1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 库存小幅增加淡季开始显现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-8.41美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-820元/吨至24970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至25000元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至24920元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-02沪锌主力合约开于25735元/吨，收于24515元/吨，较前一交易日-1805元/吨，全天交易日成交 446017手，全天交易日持仓91209手，日内价格最高点达到25905元/吨，最低点达到24245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-02，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化0.86万吨。截止2026-02-02，LME 锌库存为109100吨，较上一交易日变化-900吨。 市场分析 消费进入淡季表现确认，绝对价格的回落对下游采购刺激性有限，华东华南贴水小幅修复，天津地区贴水继续扩 大。社会库存开始进入累库初期，累库幅度相对较缓，库存绝对值依 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 基本面数据表现坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-26.43美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化80元/吨至24760元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水35元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24820元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水30元/吨；天 津锌现货价较前一交易日70元/吨至24690元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-27沪锌主力合约开于25280元/吨，收于24950元/吨，较前一交易日190元/吨，全天交易日成交 255674手，全天交易日持仓118946手，日内价格最高点达到25280元/吨，最低点达到24710元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-27，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.68万吨，较上期变化-0.20万吨。截止2026-01-27，LME 锌库存为110550吨，较上一交易日变化-775吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供给端增 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - Micro data is relatively stable, social inventory accumulation is slow, and spot market supply pressure is low [1][5] - Zinc price valuation is still low, and downstream acceptance of price is relatively good [5] - Short - term market sentiment is weak, and zinc price shows a correction trend [5] - TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting faces losses, so supply - side pressure is unlikely to appear [5] - Long - term consumption is still promising, and inventory pressure is not high [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$41.66/ton [2] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24340 yuan/ton, spot premium: 40 yuan/ton [2] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: -70 yuan/ton to 24350 yuan/ton, spot premium: 5 yuan/ton [2] - Tianjin zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24280 yuan/ton, spot premium: -20 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 20, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24370 yuan/ton, closed at 24410 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day), with trading volume of 143056 lots and positions of 125893 lots. The highest price was 24515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24275 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 12.20 million tons, a change of 0.35 million tons from the previous period [4] - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, LME zinc inventory: 112300 tons, a change of 7250 tons from the previous trading day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption is entering the traditional off - season with a slowdown in downstream operating rates, but the accumulation of social inventory is slow. Zinc prices are still undervalued, and downstream acceptance of prices is relatively good with stable spot premiums. The suspension of KZ and YP zinc delivery business on the LME has limited impact on the current inventory structure assessment, and delivery qualifications can be restored after re - approval, but the risk of source tracing needs attention. TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting is still facing losses. Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, and zinc prices are still undervalued [4] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$34.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥40 per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by ￥390 per ton to ￥24,420 per ton, with a spot premium of ￥0 per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by ￥380 per ton to ￥24,360 per ton, with a spot premium of -￥20 per ton [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On January 19, 2026, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at ￥24,560 per ton, closed at ￥24,450 per ton, down ￥475 per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 224,507 lots, and the open interest was 128,677 lots. The highest price during the day was ￥24,600 per ton, and the lowest was ￥24,335 per ton [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 122,000 tons, a change of 3,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,050 tons, a change of - 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm persists. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - Supply pressure is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$30.00 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 5 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price fell by 150 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,180 yuan/ton, closed at 23,380 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,502 lots, and the open interest was 93,470 lots. The highest price was 23,435 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,130 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are expected to face pressure due to supply-side pressure and the potential disappointment of consumption peak season expectations, but may show a relatively weak trend even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, with caution needed regarding overseas inventory impacts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 190 yuan/ton to 23,030 yuan/ton, with a premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 23,010 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 25, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,085 yuan/ton, closed at 23,065 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,213 lots, and the open interest was 93,322 lots. The intraday high was 23,095 yuan/ton, and the low was 22,910 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventory is increasing and is about to exceed the average level of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build-up is expected to continue, and the current inventory build-up is accelerating. If the consumption peak season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market shows positive fundamentals. With the significant decline in TC, the smelting comprehensive profit is severely compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. Although LME inventory increases, the warrant inventory remains low, and the overseas premium stays high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and most micro - data has shifted from negative to positive [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.14 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,430 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,370 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,455 yuan per ton, closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,719 lots, and the position was 61,797 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 152,700 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 46,075 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In November, domestic zinc concentrate TC decreased significantly, and overseas TC also declined. Smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased. The short - term TC decline trend continues. The smelting end is under pressure, with reduced comprehensive profits and even losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure [5]. - **Market Situation**: Although LME inventory increased, the warrant inventory is still low, and the warrant risk remains. The overseas premium is high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and the spot discount has been quickly repaired after the zinc price correction [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Carry trade in the same commodity across different delivery months [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]