锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供强需弱延续，关注短期宏观指引 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现累库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC集中下调；节前内蒙古、河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，本周甘肃、湖南等 地区冶炼厂如期检修，从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供 应端压力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。镀锌方面，镀锌厂出口订单环比回暖，但可能不具备 持续性；压铸锌 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 季先飞 （首席分析师/联席行政负责人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 日期：2025年9月28日 | 数据 | | --- | Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锌：供应端压力不减，去库拐点有待进一步确认 强弱分析：中性偏弱 本周锌锭出现去库 镀锌开工小幅回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所 ◆ 国内供应端压力不减。当下进口锌精矿亏损不断扩大，对国产矿采购需求进一步提升， 国产矿TC承压；本周河南、广西地区企业恢复生产，10月江西、河南两家冶炼厂月中 存检修计划，但从最新排产数据来看，预计10月国内锌锭供应或继续增加，供应端压 力不减。 ◆ 消费端小幅改善，但相对有限。临近国庆假期，下游存在节前备库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc ore's domestic TC has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to increase, the low Shanghai-London ratio may significantly slow down the upward rate of the imported TC, alleviating the oversupply of zinc ore. China's zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the LME zinc ingot inventory overseas continues to decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continues to weaken. On the early morning of September 18th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, cooling the sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will operate weakly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.01% at 22,049 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 236,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME zinc 3S fell 2 to $2,919/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 213,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 21,990 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -65 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis of -80 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong spread of 15 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 111 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 315,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 647,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the total zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. The net import of zinc ingots in July was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of -46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.05%, with a raw material inventory of 14,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 367,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 53.78%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.11%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 5,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In July 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of -2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [42]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 88,200 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 7,000 tons [56]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, China's social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly to 158,500 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 52,500 tons, with an internal Shanghai basis of -65 yuan/ton and a spread of 5 yuan/ton between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 48,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 17,500 tons. The external cash - 3S contract basis was $24.27/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.51/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai-London ratio on the disk was 1.064, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,119.55 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption side of zinc has slightly improved, and the operating rate has rebounded, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The inventory accumulation rhythm continues, and the galvanizing operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Domestic zinc supply has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, smelters and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant. However, there will be some maintenance in September, leading to a month - on - month contraction in supply. The consumption side has slightly improved, but terminal demand is relatively weak. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a narrow range, and in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. For internal and external strategies, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,305, with a weekly increase of 0.68%, and the night - session closing price was 22,300, with a decrease of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,956, with a weekly increase of 3.45%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 103,603, a decrease of 2,073 from the previous week, and the position was 97,697, a decrease of 13,613 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 last Friday was 14,507, an increase of 3,814 from the previous week, and the position was 204,806, an increase of 5,836 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 5,133 to 45,905, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7,617 to 94,649. Social inventory increased by 5,300 to 154,200. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,525 to 50,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have increased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level. Smelting profits are stable and at a medium - high historical level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The zinc concentrate operating rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The refined zinc operating rate has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing operating rate has decreased, the die - casting zinc operating rate has increased, and the zinc oxide operating rate has increased, all at relatively low historical levels [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][21]. - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C structure [23]. - **Inventory**: Inventory accumulation continues, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [31][37][40]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic position is at a medium level in the same period in history [41]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level. Imported ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees remain flat. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [44][45]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [52][54]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Some data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste steel daily consumption of steel mills are provided, but no overall summary is given [57][58][59]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [63]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history [66][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Real estate is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [79]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are provided, such as the European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in some European countries, but no overall summary is given [81][82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized. The improvement of PMI data in Europe and the US and the dovish interpretation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, improving market risk appetite. Domestically, the A-share market continued to strengthen [3][10]. - Fundamentally, LME zinc inventories continued to decline, supporting the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc markets. Affected by concentrated arrivals, the zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations, and refineries had sufficient raw material inventories, supporting stable production. The imports of refined zinc decreased in July as expected, and it is expected to remain at the current level. The smelting end maintained high supply, while downstream consumption did not improve significantly. After the decline in zinc prices, downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in a slight decrease in inventories, but the sustainability remains to be seen [4][10]. - Overall, Powell's dovish stance boosted the rate - cut expectation and repaired market risk appetite. There were no new contradictions in the fundamentals. The decline in LME inventories and increased low - price purchases by domestic downstream provided support, but the high supply pressure from stable mining and smelting production suppressed zinc prices. Technically, the futures price found support near the previous low. In the short term, with the boost of macro - sentiment, zinc prices are expected to repair with a volatile and upward trend [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | August 15 | August 22 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22505 | 22275 | - 230 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2796.5 | 2805.