for wealth management products is shifting towards "deposit substitutes," reflecting a more conservative risk appetite among clients [5]. Group 3: Investment Management and Innovation - BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management is enhancing its investment management capabilities, focusing on fixed income and multi-asset strategies, while also improving system support through advanced technology platforms [8]. - The company is committed to integrating diverse cultural backgrounds to leverage resources from its shareholders, enhancing product and service capabilities [8]. Group 4: Retirement Financial Management - The company sees significant potential in retirement financial management, with its products performing well amid increasing awareness of retirement planning among residents [9]. - The total scale of China's pension system is projected to reach 15.66 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating vast development opportunities in the pension finance market [9]. - The recent expansion of retirement financial management pilot programs nationwide presents opportunities for product innovation and diversified investment strategies [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal execution case against Western Lide Fund, highlighting the company's response and its financial stability despite the ongoing legal issues [2][7]. Group 1: Legal Issues - On November 6, the Shanghai Financial Court initiated enforcement against Western Lide Fund, with an execution amount of approximately 291 million yuan [2]. - Western Lide Fund stated that the original case has a valid arbitration ruling from the Shanghai International Arbitration Center, which mandates the asset management plan managed by the company to bear the corresponding principal, interest, and arbitration fees [7]. - The company emphasized that the asset management plan's assets are independent of the management and custody assets, and any debts incurred should be borne by the plan's assets themselves [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Western Lide Fund achieved a compound annual growth rate of over 25% in non-monetary fund management scale, surpassing 116.6 billion yuan, placing it among the top 50 in the industry [7]. - The company manages 74 public funds, with bond funds making up the majority at 78.9 billion yuan, and money market funds totaling 23.6 billion yuan [8]. - Over the past decade, the bond market has shown a "bull long bear short" characteristic, with Western Lide Fund's fixed-income products achieving a performance of 91.87% over nearly ten years, ranking 1st out of 71 in the industry [9]. Group 3: Management Changes - Recently, the company underwent a management change, with General Manager He Yanping retiring and Chairman He Fang taking over the role [8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the relevance of fixed income products in a low interest rate environment and explores the correct approach to investing in these products [1] Group 1: Fixed Income Products - Fixed income products remain a topic of interest despite low interest rates, prompting a reevaluation of their investment strategies [1] - The article suggests that understanding the fundamental principles of fixed income investment is crucial for making informed decisions [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying the right methods to engage with fixed income products to maximize returns [1] - It highlights the significance of technical indicators, such as the MACD golden cross signal, which suggests potential upward trends in certain stocks [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant discrepancy between advertised annualized returns of bank wealth management products and their actual performance, with many products showing much lower returns after purchase [1][2][4] - The phenomenon of "yield assassins" is emerging, where banks manipulate the display of returns to attract investors while concealing the true performance metrics [1][4][5] Summary by Sections Yield Discrepancy - Many banks prominently display "annualized returns since inception," which are often inflated, while more relevant short-term performance metrics are buried in the app interface [1][2][3] - For instance, a product advertised with a 2.93% annualized return actually yielded only 1.05% over the last three months, indicating a significant gap between perceived and actual returns [2][3] Misleading Practices - Some banks engage in practices such as "ranking" new products by temporarily inflating their returns, which misleads investors about the sustainability of these yields [4][5] - The use of complex fee structures, such as "excess performance fees," further complicates the understanding of actual returns, often leading to unexpected deductions from investors' earnings [7][8] Market Trends - The bank wealth management market has grown to 31.6 trillion yuan, with expectations of continued growth despite declining yields in fixed-income products [9][12] - The average annualized return for fixed-income products has decreased, with the latest figures showing a drop to 2.30% for one-month products and 2.73% for three-month products [11][12] Product Types and Future Outlook - Fixed-income products dominate the wealth management landscape, comprising over 95% of the total product scale, but are facing pressure from declining interest rates [10][11] - The