新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 海内外现货升水维持利多表现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为135.09美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-60元/吨至22380元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22320元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24沪锌主力合约开于22390元/吨，收于22390元/吨，较前一交易日-95元/吨，全天交易日成交 104516手，全天交易日持仓96310手，日内价格最高点达到22445元/吨，最低点达到22245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.10万吨，较上期变化-0.17万吨。截止2025-11-24，LME 锌库存为47425吨，较上一交易日变化100吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-20 国内现货贴水明显修复 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为129.76美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化100元/吨至22420元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日90元/吨至22360元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至22380元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-19沪锌主力合约开于22360元/吨，收于22420元/吨，较前一交易日70元/吨，全天交易日成交91247 手，全天交易日持仓67487手，日内价格最高点达到22475元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-19，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.66万吨，较上期变化-0.13万吨。截止2025-11-19，LME 锌库存为45075吨，较上一交易日变化1550吨。 市场分析 海外库存增加，但现货升水依旧高位，国内现货贴水快速修复，社会库存重心有望持续下滑，锌绝对价格回落后， 下游对价格的接受度明显提升。基本面方面，11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].