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.05 | 7.94 | - 0.11 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76803 | 77838 | 1035 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 76325 | 68075 | - 8250 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 50 | - 40 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The decline of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) slowed down last week, and it stabilized and repaired in the second half of the week. The market was waiting for Powell's speech for rate - cut guidance, and the low - price purchases by downstream led to a slight decrease in weekly inventories, providing support. The contract finally closed at 22275 Yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.02%. It rose during the Friday night session [6]. - LME zinc fluctuated narrowly in the first half of the week. The market revised its rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar stabilized and rebounded, suppressing the LME zinc price. On Friday, the rate - cut expectation recovered, and the contract closed at 2805.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22220 - 22290 Yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 - 0 Yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. In different markets, the prices and discounts varied. In general, downstream low - price purchases were more frequent in the first half of the week, but with no obvious improvement in consumption, purchases decreased in the second half of the week, and traders' quotes remained stable, with the premium remaining weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 22, LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a weekly decrease of 8250 tons. SHFE inventory was 77838 tons, an increase of 1035 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, social inventory was 13.29 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons from August 14 and a decrease of 0.26 million tons from August 18. The decline in the zinc price center during the week boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decrease in inventories in many places [8]. - Macroeconomically, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4. The preliminary value of the Eurozone PMI in August rebounded from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. The US and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement, with the EU promising to cancel all US industrial product tariffs and plan to purchase US energy and AI chips worth billions of dollars. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal, but after Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3900 Yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.2 US dollars/dry ton to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton [12]. - According to customs data, in July, zinc concentrate imports were 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. In July, refined zinc imports were 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative refined zinc imports were 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. In July, galvanized sheet exports were 1.1975 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. In July, die - cast zinc alloy exports were 241.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61.21% [12][13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot and LME premiums, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, refined zinc net imports, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [15][16][17].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc smelting production enthusiasm is high, and the start - up rate remains at a high level, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The galvanizing start - up rate has marginally increased [3]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The supply is increasing while the demand is in a weak off - season pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. During the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The previous week's closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 22,505 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. The night - session closing price was 22,390 yuan, with a decline of 0.51%. The previous week's closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,796.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 83,222 lots, an increase of 1,794 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 76,347 lots, a decrease of 18,548 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 10,973 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 190,988 lots, a decrease of 2,970 lots [6]. - **Basis Changes**: LME zinc's cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 4.99 dollars to - 5.22 dollars. The bonded area zinc premium increased by 140 dollars to 140 dollars. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 10 yuan to - 50 yuan [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical median level. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is still at a historical high level. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, both at relatively low historical levels [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][22]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a stable and rising trend at a low level, and the inventory - to - open - interest ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decrease and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [30][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level. The increase rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high level [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered. Smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased, mostly at medium - to - low levels compared to the same period [54][57]. - The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented in the report, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is also analyzed [70 - 74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand improvement for zinc is limited, and the price shows a volatile performance. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The galvanizing start - up rate has a marginal increase [3][4]. - On the supply side, the supply is increasing. With the increase in zinc concentrate, the inventory of zinc concentrate in smelters and ports is relatively abundant, and the smelter profit is at a historical median. The supply pressure has increased, and the excess logic is gradually reflected in the social inventory accumulation. On the consumption side, it is still in the off - season, with insufficient new orders. Although there is some resilience in rigid demand, the demand improvement is very limited, and the industry start - up rate has little room to rise without more favorable policies. In the short term, the zinc price shows a volatile performance due to factors such as the increase in the inventory accumulation slope, the fading of domestic macro - sentiment, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For the internal - external strategy, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the domestic off - season, and the positive spread positions within the short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) can be continued to hold [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc main contract last week was 22,515, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,555, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2834, with a weekly increase of 3.83% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc main contract last Friday was 81,428, a decrease of 23,693 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 94,895, a decrease of 13,189 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 8402, a decrease of 5705 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 193,958, an increase of 4615 compared with the previous week [7]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 10.96 to - 0.23, an increase of 10.73. The bonded - area zinc premium changed from - 30 to 140, an increase of 170. The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc changed from 0 to - 35, a decrease of 35, etc. [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has increased and is at a median level in the same period in history. