更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 化工:Q4 业绩前瞻及多品种更新推荐 20260104 摘要 Q&A 度,无论是地产链还是消费链,都有望得到国家内需刺激政策的支持。 目前化工板块投资策略是什么? 我们建议优先配置产品丰富的大型龙头企业,如恒力石化、荣盛石化,以及煤化 工龙头华鲁恒升。同时,应关注具有高弹性的标的,如聚酯产业链中的 PX、PTA、 涤纶长丝、短纤和聚酯薄膜等。此外,氨纶和制冷剂等反内卷成功的板块也值得 关注。短期来看,由于四季度业绩仍在修复过程中,需要耐心等待真正弹性显现, 这可能要到 2025年二季度之后。因此,现在正是布局这些标的的重要时机。 对于油价走势及其对化工行业影响有何看法? 2026 年化工板块的整体展望如何? 从 2024年 7月开始,化工板块进入了一个明确的周期拐点。我们认为这一波行 情是一个两年内的大周期起点,甚至可以说 2026 年将是化工行业的一个大年。 尽管目前基本面和需求尚未完全恢复,但供给端已经出现了显著变化。供给端的 新建产能和投产增速大幅下降,反内卷效应明显,这为化工股票的估值修复和景 气上行提供了基础。在过去半年中,需求端变化不大,但 ...

| 活动过程中所使用的 | 无 | | --- | --- | | 演示文稿、提供的文 | | | 档等附件（如有，可 | | | 作为附件） | | 编号：2025-009 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 活动参与人员 | 开源证券：李思佳 | | 时间 | 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 形式 | 线上电话会 | | 上市公司接待人员 | 董事会秘书、证券事务代表 | | | 1、简要介绍一下公司基本情况？ | | | 公司主要产品为工业雷管、炸药、起爆具，广泛应用 | | | 于矿山开采、交通建设、水利水电、建筑拆除、石油勘探、 | | | 国防工程等领域。报告期内，公司拥有 1 个雷管生产基地、 | | | 6 个炸药生产基地，产品种类齐全，能够极大满足市场多 | | | 样化需求。 | | | 公司全资子公司壶化爆破，具有工程爆破和矿山工程 | | | 施工总承包双一 ...

证券代码：003002 证券简称：壶化股份 山西壶化集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-008 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 活动参与人员 | 山西证券：李旋坤 | | 时间 | 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 形式 | 线上电话会 | | 上市公司接待人员 | 董事会秘书、证券事务代表 | | | 1、简要介绍下公司基本情况？ | | | 公司主要产品为工业雷管、炸药、起爆具，广泛应用 | | | 于矿山开采、交通建设、水利水电、建筑拆除、石油勘探、 | | | 国防工程等领域。报告期内，公司拥有 1 个雷管生产基地、 | | | 6 个炸药生产基地，产品种类齐全，能够极大满足市场多 | | | 样化需求。 | | | 公司全资子公司壶化爆破，具有工程爆破和矿山工程 | | | 施工总承包双一级资质，长期服务于矿产资源开采，公路、 | | | ...

南方财经12月25日电，高争民爆（002827.SZ）公告，预计2026年度与中金新联、西藏保利发生日常关 联交易总额9,800万元。其中，向中金新联销售管类、索类产品及提供运输服务，预计金额1,500万元； 向西藏保利采购炸药及接受运输服务，预计金额8,300万元。截至2025年11月30日，对中金新联实际销 售1,041.04万元，对西藏保利采购5,564.36万元。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月24日，壶化股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司是国家民用爆破器材定点 生产企业，主要生产雷管、炸药、起爆具等系列产品，具备完整的民爆器材研发、生产、销售、进出口 和爆破工程一体化服务能力。 （编辑 楚丽君） ...