trend towards "fixed income plus" products, which combine stable fixed-income assets with higher-risk investments, is expected to grow, potentially becoming a key driver for future market expansion [12]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant discrepancy between advertised annualized returns of bank wealth management products and their actual performance, with many products showing much lower returns after purchase [1][2][4] - The phenomenon of "yield assassins" is emerging, where banks manipulate the display of returns to attract investors while concealing the true performance metrics [1][4][5] - There is a lack of standardized methods for displaying returns across different banks, leading to confusion among investors [2][3][7] Summary by Sections Yield Discrepancy - Many bank wealth management products advertise inflated annualized returns, such as "since inception annualized return," while actual returns over recent months are significantly lower, often below 2% [1][2] - For example, a product advertised with a 2.2% annualized return had an actual return of only 1.94% over the last three months [2] Misleading Display Practices - Banks often highlight high historical returns while burying more relevant short-term performance data deeper in their apps, making it difficult for investors to access accurate information [3][4] - The practice of "ranking" new products by temporarily inflating their returns using funds from older products has been noted, leading to a sharp decline in returns shortly after purchase [4][5] Complex Fee Structures - Many products have complicated fee structures, such as "excess performance fees," which are not clearly communicated to investors, leading to unexpected costs [7][8] - The calculation of these fees is often convoluted, further complicating investor understanding [8] Market Trends - The bank wealth management market has grown to 31.6 trillion yuan, with expectations of continued growth despite declining yields [9][12] - Fixed-income products dominate the market, comprising over 95% of total wealth management product volume, but their yields have been declining due to lower interest rates [10][11] - The trend towards "fixed income plus" products is expected to continue, as they offer better potential returns in a low-interest environment [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The overall scale of private asset management by securities firms in China has shown a stable recovery trend in 2023, reaching a record high of 5.8 trillion yuan by the end of August, marking a 6.03% increase from the end of last year [1] Group 1: Asset Management Scale - As of the end of August, the scale of actively managed collective asset management plans reached 3.28 trillion yuan, a growth of 13.16% compared to the end of last year [1] - The scale of single asset management plans was 2.52 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2% from the end of last year [1] - The proportion of collective asset management plans in the total scale of private asset management increased from 52.97% at the end of last year to 56.53% by the end of August, indicating a shift towards active management [1] Group 2: Product Structure - Fixed income products dominate the private asset management offerings, with a scale of 4.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 82.41% of the total, and showing a steady increase of 5.6% from the end of last year [1] - Equity products and futures/derivatives products had scales of 370.81 billion yuan and 34.601 billion yuan, respectively, with equity products declining by 14.62% and futures/derivatives products increasing by 4.41% [1] Group 3: Mixed Products Growth - The scale of mixed products has significantly increased, reaching 613.813 billion yuan by the end of August, a growth of 29.08% from the end of last year [2] - The number of mixed products approved for registration from June to August showed a strong upward trend, with the proportion of mixed products in total approvals rising from 51.56% in June to 56.94% in August [2] - Mixed products are favored by investors due to their broad investment scope and ability to balance risk and return effectively [2] Group 4: Revenue Trends - In the first three quarters, 42 A-share listed securities firms achieved a total net income of 33.251 billion yuan from asset management fees, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.43% [2] - The net income from asset management fees for six firms exceeded 1 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 8.703 billion yuan [3] - Only 14 out of the 42 listed firms saw a year-on-year increase in asset management fee income, while 14 firms experienced a decline exceeding 20% [3]

