Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate between 74,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention on the continuous game between supply increment and demand resilience. The current market is in an upward phase after breaking through the oscillation range, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the 4.32% increase in supply - side capacity utilization rate and the high - growth in demand - side new energy vehicle sales. Inventory depletion supports the price to break through the upper limit of the original oscillation range, but the significant decline in open interest indicates that funds are cautious about continuous growth [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The weekly average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.41% to 75,750 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed to 50 yuan/ton (a 90.2% week - on - week decrease). The main futures contract rose 4.07% to 75,700 yuan/ton, with open interest dropping 28.35% to 159,000 lots. The prices of other lithium salts also showed different degrees of increase, such as the price of electric - carbon lithium hydroxide increasing by 0.81% - 0.76% [2][4] - **Price Premium and Discount Changes**: For raw materials, the premium and discount of mica - based materials increased by 100, and that of salt - lake and recycled materials increased by 200; for enterprises, the premium and discount of Ganfeng Lithium decreased by 100, and that of Jiuling Lithium decreased by 200 [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate reached 74.39% (a 4.32% week - on - week increase), and the weekly output of 20,635 tons hit a record high [2] - **Production by Region and Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level, but downstream procurement weakened after the holiday [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The port inventory of lithium ore decreased by 5.17% to 55,000 tons week - on - week, and the import cost support still exists [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The freight rates for bulk and container transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained stable [28] - **Lithium Carbonate Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 11,983 week - on - week, with significant decreases in some warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse [41] Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 74,294 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 244.19% week - on - week to 1,456 yuan/ton, with the profit margin significantly narrowing [2] Lithium - Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium - Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales - In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing price of LC2507 increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 63,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2509 remained flat at 63,300 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 62,300 and 60,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month to 57,600 and 62,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.2 yuan to 0.47 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - Driven by the difference in demand expectations, the center of the futures market has risen from 59,000 yuan to around 63,000 yuan. Last week, prices oscillated and adjusted, and the rigid procurement demand of downstream enterprises was gradually released, which confirmed the better - than - expected production schedule. During the rebound, the price of lithium ore increased rapidly, but the profit of the lithium salt processing link remained around the break - even point. Looking forward, domestic salt plants are in a state of both maintenance and resumption of production, and domestic production may still increase slightly month - on - month. However, the shipments from Chile and Argentina remain low, so the overall supply pressure is limited. The focus of market game may still be on the demand side. It is necessary to dynamically confirm the actual demand based on the trading situation in the spot market. In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads, and patiently wait for a more suitable time to arrange medium - term short positions [4][18][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chile's Shipment in June Remained Low, and the Market Competed for the Actual Quality of Apparent Demand - In June, Chile exported a total of 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, remaining flat month - on - month and decreasing by 26% year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 10,200 tons, increasing by 5.9% month - on - month and decreasing by 41% year - on - year. The shipments have remained low for two consecutive months, corresponding to the alleviation of China's import pressure in July - August. From January to June, Chile exported a total of 126,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export to China was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In terms of lithium sulfate, in June, Chile shipped 7,700 tons (3,800 tons of LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 2404%. From January to June, the total shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 44,700 tons (22,400 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 172% [3][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity of Mali Lithium. The first - phase annual production capacity of the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali is 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the production capacity is gradually being released [20] - Kodal Minerals signed a purchase agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 100,000 - 120,000 tons of lithium concentrate [20] - In June, Chile's export of lithium carbonate to China increased slightly. Considering the shipping cycle, the goods are expected to arrive at Chinese ports in July - August [21] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained the construction project construction permit for the Mamilcuo mining project [21] - Qinghai Huixin's 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project was successfully commissioned, and it can produce about 15 tons of qualified products per day [22] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quote of Lithium Concentrate Rebounded - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 629 US dollars/ton to 653 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% [13] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 showed different trends, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [2][12][13] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of slight increases or remained flat [13] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in May - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in May, and the installed capacity and production and sales of power batteries also showed certain trends [46][51][55]