Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are testing the lower support level. The supply pressure remains high, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong overall, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [1][4] Key Data Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium is -$35.03 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also declined, while their premiums increased. The SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 158,631 lots, a decrease of 83,562 lots, and positions were 135,071 lots, a decrease of 647 lots [2] Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 10, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price fell, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized [4] - **Supply**: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year [4] - **Consumption**: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs has not been felt. However, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 库存增加现货升水回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-29.28 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌60元/吨至22850元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌55元/吨至455元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌40元/吨至22770元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌35元/吨至375元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨 至22760元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌75元/吨至365元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-05沪锌主力合约开于22380元/吨，收于22340元/吨，较前一交易日下跌40元/吨，全天交易日成 交146875手，较前一交易日减少22590手，全天交易日持仓124586手，较前一交易日增加642手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22450元/吨，最低点达到22255元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.93万吨，较上周同期增加0.43万吨。截止2025-06-05，LME 锌库存为137150吨，较上一交易日增加875吨。 市场分 ...