Core Insights - The overall scale of bank wealth management products continues to grow, reaching a historical high of 33.18 trillion yuan by the end of October, despite experiencing two rounds of net value declines this year [1][2][4] - The shift from a "savings" to an "investment" mindset among residents is accelerating, driven by the "price comparison effect" as deposit rates decline and wealth management products offer relatively higher returns [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Market Scale and Growth - As of the end of October, the bank wealth management market reached 33.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan from the previous month and 3.23 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, slightly above the average level of the past three years [2][4] - The growth in scale is attributed to the ongoing decline in deposit rates, prompting customers to seek alternative investment opportunities [3][5] Performance of Wealth Management Products - Wealth management product returns have been under pressure, showing a quarterly decline: 2,060 billion yuan in Q1, 1,836 billion yuan in Q2, and 1,792 billion yuan in Q3 [4] - The average annualized return for closed-end and open-end fixed-income products in Q3 was 2.73% and 2.54%, respectively, both below the average performance benchmark [4] Future Outlook - The wealth management scale is expected to continue growing, with projections of an increase of 300 to 400 billion yuan in November, supported by the release of funds from maturing fixed deposits and the relative return advantage of fixed-income products [6][7] - The monetary policy environment is favorable for growth, with the central bank's actions expected to enhance liquidity and improve the ability of wealth management companies to manage redemptions and volatility [7] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a downward trend in returns, with expectations of a gradual decline in the yield of fixed-income products due to a persistently accommodative monetary policy [8]

Core Insights - The issuance of wealth management products has steadily increased, with 32 wealth management companies issuing 6,361 net value-based products in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 40% compared to Q3 2024 [1][2] - The total market size of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [1] - There is a notable shift towards higher liquidity and shorter-term products, with a significant increase in the issuance of mixed and equity products [1][4] Product Issuance - In Q3 2025, the issuance of wealth management products saw a 42.21% increase year-on-year, with 6,361 products compared to 4,473 in Q3 2024 [2] - The proportion of fixed-income products decreased to 97.89%, while mixed and equity products saw an increase, with 106 mixed products and 11 equity products issued [2] - Major contributors to product issuance include Huaxia Wealth Management, with 478 products, and other leading firms like Ping An and Xingyin [2] Product Structure - Publicly offered products accounted for 95.6% of total issuance, while privately offered products made up 4.4% [3] - The proportion of closed-end net value products fell below 60% to 57.7%, a decrease of 10.77 percentage points year-on-year, while open-end products rose to over 40% [3] - Short-term products (less than 1 month) now account for 22.6%, an increase of 3.76 percentage points from the previous year [3] Pricing Trends - The performance benchmark for bank wealth management products has been on a downward trend since 2024, driven by lower underlying asset yields and stricter regulations [5] - The average pricing for products across various terms has generally declined, with products under 1 month dropping to 1.88% by June 2025 [6] Fundraising Performance - The overall fundraising scale for newly issued products in Q3 2025 was 946.59 billion yuan, with an average fundraising size of 258 million yuan, down 8.83% from the previous year [7] - The most successful product in terms of fundraising was "Anying Xiang Fixed Income Stable Profit No. 14," which raised over 100 billion yuan [7] - The top products in fundraising were primarily low to medium risk, closed-end, and fixed-income products, indicating a conservative investment approach among investors [7]

Core Insights - As of the end of September, the scale of bank wealth management has exceeded 32 trillion yuan, reaching 32.1 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase from 30.67 trillion yuan at the end of June, with a growth of approximately 1.4 trillion yuan in the third quarter [1][2][4] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The bank wealth management scale saw an unexpected increase of 2 trillion yuan in July, but experienced a decline of 850 billion yuan in September due to seasonal factors and increased cash demand before the holidays [2][3][4] - Despite the decline in September, the scale has grown by about 8.5% compared to September 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth trend [4] Group 2: Product Types and Trends - Fixed-income products dominate the bank wealth management market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, as they align with the risk tolerance of most investors [4] - The average annualized yield of closed-end fixed-income wealth management products has decreased, with a near 1-month yield of 2.30% and a near 3-month yield of 2.73% as of the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: "Fixed Income Plus" Products - There is a growing interest in "Fixed Income Plus" products, which combine stable fixed-income assets with riskier assets to enhance returns, as investors seek better yields in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7] - The "Fixed Income Plus" product series launched by banks has seen significant growth, with one product surpassing 300 billion yuan in scale [6][7] - The overall scale of "Fixed Income Plus" products is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan this year, contributing to the anticipated total wealth management scale of over 33.5 trillion yuan [7]