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, and both are at a medium - to - low level in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has a slight decline. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has an obvious change [17][23]. - **Price Difference**: The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at a low level shows a stable and rising trend, and the inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, with a short - term slight decrease and at a median level in the same period in history. The bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has a slight decline [31][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a median level in the same period in history [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: The import of zinc concentrate has declined. The domestic zinc ore production is at a median level in history. The recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and the smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: The smelting output has a marginal recovery. The smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy output is at a high level. The refined zinc import volume is at a historical median [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has a slight decline, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [54][57]. - The real estate is still at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price and the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price are presented, which may affect the zinc market through factors such as energy costs and production costs [71][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July 2025, zinc prices fluctuated upward. However, the domestic zinc industry data is weak, with zinc ore inventories increasing and downstream consumption weakening. Overseas, the market has lowered expectations for subsequent monetary easing, and LME zinc inventories have decreased, but the contango has shown a downward trend. Domestic black commodity sentiment has also declined. Overall, the previous factors supporting zinc prices have weakened, and the risk of a subsequent decline in zinc prices has increased [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: As of August 7, SHFE zinc weighted closed up 1.03% at 22,585 yuan/ton, with total positions decreasing by 59,000 to 209,700 lots. LME zinc 3S closed up 2.66% at $2,815.5/ton, with total positions decreasing by 15,500 to 192,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,510 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons, and SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [11]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $79/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 263,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 56.77%, 48.24%, and 56.13% respectively [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: Zinc ore inventories continued to accumulate, and TC increased rapidly. SMM estimated that domestic refined zinc production in August 2025 would be 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons. Downstream operating rates declined significantly last week, and short - term zinc consumption weakened. The risk of a decline in zinc prices is expected to rise [11]. 2. Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts, including the US fiscal revenue and expenditure, debt, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, but does not provide specific text analysis [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.68% and a month - on - month increase of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.0% [25]. - **Total Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.5% [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% and a month - on - month increase of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [33]. - **Total Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 56.77%, with raw material inventories of 13,000 tons and finished product inventories of 344,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloys was 48.24%, with raw material inventories of 9,000 tons and finished product inventories of 10,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.13%, with raw material inventories of 2,000 tons and finished product inventories of 6,000 tons [40]. - **Apparent Demand**: In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.7% [42]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [53]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [56]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventories continued to accumulate to 113,200 tons. SHFE zinc futures inventories were 13,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was -35 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was -30 yuan/ton [61]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc inventories were 89,200 tons, and LME zinc cancelled warrants were 43,100 tons. The cash - 3S contract basis was -$9.79/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$16.46/ton [64]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio was 1.122, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,638.03 yuan/ton [67]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long positions of the top 20 in SHFE zinc declined rapidly. The net long positions of investment funds in LME zinc increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bearish [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral to weak [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the logic of surplus is gradually becoming apparent. The short - term zinc price shows a downward trend in shock, and in the medium and long - term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended. During the off - season of domestic supply increase and demand decrease, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,320, with a weekly decline of 2.47%, and the closing price of the night session was 22,225, with a decline of 0.43%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,729.5, with a weekly decline of 3.52% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 105,121, a decrease of 46,965 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 108,084, a decrease of 21,144 compared with the previous week [7] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: The LME zinc cash - three - month spread was - 10.96 last Friday, a decrease of 9 compared with the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 1,693 to 14,982, SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 2,305 to 61,724, social inventory increased by 4,900 to 103,200, LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,950 to 100,825, and bonded area inventory increased by 1,000 to 7,000 [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have rebounded to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has rebounded but remains low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has recovered to a high level, and downstream capacity utilization is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate capacity utilization has declined and is at a medium level in the same period, refined zinc capacity utilization has declined and is at a high level in the same period, downstream galvanizing capacity utilization has increased, and die - casting zinc capacity utilization has decreased and is at a medium - to - low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot Premium**: Spot premium has rebounded slightly, overseas premium is relatively stable, Antwerp's premium has decreased slightly, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc inventory is showing a stable upward trend at a low level, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME total inventory is at a medium level in the same period, and the total global visible zinc inventory has declined slightly. Bonded area inventory is stable [33][38][41] - **Open Interest**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same period [42] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down, ore arrivals are at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period [45][46] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47][50] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Consumption Growth**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [56] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: Downstream monthly capacity utilization has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [59] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [62][65] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [71] 3.6 Overseas Factors - The report presents data on European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, as well as the profitability of overseas zinc smelters, but no specific conclusions are drawn [73][76]