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碳酸锂日评:国内碳酸锂7月供给预期偏松,国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比增加-20250709
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in July 2025 is expected to be relatively loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has increased compared to the previous week. The report suggests that investors should temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Prices**: On July 8, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 65,100 yuan/ton, 64,240 yuan/ton, 63,740 yuan/ton, and 63,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases of 1,500 yuan/ton, 320 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 545,405 lots, an increase of 332,101 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 338,034 lots, an increase of 15,500 lots [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,655 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts increased by 1,180 yuan/ton to 860 yuan/ton [1]. Lithium Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite increased to varying degrees. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 658 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained, domestic) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Some production enterprises have maintenance plans, which may affect production. For example, some lithium carbonate production enterprises in Jiangxi will be under maintenance for 15 - 20 days, potentially affecting 1,000 tons of production. However, some new production capacities are expected to be put into operation, such as the 1,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity of Guangdong Haizhou Lithium Battery may be put into production in July 2025 [2]. - **Demand**: The production volume of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate materials in China in July may increase month - on - month. For example, the first - phase 25,000 - ton project of Hubei Ruipai New Energy Technology may be commissioned at the end of June and reach full production by the end of the year [3][4]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and watch, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [4].