新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 海内外现货升水维持利多表现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为135.09美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-60元/吨至22380元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22320元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-35元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-60元/吨至22340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-24沪锌主力合约开于22390元/吨，收于22390元/吨，较前一交易日-95元/吨，全天交易日成交 104516手，全天交易日持仓96310手，日内价格最高点达到22445元/吨，最低点达到22245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-24，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.10万吨，较上期变化-0.17万吨。截止2025-11-24，LME 锌库存为47425吨，较上一交易日变化100吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 国内社会库存重心持续下移 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为152.14美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化10元/吨至22430元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水30元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22370元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日10元/吨至22390元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-20沪锌主力合约开于22455元/吨，收于22380元/吨，较前一交易日-30元/吨，全天交易日成交54719 手，全天交易日持仓61797手，日内价格最高点达到22495元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-20，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.27万吨，较上期变化-0.39万吨。截止2025-11-20，LME 锌库存为46075吨，较上一交易日变化1000吨。 市场分析 基本面方面，11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，冶炼厂积极采购内外矿，明年1季度 进口TC指导价格环比回落，短期TC仍不改回落趋势。冶炼端开始面临压力，随 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-13 沪锌下方支撑明确 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为117.04美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至22610元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22580元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-75元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-50元/吨至22570元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-85元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-12沪锌主力合约开于22565元/吨，收于22680元/吨，较前一交易日-40元/吨，全天交易日成交71426 手，全天交易日持仓105905手，日内价格最高点达到22695元/吨，最低点达到22565元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-11-12，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.96万吨，较上期变化0.09万吨。截止2025-11-12，LME 锌库存为35875吨，较上一交易日变化575吨。 市场分析 11月国内矿TC进一步大幅度走低，海外矿TC进一步同步下调，冶炼厂积极采购内外矿，明年1季度进口TC指导价 格环比回落，短期TC仍不改回落趋势。冶炼端开始面临压力，随着TC的大幅度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - **Cost**: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. In the zinc spot market, the discount has slightly widened, making it difficult for traders to support prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is hard to mobilize. With the continuous rise of imported TC, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is still increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the decline in zinc prices has limited impact on smelting profit, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs to be watched out for [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - 2.95 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 160 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22290 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22220 yuan/ton, closed at 22395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 131380 lots, and the position was 105259 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22200 yuan/ton [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 13.85 million tons, a change of 0.56 million tons from the previous period. As of August 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a change of - 1300 tons from the previous trading day [4] 3.2 Market Analysis - Macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, discounts widen slightly, and traders struggle to support prices. The imported TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw materials, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit is over 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on it, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, domestic inventory is expected to accumulate. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure, but overseas inventory impact needs attention [5] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]