证券研究报告 | 2025年09月02日 建设银行（601939.SH）2025 年半年报点评 优于大市 规模稳步扩张，营收利润增速均回升 净息差持续收窄，净利息收入同比下降。公司上半年披露的净息差 1.40%， 较去年全年下降 11bps，主要是资产端收益率下行压力较大。资产端，上半 年生息资产平均收益率同比下滑 45bps 至 2.82%，其中贷款收益率同比下降 59bps 至 2.96%。负债端，上半年计息负债平均成本率同比下降 34bps 至 1.58%，其中存款成本率同比下降 32bps 至 1.40%。受息差收窄拖累等因素影 响，公司上半年净利息收入 2867.09 亿元，同比下降 3.16%，增速较一季度 提升 2.05pct，较去年全年提升 1.27pct。 营收利润增速均回升。公司上半年分别实现营收、归母净利润 3942.73 亿元、 1620.76 亿元，分别同比增长 2.15%、下降 1.37%，增速较一季度分别回升 7.56pct、2.62pct。公司上半年年化加权平均 ROE 为 10.08%，同比下降 0.74pct。从业绩增长归因来看，主要是公司资产规模扩张及其他非息收入 对业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Bank reported a decline in net profit and total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in its financial performance [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2025 was 69.385 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.04% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.87 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total operating revenue was 35.676 billion yuan, a decline of 7.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.774 billion yuan, down 1.58% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin improved to 35.84%, an increase of 6.83% year-on-year [1]. - Earnings per share decreased to 1.18 yuan, down 4.07% year-on-year [1]. - Operating cash flow per share increased significantly by 53.61% to 9.0 yuan [1]. Asset and Liability Changes - Derivative financial assets decreased by 47.15% due to market volatility affecting business scale [2]. - Financial assets purchased under resale agreements increased by 35% due to a rise in the scale of purchased bonds and notes [2]. - Other assets surged by 138.65% due to an increase in receivable clearing funds [2]. - Borrowings from the central bank rose by 148.78% based on the end-of-period RMB position [2]. - Derivative financial liabilities fell by 49.86% due to market fluctuations [2]. - Tax liabilities decreased by 49.92% following the corporate income tax reconciliation for 2024 [2]. Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 53.6% due to higher net cash inflows from borrowing from the central bank [6]. - Net cash flow from investing activities rose by 37.71% due to increased cash flow from debt investments [6]. - Net cash flow from financing activities decreased by 12.09% due to reduced cash flow from issuing and repaying interbank certificates of deposit [7]. Market Position and Analyst Expectations - The company has a healthy cash asset position, indicating strong solvency [9]. - The estimated dividend yield for the company is 4.92% [10]. - Analysts expect the company's performance in 2025 to reach 43.738 billion yuan, with an average earnings per share of 2.18 yuan [11]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Ping An Bank is the Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a scale of 11.94 billion yuan and a recent net value of 0.8523 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 shows stable growth, with a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.8 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 374% as of the end of Q2 2025, indicating a solid financial position [2] - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio, which supports stable future net profit growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 37.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) for H1 2025 is 13.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Asset Quality - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets reached 3.47 trillion yuan, growing by 11.0% year-to-date and 14.4% year-on-year [1] - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with the provision coverage ratio at 374%, reflecting a strong asset quality [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits of 29.2 billion yuan, 31.6 billion yuan, and 34.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 8.4%, and 7.8% [3][4] - The estimated diluted EPS for 2025 is 4.27 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.4x and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.78x [3][4]

Core Insights - Independent Bank Corp. reported $181.8 million in revenue for Q2 2025, a year-over-year increase of 6.8% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.25, compared to $1.21 a year ago, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.20 by 4.17% [1] - The revenue surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $179.81 million, resulting in a surprise of +1.11% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Efficiency Ratio stood at 59.8%, slightly above the three-analyst average estimate of 59.6% [4] - Net interest margin (FTE) was reported at 3.4%, compared to the average estimate of 3.3% [4] - Total interest-earning assets averaged $17.67 billion, below the estimated $17.77 billion [4] - Total Non-Interest Income reached $34.31 million, exceeding the average estimate of $32.97 million [4] - Net Interest Income was $147.5 million, slightly above the estimated $146.94 million [4] - Interchange and ATM fees totaled $5 million, surpassing the average estimate of $4.76 million [4] - Deposit account fees were reported at $7.14 million, compared to the average estimate of $6.76 million [4] - Mortgage banking income was $1.07 million, exceeding the average estimate of $0.93 million [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Independent Bank Corp. returned +4.8% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank has shown significant growth in total assets and profitability, positioning itself as a leading city commercial bank in China, with a focus on maintaining high asset quality and low non-performing loan ratios [1][2][4][15]. Group 1: Growth and Scale - As of the end of 2024, Chengdu Bank's total assets reached 1.25 trillion yuan, marking a 14.56% increase from the end of 2023, ranking it seventh among city commercial banks listed on A-shares [2]. - The bank's operating income for 2024 was 229.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 128.58 billion yuan, up 10.17% year-on-year [4][6]. Group 2: Profitability and Income Sources - Chengdu Bank's net interest margin stood at 1.66% in 2024, a decrease of 15 basis points from the previous year, placing it at a medium level among city commercial banks [11]. - Despite the decline in net interest margin, net interest income reached 184.61 billion yuan, a 4.57% increase year-on-year, accounting for over 80% of the bank's operating income [10][14]. - Investment net income was 36.24 billion yuan, growing by 14.18% year-on-year, contributing 15.77% to the total operating income [14]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Chengdu Bank maintained a non-performing loan ratio of only 0.66% at the end of 2024, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous year, making it one of the banks with the lowest non-performing loan ratios in the A-share market [15][17]. - The bank's non-performing loan coverage ratio was 479.29%, indicating strong asset quality, although it did not retain the top position among A-share listed banks [15]. - The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans was 0.63%, while personal loans had a slightly higher ratio of 0.78%, both remaining at acceptable levels [18].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Bank has shown a recovery in operating income and net profit growth in 2024, primarily driven by investment income, despite challenges in net interest income and asset quality [4][9]. Group 1: Business Overview - Shanghai Bank was established in 1996 and was renamed in 1998, with its shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016 [1]. - The bank has expanded its operations beyond Shanghai to regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Central and Western China [1]. - As of the end of 2024, the loan balance in Shanghai accounted for 48.02% of the total, with the Yangtze River Delta (excluding Shanghai) at 30.25% and the Pearl River Delta at 12.07% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By the end of 2024, Shanghai Bank's total assets reached 3.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57% [4]. - The bank achieved operating income of 52.986 billion yuan, up 4.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.560 billion yuan, an increase of 4.50% [4]. - Despite the growth, the operating income in 2024 was still below the 53.112 billion yuan recorded in 2021 [4]. Group 3: Income Structure - The growth in operating income and profit in 2024 was mainly supported by a significant increase in investment income, which reached 13.166 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year growth of 94.42% [9]. - Since 2021, net interest income and net fee and commission income have both experienced negative growth [9]. Group 4: Interest Margin and Income - In 2024, Shanghai Bank's net interest margin was 1.17%, a decrease of 17 basis points from 2023, which is relatively low compared to other major city commercial banks [11]. - The bank's interest income for 2024 was 32.486 billion yuan, accounting for 61.31% of operating income, which is a decline of 8.23 percentage points from 2023 [11]. Group 5: Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, Shanghai Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.18%, a decrease of 3 basis points from the end of 2023, with a provision coverage ratio of 269.81%, down 2.85 percentage points [15]. - The proportion of special mention loans was 2.06%, and the overdue loan ratio was 1.72%, both higher than the NPL ratio, indicating ongoing asset quality pressure [17]. - The bank's loan structure is predominantly corporate loans, which helps in controlling asset quality, as the corporate loan NPL ratio was 1.37%, lower than the personal loan NPL ratio of 1.14% [20][18].