瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锌市场周报 逢低采买小幅去库 预计锌价震荡企稳 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-1.02%，振幅1.29%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价 22275元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，国内外锌矿进口量上升，锌矿加 工费持续上升，叠加硫酸价格上涨明显，冶炼厂利润进一步修复，生产积极性增加；各地新增产能 陆续释放，叠加前期检修产能复产，供应增长有所加快。目前进口亏损继续扩大，进口锌流入量下 降。需求端，下游处于进入需求淡季，加工企业开工率同比有所下降。近期锌价下跌，下游逢低按 需采购为主，但整体成交有所改善，国内社库小幅下降，现货升水持稳；海外LME库存下降明显， LME现货升水下调，对国 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Lido Factors**: Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices, and China's apparent zinc consumption shows steady growth with strong demand [3] - **Negative Factors**: Supply growth is accelerating, with new capacity releases and restarts leading to oversupply, and a slight inventory build weakens the fundamental pattern [3] - **Trading Advisory View**: Institutions are bullish on SHFE zinc due to favorable inventory conditions [3] Summary by Directory Processing and End - User Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Market sentiment index, weekly inventory, weekly production, and net export data are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [5][6] - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: Net import data is provided seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [6] - **Color - Coated Sheet (Strip) and Zinc Oxide**: Net export data is shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [8][9][10] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and land transactions are presented as cumulative year - on - year and seasonal data from 2015 - 2025 [11][13][15] - **Infrastructure**: Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in various sectors from 2020 - 2024 are provided [17][18] Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume, TC, and raw material inventory days are presented seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [20][22][26] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly production, production + import volume, and inventory data in various forms (LME, SHFE, etc.) are shown seasonally from 2021 - 2025 [23][24][27] - **Refined Zinc Enterprises**: Production profit and processing fee data are provided from 2022 - 2024 [23] Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trends**: Domestic and international zinc price trends are presented from 2023 - 2025 [29] - **Volume and Open Interest**: Volume and open interest data of SHFE zinc futures are provided from 2023 - 2025 [30] - **Price Relationships**: Relationships between LME zinc price and US dollar index, LME zinc spreads, and zinc ingot basis data are presented [31][33][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - **Net Positions and Total Positions**: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - **Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - **Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc**: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]

Core View - Positive factors: Declines in zinc inventories at LME and SHFE support market sentiment, and China's zinc consumption is growing steadily with relatively stable demand [3] - Negative factors: Global zinc consumption is polarized, with a significant decline in Western countries, and zinc inventories remain high due to the slowdown of the world economy [3] - Trading advisory view: Futures institutions have divergent views, with some bullish on short - term macro sentiment and others bearish due to weak fundamentals of increasing supply and decreasing demand [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Steel Coils - Market sentiment index (weekly) data from 2023/06 to 2025 is presented [5] - Weekly inventory, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] - Steel mill weekly production, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] Net Exports and Imports - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [8][9] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [8][10] Real Estate - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data from 2015/12 to 2023/12 is shown [11][12] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data from 2020/12 to 2024/12 is presented [13][14] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [16][17] Infrastructure - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data from 2020/06 to 2024/12 is provided [18][19] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends from 2023/06 to 2025 are presented [22] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [23][26] Futures Market - SHFE zinc main contract trading volume and open interest data from 2023/06 to 2025 are given [22] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium and discount data from 2023/03 to 2025/03 is presented [24] - LME term structure data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [27] Basis - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023/03 to 2025/03 are provided [28][29] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [30][31] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [33] - Zinc concentrate TC data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [34][35] Zinc Ingot - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [36] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [37] Production and Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [38] - LME zinc total inventory seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [38] - SHFE zinc inventory futures seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [39][40] Profits - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fee data from 2022/06 to 2024/12 is provided [36]