新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 下游采购积极性难调动 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-2.95美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至22310元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-40元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日160元/吨至22310元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-70元/吨；天津 锌现货价较前一交易日110元/吨至22290元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-60元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-25沪锌主力合约开于22220元/吨，收于22395元/吨，较前一交易日150元/吨，全天交易日成交 131380手，全天交易日持仓105259手，日内价格最高点达到22465元/吨，最低点达到22200元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-08-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为13.85万吨，较上期变化0.56万吨。截止2025-08-25，LME 锌库存为68075吨，较上一交易日变化-1300吨。 市场分析 当下宏观情绪向好，有色商品偏强走势。锌现货市场方面，贴水小幅扩大，贸易商难挺价，下游采购积极性难调 动。成本方面，进口TC仍在进一步上涨，普矿报价达到110美元/吨，冶炼厂原料 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 库存方面：截至2025-08-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为10.73万吨，较上期变化0.41万吨。截止2025-08-06，LME 锌库存为89225吨，较上一交易日变化-3050吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游原料储备充足采购意愿不强，市场成交冷清，整体升贴水以稳中偏弱走势为主。供应端，7月 中国锌锭产量60.28万吨，同比增加23%，8月预计产量62万吨，同比增速将达到25%，供给压力持续增加。成本端， 海外矿端未有干扰，国产矿TC上涨100元/吨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续。消费端，下游开工率水平表现出 相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应端的高增长，社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。且当 前正值消费淡季，叠加供给压力，锌价压力较大。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 现货升贴水难有好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-13.16美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22330元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-20元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22290元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-60元/吨；天 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, zinc prices showed weak performance, influenced by the fading anti - price - cutting sentiment, and returned to the pre - anti - price - cutting sentiment trading range. In the short term, due to the fading anti - low - price competition sentiment, zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations, and overall, it is advisable to sell on rallies. The overall view is that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Zinc prices were weak this week, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22,320 yuan per ton, down 2.85%; LME zinc closed at 2,727 dollars per ton, down 4.72%. Domestic seven - location zinc ingot inventory reached 103,200 tons, still at a low level in recent years; LME zinc inventory decreased to 100,825 tons. This week, 68,700 tons of zinc concentrates arrived at the port [2][4]. 2. Industrial Performance - Nexa announced that the first phase of its Cerro Pasco integration project has completed key milestones. The second phase is progressing as planned, which is expected to extend the lifespan of two mines by over ten years and increase profit margins. The procurement and installation of the fourth tailings filter at Aripuanã are expected to be completed in the second half of 2025, and full - scale production is expected to start in the first half of 2026. In Q2 2025, the company's zinc concentrate production reached 74,000 metal tons, a 9% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 12% decrease year - on - year. In the second quarter, the total sales volume of refined zinc and zinc oxide reached 145,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous quarter, and the total output was 139,000 tons, a 5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year, in line with the annual sales guidance of 560,000 - 590,000 tons [3]. 3. Core Logic - **Supply Side**: There were no significant changes in the supply side this week. In the mining sector, zinc ore imports declined in June, but domestic zinc ore supply remained strong both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the smelting sector, the smelter's operating rate remained strong, with a strong willingness to resume production. The treatment charge (TC) continued to rise, and profit recovery was stable [4]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream operating rate mainly decreased week - on - week, affected by the off - season of consumption and the high zinc prices at the beginning of the week, showing a weak performance [4]. - **Inventory**: Affected by high zinc prices, domestic inventory increased and has now exceeded 100,000 tons, showing a short - term upward trend in a volatile manner. Meanwhile, LME zinc inventory is at a low level in recent years, providing support for the downside of zinc prices [4]. 4. Zinc Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract had a closing price of 22,320 yuan per ton, a trading volume of 105,121 lots, and an open interest of 108,084 lots. LME zinc had a closing price of 2,727 dollars per ton, with an open interest of 282,405.52 lots [4]. - **Spot Data**: The price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,300 yuan per ton, down 2.06%; the price of 1 zinc ingot was 22,230 yuan per ton, down 2.07%. There were also data on various locations' zinc ingot premiums and discounts and LME zinc premiums and discounts [15]. 5. Zinc Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: Shanghai inventory was 38,000 tons, up 2.43%; Tianjin inventory was 40,100 tons, down 4.52%; seven - location inventory was 103,200 tons, down 0.48%; zinc concentrate port inventory was 263,000 tons, down 4.36%; Shanghai Zinc delivery warehouse inventory was 61,724 tons, up 3.88% [25]. - **LME Inventory**: Total LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, down 12.91%; registered LME zinc warrants were 57,075 tons, down 6.40% [25]. 6. Zinc Element Supply - Demand Balance - In June 2025, the supply - demand balance of zinc concentrates was - 2,000 metal tons, a 96.5% decrease year - on - year and a 103.85% decrease month - on - month; the supply - demand balance of refined zinc was 24,000 tons, a 2500.00% decrease year - on - year and a 211.11% decrease month - on - month [41]. 7. Downstream Consumption - The downstream operating rates of galvanizing, zinc oxide, and die - casting zinc alloys were 56.77% (down 2.65 percentage points), 56.13% (up 0.14 percentage points), and 48.24% (down 2.79 percentage points) respectively [44].