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of Chinese banks in Q1 2025, highlighting the differences in profitability among state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and regional banks. State-owned banks and joint-stock banks experienced a decline in net profit by 1.9% and 2.0% respectively, while regional banks saw a growth of 5.1% due to favorable economic conditions in their operating areas [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profitability Trends**: The overall net profit of Chinese banks decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, primarily due to weak credit demand, continuous pressure on interest margins, and rising credit risks in retail loans [3][6]. - **Credit Demand and Asset Growth**: Joint-stock banks faced weak credit demand, particularly in personal loans, leading to a slowdown in credit and asset growth. In contrast, regional banks benefited from higher asset growth rates of around 13% due to operating in economically favorable regions [8][9]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income for listed banks showed a negative growth of 3.2%, with joint-stock banks experiencing a significant decline of 18%. This was largely attributed to reduced floating profits from the bond market [16]. - **Asset Quality**: Overall asset quality remained stable, but there was an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) in credit cards and consumer loans, which could hinder profit growth due to increased provisioning needs [18][20]. - **Provision Coverage**: The provision coverage ratio for listed banks remained stable at around 240%, indicating a buffer for potential losses. However, if retail asset quality deteriorates, the need for additional provisions could impact profitability [19][22]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Regional Bank Performance**: Regional banks showed resilience with stable net interest income around 7%, benefiting from reduced deposit pressure as deposits shifted from large banks to smaller ones [10][14]. - **Market Conditions**: The banks' performance is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including trade policies and monetary policy adjustments, which could affect overall profitability in 2025 [6][22]. - **招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) Specifics**: Despite a 3% decline in revenue and a 2% drop in profit, 招商银行 maintained a high provision coverage ratio of 410%, indicating strong risk management capabilities. The bank's net interest margin was 1.91%, the highest among national banks, reflecting effective cost control [23][27][28]. - **渣打银行 (Standard Chartered Bank) Performance**: 渣打银行 reported an 8% increase in net profit and a 5% increase in revenue, with strong growth in non-interest income driven by wealth management and trading services, despite an increase in credit impairment charges [32][38]. - **汇丰银行 (HSBC) Strategy**: HSBC maintained a diversified income source and a robust balance sheet, allowing it to navigate uncertainties without adjusting its long-term performance guidance [36][38]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the banking industry's current state and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [7]. Core Insights - Agricultural Bank reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 186.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 0.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.9 billion RMB, up 2.20% year-over-year [1][2]. - Non-interest income showed significant growth, with a 24.7% year-over-year increase, contributing 46.1 billion RMB to total revenue [2]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.28%, with a provision coverage ratio of 298% [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, net interest income was 140.6 billion RMB, down 2.74% year-over-year, accounting for 75.3% of total revenue [2]. - The bank's total interest-earning assets reached 43.92 trillion RMB, growing 6.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.0% increase in loans and a 12.7% increase in financial investments [3]. - The bank's total liabilities were 40.96 trillion RMB, reflecting an 8.0% year-over-year increase, with deposits growing by 3.0% [3]. Capital Adequacy - As of Q1 2025, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 11.23%, down 19 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 2.25%, 4.12%, and 5.08%, respectively [5]. - The projected book value per share (BPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 7.95, 8.50, and 8.99 RMB, respectively [5].

1995 年国务院下发《关于组建城市合作银行的通知》。 1996 年，在原南京 39 家城市信用合作社 及信用联社的基础上成立了南京城市合作银行。 1998 年 5 月更名为南京市商业银行， 2001 年和 2005 年分别引入 国际金融公司 和 法国巴黎银行 入股， 2006 年更名为南京银行，并于 2007 年在上海证券交 易所上市，股票代码是 601009 。 截至目前，南京银行在江苏下辖 13 个地级市均设有分行， 2023 年实现江苏省县域网点全覆盖 。 南京银行还在 北京、上海和杭州 各有 1 家异地分行。此外南京银行还拥有 南银理财有限责任公司 100% 股份， 鑫元基金管理有限公司 80% 股权， 南银法巴消费金融有限公司 56% 股份，并入股 江苏金 融租赁有限公司 （ 21.09% ）、 日照银行 （ 20% ）两家公司，还在江苏宜兴、昆山和安徽芜湖持股 3 家村镇银行。 一、规模增速强劲，债券银行特色明显 | 单位:亿元 | 总资产 | | 营业收入 | | 归母净和润 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金额 | 増速 ...

与自身相比，江苏银行 总资产增速创近五年新高 ，营业收入和归母净利润增速虽不是近五年最 高，但 依然处于 10% 左右高速增长 。 江苏银行是 2007 年 1 月份在江苏省内无锡、苏州、常州、南通、淮安、徐州、镇江、扬州、盐城 和连云港 10 市的城商行合并重组而成的城市商业银行（基本把除南京以外的城市商业银行进行了合 并，南京有自己的上市城商行——南京银行）。 2016 年 8 月 2 日在上交所上市（ 600919 ）， 2020 年 入选全国 9 家系统重要性银行之一。 江苏银行下辖 17 家分行 （江苏省内 13 个地级市均设有一级分行） 和 苏银金融租赁股份有限公司 、 苏银理财有限责任公司 、 苏银凯基消费金融有限公司、江苏丹阳苏银村镇银行有限责任公司 4 家子 公司 。江苏银行业务 实现江苏省内县域全覆盖， 并拓展到 长三角 （设有上海分行和杭州分行） 、珠 三角 （设有深圳分行）和 环渤海 （设有北京分行） 三大经济圈。 但江苏地区仍是其最大的经营地 区。 2024 年末江苏地区贷款余额占全部贷款余额的 86.13% 。 | 地区 | 2024年末 | | 2023年末 | | | --- ...