锌产业周报 2026/2/27 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z002313 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. The upstream zinc mine imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are in production reduction at the end of the year. Domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement has intensified, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to continue to be restricted. The export window may close again. The downstream market is turning to the off - season, and overall demand is weak, with only some policy - supported areas like the automobile sector showing bright spots. The spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory has slightly increased, while LME zinc inventory is stable. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, with both long and short positions trading cautiously [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Shanghai zinc main contract closing price: 24,395 yuan/ton, down 490 yuan; 03 - 04 month contract spread: - 55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan - LME three - month zinc quote: 3,305.5 US dollars/ton, down 17.5 US dollars - Shanghai zinc total open interest: 194,134 lots, down 6,190 lots - Shanghai zinc top 20 net open interest: 2,011 lots, down 4 lots - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged - SHFE inventory: 65,154 tons, down 7,997 tons; LME inventory: 108,200 tons, down 775 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 0 zinc spot price: 24,580 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 zinc spot price: 24,160 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan - ZN main contract basis: 185 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan - LME zinc cash - 3 months spread: - 22.23 US dollars/ton, up 3.66 US dollars - Kunming 50% zinc concentrate ex - works price: 21,710 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan - Shanghai 85% - 86% crushed zinc price: 16,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - WBMS zinc supply - demand balance: - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons - ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance: - 7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons - ILZSG global zinc mine production: 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons - Domestic refined zinc production: 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons - Zinc ore imports: 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports: 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons - Refined zinc exports: 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons - Zinc social inventory: 111,300 tons, up 4,100 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized sheet production: 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; sales: 2.36 million tons - New housing construction area: 58.76996 million square meters; housing completion area: 60.34813 million square meters, down 20.8942 million square meters - Automobile production: 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles - Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6. Options Market - Zinc at - the - money call option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money put option implied volatility: 31.1%, down 5.39% - Zinc at - the - money option 20 - day historical volatility: 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility: 18.91%, up 0.02% [3] 3.7. Industry News - The People's Bank of China focuses on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. - The US ADP employment data in January was significantly lower than expected, with only 22,000 new jobs added, indicating weakening momentum in the labor market at the beginning of the year. The growth was entirely driven by the education and healthcare service sectors, while many key industries such as professional business services and manufacturing experienced employment contractions. - The US ISM services PMI index in January was 53.8, remaining at the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed down, employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [3]

锌产业周报 2026/2/2 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z002313 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：风险偏好调整，铜价高位下修 上周五晚沪铜主力跌4.75%至103190元，伦铜下跌至13050美元附近。 宏观中性偏空。特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席，降息预期减弱，加之贵金属回调幅度扩大，带动有色板块普遍下跌。 基本面中性偏多。上周全球铜库存升至103.1万吨，其中境内铜小幅去库0.16万吨至33.2万吨，LME铜累库约0.45万吨至17.5万吨，COMEX铜延续大幅累库 1.37万吨至52.4万吨。 总体来看，市场风险偏好调整短时间内对铜价带来压力，但金属自身供应约束偏强，价格下跌空间或有限。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10万-10.45万元/吨。 策略上，节前区间为主，卖深虚看涨期权继续持有；中长线等待低点布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price is highly volatile due to market sentiment. After a sharp decline on Friday night, it's advisable to be cautious in the short - term. Consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. In the short - term, the price is strong because of global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak. With the cooling of speculative sentiment and easing of tariff expectations, the price may return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with the main contract supported at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - Recent trading is centered around macro and Indonesian ore RKAB quota. Short - term ore news has limited further driving force. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - The price is supported by domestic ore shortage and pressured by expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Focus on zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract supported around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals show some resilience in the off - season. With a loose macro environment and strengthened supervision, there is resistance to further price increases. The market has intensified long - short divergence. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Use short - term range trading [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices lack upward momentum due to loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term price range is limited. The ADC12 price is expected to continue high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Focus on raw material price changes, actual inflow of imported goods, and downstream pre - holiday inventory building [15]. Stainless Steel - Raw material news drives sentiment and strengthens cost support. Social inventory is steadily digested, but downstream demand in the off - season is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Pay attention to ore news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - The demand outlook has improved due to export - grabbing demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. Component production may increase, which is beneficial for inventory digestion. In the cooling period, it's advisable to wait and see, and focus on later production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with low - level oscillation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and refined tin imports increased by 127.19%. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% to 9549 tons, and social inventory increased by 36.07% to 10175 tons [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons. In November, imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20% to 32.09 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 74.48% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% to 48180 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.16% to 285732 tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons. In November, exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.08% to 11.84 million tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56664 tons in December [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08% to 73.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% to 48.8 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined price difference decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference increased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon average price increased slightly, and the basis of N - type material decreased by 23.52% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and monthly net exports increased significantly [20]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.1 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Report Core View Bullish Factors - The losses of smelters have widened, and the supply pressure has significantly decreased month-on-month, which is bullish [3]. - Although the import window is closed, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has been repaired, which is bullish [3]. Bearish Factors - The import volume of zinc ore has declined, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, which may lead to production cuts, which is bearish [3]. - The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, indicating a loose global supply, which is bearish [3]. Trading Advice - It is advisable to wait and see. The ratio of futures to spot has rebounded, and the export window may close again, so caution is needed [3]. Grouped Summaries Processing and End - demand - Included data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly output, net exports of galvanized sheets, net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets and zinc oxide, real estate development investment, sales and land transactions, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [4][7][10] Supply and Supply - side Profits - Included data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, zinc concentrate TC, monthly zinc ingot production, production profit and processing fee of refined zinc enterprises, raw material inventory days, and zinc inventory in exchanges [18][20][21] Futures and Spot Market Review - Included data on the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc price and the US dollar index, LME zinc premium, and the basis of zinc ingots [27][28][29]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply pressure has eased due to increased smelter maintenance and wider comprehensive smelting losses in December, while demand remains strong with continuous decline in social inventory and low zinc price valuation [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is an expected increase in future supply, causing a temporary peak in Shanghai zinc futures and limiting short - term upward momentum. Also, it has entered the seasonal consumption off - season with weak terminal orders and the impact of environmental inspections in the north [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Current trading is cautious. It is recommended to closely monitor the reduction in smelter production and changes in terminal consumption orders to assess short - term support [3]. Section Summaries 1. Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coils**: Data on market sentiment index, weekly inventory, steel mill weekly production, and net exports are presented, sourced from Wind [4]. - **Other Products**: Data on net exports of color - coated sheets, zinc oxide, and related real - estate and infrastructure investment indicators are provided, all sourced from Wind [7][10][15] 2. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Information on monthly import volume, TC (treatment charge), and raw material inventory days is given, sourced from Wind [18][20][24]. - **Zinc Ingot**: Data on monthly production, production + import volume, enterprise production profit, and various inventory data (LME, SHFE, etc.) are provided, sourced from Wind [21][22][25] 3. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trends**: Information on domestic and international zinc price trends, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index, and various premium and basis data are presented, sourced from Wind [27][29][31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].