新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-22 锌现货疲软与有色商品趋势向上的博弈 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-9.33美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日60元/吨至22230元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-40元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日80元/吨至22200元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日60元/吨至22210元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-21沪锌主力合约开于22300元/吨，收于22240元/吨，较前一交易日30元/吨，全天交易日成交85851 手，全天交易日持仓110426手，日内价格最高点达到22330元/吨，最低点达到22230元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-08-21，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.29万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-08-21，LME 锌库存为69375吨，较上一交易日变化-1875吨。 市场分析 有色商品整体呈现消费从淡季向旺季转化的迹象，商品价格偏强运行，锌价跟随重心上移，但现货市场更加疲弱， 现货贴水扩大。成本方面，进口TC仍在进一步上涨，冶炼厂原料库存充足， ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Accumulation of Inventory Continues, Macroeconomic Factors Affect Prices" - Report Date: August 10, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Jundong - Company: Zhongtai Futures [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The LME zinc price has risen due to the weakening of the US dollar and the warming of China's macro - economy, and the domestic zinc inventory is increasing [6][47] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: The LME zinc price has increased under the influence of a weaker US dollar and positive trends in China's macro - economy [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Multiple charts show the historical data of LME and SHFE zinc inventory and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [9] 2. Raw Material End - **Processing Fees**: The supply of zinc concentrate in the market is becoming looser, and the domestic concentrate processing fee (TC) remains stable at 3900 yuan/metal ton [14] - **Zinc Concentrate开工率**: Charts present the historical data of zinc concentrate new sample开工率, large - scale, small - scale and medium - scale mine开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [17] - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: Charts show the historical data of global zinc concentrate monthly output, SMM zinc concentrate new sample output, zinc concentrate monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [19] - **Refined Zinc Monthly Output**: Charts display the historical data of SMM zinc ingot monthly output and its predicted value from 2020 - 2025 [22] - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for raw material procurement [23] 3. Smelting End - **Refined Zinc Import**: Charts show the historical data of refined zinc monthly import volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [28] - **Refined Zinc开工**: The profit margin of smelters is continuously expanding, benefiting from the increase in TC and the increase in by - product sulfuric acid revenue, and the smelting profit has improved significantly compared with the previous period [29] - **Refined Zinc Output**: Some enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, and the overall开工率 has increased due to the improved processing economy of imported ores [32] 4. Demand End - **Refined Zinc Export**: Charts show the historical data of China's refined zinc monthly export volume and its cumulative value from 2020 - 2025 [37] - **Downstream Inventory**: Charts present the historical data of SMM downstream zinc processing material enterprise monthly raw material inventory, smelter zinc alloy monthly finished product inventory, smelter zinc ingot monthly finished product inventory, smelter monthly finished product inventory days and SMM refined zinc smelter monthly finished product inventory from 2020 - 2025 [39] - **Downstream Output and开工率**: July - August is the traditional consumption off - season, and terminal orders are weak. Charts show the historical data of SMM galvanized weekly output, SMM galvanized weekly开工率, SMM die - casting weekly output, SMM die - casting weekly开工率, SMM zinc oxide weekly output and SMM zinc oxide weekly开工率 from 2020 - 2025 [41][42] - **Product Prices**: Charts show the historical data of Zamak5 zinc alloy average price, Zamak3 zinc alloy average price, zinc oxide ≥99.7% average price and hot - dip galvanized national average price from 2020 - 2025 [43] 5. Zinc Inventory - As of August 7, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 113,200 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with July 31 and an increase of 5,900 tons compared with August 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory [47] - Charts show the historical data of SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin three - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, SMM zinc ingot bonded area weekly inventory, SMM refined zinc smelter sample enterprise weekly finished product inventory (factory warehouse inventory and in - transit inventory) from 2020 - 2025 [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - A trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. After the reaction of macro - bullish factors, the deviation from the fundamentals may pull the zinc price back, and attention should be paid to changes in social inventory [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium was -$21.64 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan per ton to 22,270 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined by 140 yuan per ton to 22,200 yuan per ton, with the premium unchanged at 20 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,340 yuan per ton and closed at 22,090 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 160,506 lots, an increase of 6,935 lots, and the open interest was 126,532 lots, a decrease of 1,468 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,040 - 22,360 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 89,100 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 110,600 tons, a decrease of 1,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The absolute price declined, increasing downstream point - pricing enthusiasm and improving market transactions, but the spot premium did not improve significantly. After the absolute price rose, spot market transactions became more sluggish, and the spot premium dropped rapidly [4] - **Supply**: In June, supply increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The expected output in July remains as high as 590,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The impact of the smelting strike in Peru overseas has been resolved [4] - **Inventory**: The increase in social inventory has widened, and a trend of inventory accumulation may have formed. The finished product inventory of smelters and zinc alloy inventory have increased significantly, the alloy operating rate has started to decline, and a negative feedback from invisible inventory may occur [4] - **Cost**: The TC at the mine end has further increased, expanding smelting profits and further boosting smelting enthusiasm, resulting in continuous supply pressure [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down due to the large amount of low - price purchases by enterprises in the early stage. The domestic social inventory has rebounded, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - side is strong at the high position of positions. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go short lightly on rallies [3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 21,905 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 135 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,660 dollars/ton, up 33.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 280,455 lots, down 13,538 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 791 lots, up 1,952 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 9,788 tons, down 178 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,466 tons, down 1,546 tons; the LME inventory is 130,225 tons, down 775 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,690 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 24.57 dollars/ton, down 1.62 dollars; the factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 57,100 tons, up 800 tons; the monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, up 48.3938 million square meters; the housing completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, up 25.8758 million square meters; the automobile production is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 18.43%, up 2.38 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.22%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.16%, down 0.3 percentage points [3] Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; the housing construction area was 6.2502 trillion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; the new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%; the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 353.15 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 340.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%; at the end of May, the unsold commercial housing area was 774.27 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 7.15 million square meters. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. In the first five months, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end the hostility, weakening the market risk - aversion sentiment [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]