锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月25日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#娱 | 293500 | 291300 | 2200 | 0.76% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 600 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 294000 | 291800 | 2200 | 0.75% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 95.67 | 95.00 | 0.67 | 0.71% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 讲口密亏 | -15805.26 | -16328.60 | 523.34 | 3.21% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.92 | 7.91 | | | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 现 ...

| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

锌产业周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责 ...

有色金属周报-锌 短期承压，关注回调后的多单参与机会 2025年11月17日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国政府"停摆"暂告一段落，对市场情绪略有提 | | | | | 振，后续宏观方面关注政府重启后经济数据的公布。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。近期内外比价虽然有所修复，但进口锌矿 | | | | | 亏损仍在2,000元/金属吨左右，国内炼厂持续抢购国产锌 | | | | | 精矿，国内TC持续下滑，进口矿报价则较为混乱，部分贸 | | | | | 易商继续下调TC报价，预计矿紧格局或将持续到明年一季 | 消费不及预期，加之美联储鹰派 | | | | 度。最新一期的锌原料联合谈判小组（CZSPT）会议显示， | 发言打压降息预期，短期锌价或 | | | | 2026年一季度末前进口锌精矿采购美元加工费指导区间为 | 有所承压，前期空单可继续持有； | | | | 105美元（平均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity [1]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited, and the demand is not outstanding. The LME zinc price has an upper limit, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but the pressure is reduced compared with October. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the futures price oscillates downward. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, and the increase in demand orders. The futures should focus on the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions can be held. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to be strong [7]. - **Aluminum (Alumina)**: The alumina market oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: The electrolytic aluminum market oscillated at a high level yesterday. The macro - drive is strong, but the fundamental support is weak. It is expected to fluctuate between event - driven and weak fundamentals, with the main contract range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. It is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market continued to weaken yesterday. The supply pressure remains, the demand is not boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market was strong yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support, but the upward movement is mainly driven by funds. The main contract LC2601 is expected to oscillate and adjust. Pay attention to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the progress of large - factory复产 [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. With cost support and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products increased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper rising 0.27% to 86,765 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 0.97% to 3,367 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and in September, the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.40% to 22,660 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 4,958 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons. The zinc ingot social inventory in seven regions decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon were stable. The basis of some products increased, such as the basis of SI4210 increasing by 32.35% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price decreased by 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton. The silicon wafer price decreased significantly [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week, the silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and the polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price rose 0.66% to 287,700 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.13% to 14,819.94 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and in October, the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [7]. Aluminum (Alumina) - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong increased by 0.36% to 2,795 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to 2,320 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons [9]. Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum) - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.60% to 21,620 yuan/ton. The import loss increased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 13.57% to 24.68 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 0.08% to 121,300 yuan/ton. The futures import loss increased by 1.86% to 1,859 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and the import volume increased by 124.36% to 38,164 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils decreased. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% to 912 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose 1.92% to 82,300 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose 0.23% to 21,500 yuan/ton. The scrap - refined price difference of some products changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The price of copper rebounded slightly yesterday. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to demand - side marginal changes and overseas liquidity [1]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc futures oscillated at a high level yesterday. The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand side has no outstanding performance. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. The main contract is expected to trade between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilized, while the futures price oscillated downward. In November, the market still faces inventory accumulation pressure, but it is less than that in October. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilized, the component quotation increased, but the silicon wafer price dropped significantly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the spot support strength, platform company establishment, production control, and demand - side order increase [5]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The market sentiment has improved, and long positions should be held. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [7]. Alumina - The alumina futures oscillated at a low level yesterday. The supply pressure is high, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum futures continued to oscillate at a high level yesterday. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flow, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro - trends [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The market is mixed with long and short factors. The price is expected to oscillate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures continued to weaken yesterday. The policy and macro - drive are gradually weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures ran strongly yesterday. The short - term fundamentals provide support for the price, but the upward movement of the futures is mainly driven by funds. The futures may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the end - of - year resumption of large factories and downstream marginal changes [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market oscillated strongly yesterday. Supported by cost and with a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86,765 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis and other price - related indicators showed different changes [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,660 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, month - to - month spread, etc. also changed [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 52.38% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained at 52,200 yuan/kg, and the main futures contract dropped 3.33% to 51,930 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price was 287,700 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 11.10% [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The import profit and loss and month - to - month spread changed accordingly [9]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,300 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.68% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,750 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread increased by 24.66% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the previous day. The basis decreased by 858.62% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day. The month - to - month spread and other indicators changed [16]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. - **Zinc**: In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In October, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The export volume in October was 7.