新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-09 华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为163.00美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至23130元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至23010元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-08沪锌主力合约开于23190元/吨，收于23285元/吨，较前一交易日225元/吨，全天交易日成交 180254手，全天交易日持仓108666手，日内价格最高点达到23335元/吨，最低点达到22965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-08，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.60万吨，较上期变化-0.43万吨。截止2025-12-08，LME 锌库存为57750吨，较上一交易日变化2375吨。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 矿端TC持续下滑趋势不改，冶炼厂原料库 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are testing the lower support level. The supply pressure remains high, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong overall, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [1][4] Key Data Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium is -$35.03 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also declined, while their premiums increased. The SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 158,631 lots, a decrease of 83,562 lots, and positions were 135,071 lots, a decrease of 647 lots [2] Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 10, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price fell, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized [4] - **Supply**: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year [4] - **Consumption**: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs has not been felt. However, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot premium has weakened due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, while the supply pressure is clear and the upside of zinc prices is difficult to break through. Although low inventory supports zinc prices, there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$29.28 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 60 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 55 yuan/ton to 455 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 22,770 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 35 yuan/ton to 375 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 80 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 75 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 5, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,380 yuan/ton and closed at 22,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,875 lots, a decrease of 22,590 lots, and the open interest was 124,586 lots, an increase of 642 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,255 - 22,450 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 5, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, an increase of 875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The spot premium weakened due to inventory accumulation and weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The port inventory of ore and the raw material inventory of smelters are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are still high [4] - **Supply**: The supply growth expectation in June has returned to around 10%, and high - speed supply growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year, putting pressure on the upside of zinc prices [4] - **Consumption**: The impact of Sino - US tariffs on consumption has not yet appeared, and consumption is supported by pre - export rush and low inventory. However, there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [4]