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The absolute price of zinc has declined, and the spot market trading has improved. However, the spot premium remains weak. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory is showing a cumulative trend. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$2.69/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -60 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -40 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On July 31, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,625 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,660 lots, and the open interest was 110,481 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,295 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,200 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The spot market trading has improved as downstream buyers purchase at low prices, but the spot premium remains weak. The domestic ore tender price for the new month is not settled, and the imported ore TC is rising, with the highest offer reaching $85/ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for ores, so the TC is expected to continue rising. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the consumption growth is lower than the supply growth, and the social inventory is accumulating, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. The zinc price is under pressure due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 锌海外库存持续增加 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-9.95 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌100元/吨至22050元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于30元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至21970元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-50元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至 22000元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-20元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-16沪锌主力合约开于22040元/吨，收于22045元/吨，较前一交易日下跌60元/吨，全天交易日成 交89469手，较前一交易日减少29569手，全天交易日持仓78311手，较前一交易日减少5993手，日内价格震荡，最 高点达到22065元/吨，最低点达到21965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.31万吨，较上周同期增加0.4万吨。截止2025-07-16，LME 锌库存为121350吨，较上一交易日增加2750吨。 市场分析 现货市场 ...

| | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22240 | 0.88% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2710 | 1.10% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 168109 | 9578 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11290 | -3422 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 135638 | 5773 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 210940 | -1261 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 75 | -15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -20.41 | 5.59 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 145 | -35 | 进口提单溢价（美 | 135 | 0 | | （元/吨） | | | 元/吨） | | | | 天津 0# 锌升贴水 | 5 | -25 | 锌锭现货进口盈亏 | -876. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-27 社会库存持续小幅去化 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-21.55 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨至22570元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至390元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌150元/吨至22550 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨20元/吨至370元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌130元 /吨至22570元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨40元/吨至390元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-26沪锌主力合约开于22155元/吨，收于22185元/吨，较前一交易日下跌115元/吨，全天交易日 成交142739手，较前一交易日增加15550手，全天交易日持仓118520手，较前一交易日增加4451手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22300元/吨，最低点达到22085元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-26，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.88万吨，较上周同期减少-0.5万吨。截止2025-05-23，LME 锌库存为153500吨，较上一交易日减少2725 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot market premium in most regions is weakening, and downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. There is still profit in smelting, and supply pressure persists. Consumption in May may face challenges, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$29.83/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,700 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 25 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,530 yuan/ton and closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,502 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots, and the position was 67,175 lots, a decrease of 9,455 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,510 - 22,675 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 21, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - In the spot market, inventories in Guangdong are continuously declining, while premiums in other regions are weakening. After the rebound of absolute prices, downstream buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and make inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand. Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. Although the increase in TC is limited, smelting still has profits, and the supply pressure persists. Domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and domestic ore TC is still rising. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a sequential decline in consumption after May [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Russian mine of Zijin plans to shut down in June, causing the futures price to remain strong, while the spot market is more sluggish, with imports having a large impact and spot premiums further declining. The fundamental data shows a weak trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If this trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open up. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift towards a looser supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. The consumption side may face challenges in May, as the window for rush exports is approaching the end and there is an over - consumption situation, so consumption may weaken month - on - month after May. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$27.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 260 yuan/ton to 22,890 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 55 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On May 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,265 yuan/ton and closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,160 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 85,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day. [2]