锌周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 降息博弈加剧 锌价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价先抑后扬。宏观面，美国 9 月非农数据喜 忧参半，且 11 月非农数据延后公布。因缺乏经济指标指引， 美联储内部分歧较大，12 月降息博弈加剧。美元站稳 100 关 口，风险资产承压。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 基本面看，内外锌矿加工费延续回落，沪伦比价修复，进口 矿需求改善。世纪矿最新招标报价降至 50 美金/吨，加工费 预计仍有下行空间。受原料采购库存及利润下滑，炼厂检修 增多， ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供需相对平衡，价格短期震荡 强弱分析：中性 国内库存小幅去化 镀锌开工回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端减量。当下进口锌精矿亏损仍然较大，叠加年底北方矿山停产，后续国产 矿供应形势偏紧，国产矿TC预计进一步下调。原料供应紧缺背景下，已经有炼厂计划 减产来缓解压力；从最新排产数据来看，云南、江西等地炼厂常规年度检修，新疆地 区投产项目平稳生产，增减相抵后本月供应环比或小幅减量。 ◆ 消费端淡季深化。镀锌方面，市场需求逐步走弱，开工率低位，终端订单基 ...

| 铅锌日评20251117：沪铅上方承压；沪锌或有回调 | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 17,425.00 | -0.43% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 17,495.00 | -0.88% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | -70.00 | 80.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -23.09 | 1.17 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -86.20 | 8.20 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -50.00 | -30.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 10.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 37,346.00 | -39.18% | 期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but refinery operations fall short of expectations due to factors like raw materials, resulting in tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has broken through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. With good refinery profits and an open import window, attention should be paid to the improvement of supply, and there is a need to be vigilant against a potential sharp decline in lead prices [1] - For the zinc market, the macro sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making domestic TC difficult to increase. The zinc price has received some support and is fluctuating upwards. With the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the persistent LME 0 - 3 back structure, attention should be paid to overseas structural risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous day; the closing price of the main lead futures contract was 17,595 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic session) was 2,016.50 dollars/ton, up 0.22% [1] - The lead basis was - 295 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous lead futures contract was 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous lead futures contract was 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 79,514 lots, up 7.44%; the open interest was 83,846 lots, up 260.04%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.95, down 70.16% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 235,375 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 23,048 tons, down 2.89% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 67.57%, up 0.93 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 42.2%, up 7.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.36%, up 0.39 percentage points [1] - A secondary lead refinery in East China has decided to temporarily halt production, with only a small number of long - term orders to be fulfilled, and the resumption date is undetermined [1] Investment Strategy - A short position can be lightly established at high levels [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the closing price of the main zinc futures contract was 22,355 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic session) was 3,019.50 dollars/ton, down 0.10% [1] - The zinc basis was - 235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous zinc futures contract was - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous zinc futures contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 130,461 lots, down 20.62%; the open interest was 120,167 lots, down 3.67%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.09, down 17.60% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 65,849 tons, up 0.49% [1] Industry News - From October 17th to December 25th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 57.48%, down 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 53.13%, down 1.50 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.36%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - On October 23rd, the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 221,889 lots, an increase of 300 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export window for zinc is open, and there is a certain risk - reward ratio for internal - external reverse arbitrage, but it takes time to realize profits [3] - The domestic supply side of zinc faces continuous pressure, and the consumption peak season is coming to an end. This week, zinc prices rebounded significantly due to factors such as LME inventory depletion and strong external prices [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 22355, with a weekly increase of 2.48%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 22300, with a night - session decrease of 0.25%. The price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3019.5, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 130461, an increase of 41774 from the previous week, and the open interest was 120167, an increase of 42945 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 11517, an increase of 416 from the previous week, and the open interest was 223518, a decrease of 753 from the previous week [8] - **Spot - Futures Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed by 50.52, the bonded area zinc premium decreased by 45, and the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc, Guangdong 0 zinc, and Tianjin 0 zinc also changed [8] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined. Zinc ore inventory in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at high levels, while seven - region inventory and downstream raw material inventory have decreased [10][11] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a relatively low level [12][13] 3.2.3 Production - The smelting production rate has declined, and the downstream production rate is at a historically low level. The production rates of zinc concentrate, refined zinc, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide have all declined [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums are differentiated. Overseas premiums are flat this week, and LME CASH - 3M has risen to a historical high with sharp fluctuations [18][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc maintains a C - structure, but there are certain changes in the far - end [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a slight increase this week but still at a historically low level. Bonded area inventory has decreased, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][33] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [34] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical low, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees continue to decline. