Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is mediocre, the real estate sector is a drag, and policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some highlights. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices, domestic inventory increases, and LME zinc destocking slows down. Technically, the long - position atmosphere slightly weakens, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,680 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 227,385 lots, up 489 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,184 lots, down 222 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 70,890 tons, up 372 tons; the SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, up 400 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,490 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 117.04 US dollars/ton, down 59.51 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons; the global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons; zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons; the social zinc inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.63%, up 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.93%, down 0.05% [2] Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector payroll positions in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The US small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low in October due to deteriorating profitability and reduced economic optimism [2]

Core View - Positive factors: Declines in zinc inventories at LME and SHFE support market sentiment, and China's zinc consumption is growing steadily with relatively stable demand [3] - Negative factors: Global zinc consumption is polarized, with a significant decline in Western countries, and zinc inventories remain high due to the slowdown of the world economy [3] - Trading advisory view: Futures institutions have divergent views, with some bullish on short - term macro sentiment and others bearish due to weak fundamentals of increasing supply and decreasing demand [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Steel Coils - Market sentiment index (weekly) data from 2023/06 to 2025 is presented [5] - Weekly inventory, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] - Steel mill weekly production, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] Net Exports and Imports - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [8][9] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [8][10] Real Estate - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data from 2015/12 to 2023/12 is shown [11][12] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data from 2020/12 to 2024/12 is presented [13][14] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [16][17] Infrastructure - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data from 2020/06 to 2024/12 is provided [18][19] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends from 2023/06 to 2025 are presented [22] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [23][26] Futures Market - SHFE zinc main contract trading volume and open interest data from 2023/06 to 2025 are given [22] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium and discount data from 2023/03 to 2025/03 is presented [24] - LME term structure data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [27] Basis - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023/03 to 2025/03 are provided [28][29] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [30][31] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [33] - Zinc concentrate TC data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [34][35] Zinc Ingot - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [36] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [37] Production and Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [38] - LME zinc total inventory seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [38] - SHFE zinc inventory futures seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [39][40] Profits - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fee data from 2022/06 to 2024/12 is provided [36]