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.36% [4]. - **Polysilicon**: In October, the polysilicon production was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. In September, the import volume was 0.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.46% [5]. - **Tin**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, the SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [7]. - **Aluminum**: In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. - **Nickel**: In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 12.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70% [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.30% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [16]. Operating Rates - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper rod operating rate was 61.97%, up 1.54 percentage points from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The galvanizing operating rate was 55.13%, down 2.41 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 6.18 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Tin**: The SMM refined tin average operating rate in September was 43.60%, down 20.3 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum profile operating rate was 52.60%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the nickel report. - **Stainless Steel**: There is no significant information about the operating rate in the stainless - steel report. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the lithium carbonate operating rate was 56%, up 1.82 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.84%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory was 19.59 million tons, down 2.10% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 11.50 million tons, down 0.95% from the previous week [1]. - **Zinc**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 15.96 million tons, down 1.30% from the previous week; the LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Xinjiang inventory was 11.21 million tons, up 3.70% from the previous week; the social inventory was 55.20 million tons, down 1.08% from the previous week [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 million tons, down 0.77% from the previous week; the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52 million tons, down 7.45% from the previous week [5]. - **Tin**: The SHEF inventory was 5,992 tons, up 1.23% from the previous week; the social inventory was 7,033 tons, up 5.22% from the previous week [7]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons; the LME inventory was 54.5 million tons, down 0.37% from the previous day [9]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory was 37,187 tons, up 1.19% from the previous week; the social inventory was 49,133 tons, up 2.14% from the previous week [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 48.89 million tons, down 0.65% from the previous week; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 7.17 million tons, down 0.41% from the previous day [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, down 10.90% from the previous month; the downstream inventory was 53,291 tons, down 13.50% from the previous month [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 5.58 million tons, up 1.82% from the previous week [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - **Market Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Market Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Market Trend**: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Consumption**: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - **Market Trend**: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].

Group 1: Tin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The market sentiment has improved with the expected end of the US government shutdown, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. Long positions should be held. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. If the supply recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to remain strong [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.74% to 285,800 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium increased by 30% to 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Internal and External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 7.99% to -14,989.79 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.94 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2511 - 2512 spread decreasing by 20.83% to -580 [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory increased by 1.23% to 5,992 tons, and social inventory increased by 5.22% to 7,033 tons [1]. Group 2: Nickel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The macro situation exerts some pressure, and the fundamentals are mixed. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.25% to 121,200 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 20% to 3,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Futures Import Profit and Loss and Shanghai-London Ratio**: The futures import loss increased by 7.99% to -1,825 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-London ratio was 7.92 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -170 [4]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35,900 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.19% to 37,187 tons [4]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term stainless steel price is expected to weaken and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro expectations and steel mill supply [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference decreased by 9.88% to 365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread remained unchanged at -5 [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [6]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.65% to 48.89 million tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08% to 7.20 million tons [6]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the upward movement of the market is mainly driven by funds. The market may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand after the peak season and the release speed of upstream projects [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.44% to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) decreased by 88.49% to 290 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 780 to -1,700 [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total inventory in October decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons [9]. Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure in November, but it is less than in October. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the basis (SI4210 benchmark) decreased by 6.25% to -340 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 27.52% to -242 [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.36% to 7.02 million tons [10]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 3.70% to 11.21 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.08% to 55.20 million tons [10]. Group 6: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the recovery of component prices, the establishment of platform companies, and the increase in demand orders [12]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Futures Spread**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased by 0.95% to 53,720 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: Silicon wafer production decreased by 5.55% to 13.45 GW, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.26% to 2.70 million tons [12]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: Polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83% to 0.09 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.77% to 25.