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant [37][38] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting production has decreased but is still at a historically high level. Smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historically high level, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [45] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The production rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by 147 steel mills, and the average price of Hunan secondary zinc oxide all show certain trends [48][49][50][51] 3.5 Zinc Demand - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The monthly downstream production rate has increased slightly, mostly at a historically low - to - medium level. The production rates and inventory levels of downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide all show certain characteristics [54][57] - The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [73] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon, and electricity all show certain trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [75][76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, with the export window opening, and the strength analysis is neutral to weak [2] - Zinc ingot inventory accumulation continues, and galvanizing start - up rate rebounds [3] - Domestic supply - side pressure remains high. In October, domestic zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and the start - up rate will remain high. The traditional peak season in the consumption end is approaching the end, and the zinc price is under downward pressure this week [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 21,815, with a weekly decline of 2.04%; the closing price of LmeS - zinc3 was 2,942.5, with a weekly decline of 1.41% [6] - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contract decreased compared with the previous week, while the open interest of LmeS - zinc3 increased [6] - In terms of inventory changes, SHFE zinc warehouse receipts, total inventory, and social inventory all increased, and LME zinc inventory also increased slightly [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished products are at a high level, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has declined [8] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a historical median level [10] 3.2.3 Start - up Rate - The start - up rate of zinc smelting has declined, and the start - up rate of downstream industries is at a historically low level [12] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have strengthened slightly, and overseas premiums are relatively stable [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc presents a C - structure [21] 3.3.3 Inventory - This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [26][32][35] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [36] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import concentrate processing fees continue to rise, and domestic concentrate processing fees have decreased [39] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has decreased but is at a historical high, smelter finished product inventory has decreased but is also at a historical high, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [47] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - The start - up rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is provided, along with prices of some recycled zinc - related products and waste steel consumption data [50][51][52] 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive, downstream monthly start - up rates have rebounded slightly and are mostly at historically low levels, and the real estate market is still at a low level while the power grid shows structural increments [56][58][71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are provided, along with the profitability of zinc smelters in some European countries [73][74][75]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 12, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei, Wang Zongyuan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of zinc is strong while demand is weak, and short - term macro guidance should be focused on [2][4] - The zinc market is neutral to weak [2] - During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and it is advisable to hold positive spread positions for the short - to medium - term (within a quarter) cautiously [4] Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,270, with a weekly increase of 1.32%; the night - session closing price was 22,110, with a decline of 0.72%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,984.5, with a decline of 1.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 174,778, an increase of 48,062 compared with the previous week; the open interest was 106,534, a decrease of 19,552. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 16,666, an increase of 4,006; the open interest was 220,239, a decrease of 2,463 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3,071 to 60,644; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 8,940 to 106,950; social inventory decreased by 200 to 150,200; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,850 to 37,950, and the proportion of cancelled warrants increased by 16.16% to 39.66%. The bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [7] 2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while visible zinc ingot inventories have declined [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same historical period; refined zinc operation rate has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates are at a historically low level [13][14] 3. Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot has been in a contango state. Overseas premiums have been relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][20] - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [23] - **Inventory**: This week, inventory continued to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore; LME total inventory has decreased slightly in the short - term and is at a historically low level in the same period; CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory has remained stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic long - position volume is at a medium level in the same historical period [38] 4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly; domestic zinc ore production is at a historical medium level; imported ore processing fees have continued to rise, while domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same historical period [41][42] - **Refined Zinc**: Zinc alloy production is at a high level; smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same historical period; smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same historical period. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [49][51] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Information on recycled zinc raw materials includes data on the operation rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, the daily consumption of scrap steel by steel mills, and the average price of secondary zinc oxide [55][56][57][58] 5. Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [61] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has decreased slightly, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same historical period [63][64] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [78] 6. Overseas Factors - Information on overseas factors includes European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon quota prices, electricity prices in various European countries, and the profitability of zinc smelters in various European countries [80][81][82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]