民爆用品 壶化股份（003002.SZ） 买入-B(首次) 山西民爆龙头，西部项目引领发展新征程 2025 年 12 月 1 日 公司研究/深度分析 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： 一体化大型民爆企业，产能位居行业前列。公司是一家集民用爆破器材 研发、生产、销售、进出口、爆破服务于一体的大型民爆企业。拥有从民爆 上游原材料研发生产，到下游专业爆破服务的完整产业链条，已形成"民爆、 出口、爆破、军工"四大产业版块。拥有数码电子雷管产能 5880 万发、工业 炸药产能共计 11.4 万吨、工业雷管产能 2000 万发、起爆具产能 2300 吨。 市场数据：2025 年 11 月 28 日 经营稳中有增，财务持续稳健。2020-2024 年，公司收入从 5.56 亿元增 至 11.01 亿元，CAGR 为 25.58%；归母净利润由 0.97 亿元增至 1.4 亿元，CAGR 为 13.01%。2024 年在国内经济景气度低迷、民爆行业缩量下行的严峻形势下， 收入、利润均保持在健康合理的空间。2025 上半年，公司出口市场和省外市 场拓展增幅较大，主营产品雷管、炸药、起爆具产销量均显著提升。前三季 度公司实现营业收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expanding its operations in Peru and Zambia, which will enhance its competitiveness in the mining services and civil explosives sectors in these regions [1] Group 1: Expansion Plans - The company's explosives factory in Peru is currently in the expansion phase [1] - The explosives factory in Zambia is under construction [1] - Completion of these projects is expected to significantly improve the company's operational synergy in Peru, Zambia, and surrounding areas [1] Group 2: Market Competitiveness - The expansion and construction efforts will further enhance the company's overall competitiveness in overseas markets [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 34.6% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 380 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 13.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 160 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year and 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The decline in revenue from the civil explosives segment is primarily due to reduced coal mine operating rates in Xinjiang, leading to weakened demand for civil explosives. The sales of explosives and detonators in Q3 were 17,000 tons and 203,800 units, down 24.7% and 33.1% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The chemical segment remains under pressure, with major chemical products still in a price decline. The average market prices for ammonium nitrate and urea decreased by 13.2% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively [12] - The company is steadily advancing capacity injection, having acquired 51% stakes in two companies, adding a total of 71,000 tons/year of industrial explosive capacity. The total capacity now stands at 190,500 tons/year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, down 34.6% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 380 million yuan, a decrease of 33.8% year-on-year [2][5] - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 160 million yuan, down 23.3% year-on-year and 3.8% quarter-on-quarter [2][5] Business Segments - The civil explosives segment saw a revenue decline due to lower coal mine operating rates in Xinjiang, with sales of explosives and detonators dropping significantly [12] - The chemical segment continues to face pricing pressures, with key products experiencing year-on-year price declines [12] Capacity Expansion - The company has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its production capacity, with a total of 71,000 tons/year added through recent acquisitions, bringing the total capacity to 190,500 tons/year [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 4.183 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 394 million yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company has officially begun internal and external growth initiatives, with significant increases in explosive sales volume and capacity expansion through acquisitions [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for civil explosives in Xinjiang, with a notable increase in ammonium nitrate production capacity [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 6.582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.9% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 545 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 18.5% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.51 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 [5] - The company anticipates significant growth in explosive production capacity, from 190,500 tons currently to 295,500 tons in three years and 725,500 tons in five years [6]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The GDP growth for Q3 is reported at 4.8%, matching expectations but down from the previous value of 5.2% [10] - Retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, slightly below the expected 3.1% and down from 3.4% in the previous month [10] - Fixed asset investment for the cumulative year is down 0.5%, against an expectation of 0% and a previous value of 0.5% [10] - Industrial value-added for September increased by 6.5%, surpassing the expected 5.2% and matching the previous month's value [10] Group 2: Key Economic Drivers - Service consumption and external demand improvements, along with a phase of inventory replenishment and strong construction completions, supported high economic growth in Q3 [10] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP remained stable at 2.7 percentage points, indicating resilience in service consumption [10] - The construction sector saw a significant increase in completions, with a 22.9 percentage point rise in September, boosting property sales [10] Group 3: Industry Insights - The report highlights that the industrial production growth was primarily driven by specific sectors, notably the automotive industry, which saw a 16% increase in value-added [10] - Retail sales showed a mixed performance, with limited growth in high-value items like automobiles and communication equipment, while overall service consumption remained robust [10] - The real estate sector is experiencing a recovery in sales, supported by policies aimed at ensuring project completions and sales of existing homes [10] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Zijin Mining (601899) reported a record high performance in Q3 2025, with significant contributions from gold mining [12] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 512.0 billion, 631.9 billion, and 721.5 billion respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous forecasts [12] - The anticipated rise in copper and gold prices, along with the company's leading position in the industry, is expected to drive performance growth [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on new industries such as marine economy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy, which may become key areas of investment [11] - The report suggests that the economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" will require maintaining an average growth rate of around 4.4% to meet the 2035 modernization goals [11] - The emphasis on high-quality development, institutional reform, and industrial upgrading is expected to be central to the new five-year planning [11]