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.45% to 17.52 GW [12]. Group 7: Aluminum Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [15]. - **Aluminum**: Prices will fluctuate in the short term between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals, with the main contract reference range of 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipt flows, domestic inventory changes, and overseas macro trends [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.23% to 21,490 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 to -45 [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina production in October increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained unchanged at 62.70 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.36% to 54.7 million tons [15]. Group 8: Copper Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The copper price rebounded slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas liquidity. The main contract should focus on the support at 84,000 - 85,000 [17]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.60% to 86,232 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 15 to 55 [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 20 to 0 [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.57% to 62.97 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 2.10% to 19.59 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 1.06% to 13.59 million tons [17]. Group 9: Zinc Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The Shanghai zinc market oscillated at a high level. The supply pressure may be limited in the future, and the demand has not shown unexpected performance. The LME zinc price has upward pressure, while the Shanghai zinc may be stronger than the LME zinc, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.31% to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 to -55 [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.41% to 55.13% [20]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 15.96 million tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 3.5 million tons [20]. Group 10: Aluminum Alloy Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,100 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion [22]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 100 to -105 [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in October decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.95% to 55.84% [22]. - **Inventory**: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 1.82% to 5.58 million tons [22].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. After the reduction of interest rates and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes may be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot TC of copper ore stays at a low level. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper prices gradually moves up. The downstream demand for copper is resilient, and there are still many purchase orders after price declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not substantially relieved, the demand is weak, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. Pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea's bauxite, the impact of domestic environmental policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality in the short - term. The 21500 yuan/ton pressure level is crucial. If the inventory continues to accumulate, there is a risk of price correction to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the demand shows a mild recovery. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum, procurement costs, and inventory depletion [4]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. The supply of zinc is generally loose, but the subsequent production increase may be limited. The demand has no extraordinary performance, and the LME's low inventory causes squeezing risks, which support zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and relatively strong in the short - term, with the main reference range of 22300 - 23000 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement of supply within the year is limited. The demand is weak, and the contribution of new fields such as AI and photovoltaics is small. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Pay attention to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a weak and volatile state. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, while that from Indonesia is relatively loose. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for ternary materials has limited sustainability. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is running weakly. The supply pressure still exists, the demand is not significantly boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12500 - 13000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel supply [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is weakly volatile. Although the short - term fundamentals are strong, the trading logic has switched, and the news and capital drives are stronger. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 78000 - 82000 yuan [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.45% to 85335 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The premiums of other copper types also changed to varying degrees. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.20%, and the import profit and loss improved by 163.21 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons (-2.62%), and in September, the import volume increased by 7 million tons (26.50%). The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased by 7.67%, and the social inventory increased by 8.46% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.65% to 21300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different regions of alumina showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 170 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39%, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, and in September, the import volume increased by 13.57%. The开工 rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and its regional varieties decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.23% to 0.47%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions decreased. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 35 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The开工 rates of recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while that of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 21.34 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, and in September, the import volume decreased by 11.61%, while the export volume increased by 696.78%. The开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, while that of die - casting zinc alloy decreased slightly. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 1.10% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.44% to 281300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 12.16%. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 0.34%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the refined tin production decreased by 31.71%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.65%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.11% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.70% to 120950 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 6.68%. - **Electrolytic Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrolytic nickel decreased to varying degrees. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.48% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, with the Foshan price decreasing by 0.78%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 2.35%. - **Raw Material Price**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreasing by 0.22%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.55% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the prices of CIF battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea also decreased. The lithium - spodumene concentrate price decreased by 1.18%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2511 - 2601 increased by 260 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, the demand increased by 8.70%, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90%. The capacity increased by 0.80%, and the开工 rate increased by 1.82% [15].