现货偏少升水偏强 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-30.00美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-140元/吨至23300元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水120元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-180元/吨至23200元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至23190元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-30沪锌主力合约开于23180元/吨，收于23380元/吨，较前一交易日155元/吨，全天交易日成交 148502手，全天交易日持仓93470手，日内价格最高点达到23435元/吨，最低点达到23130元/吨。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 库存方面：截至2025-12-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.19万吨，较上期变化-0.28万吨。截止2025-12-30，LME 锌库存为106325吨，较上一交易日变化-225吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 消费维持强势表现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.26美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-180元/吨至23080元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水80元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-190元/吨至23030元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-160元/吨至23010元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水10元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-25沪锌主力合约开于23085元/吨，收于23065元/吨，较前一交易日-130元/吨，全天交易日成交 125213手，全天交易日持仓93322手，日内价格最高点达到23095元/吨，最低点达到22910元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.47万吨，较上期变化-0.97万吨。截止2025-12-25，LME 锌库存为106875吨，较上一交易日变化7900吨。 市场分析 锌价回落现货市场存在补库行为，但社会库存增加，即将超过过去五年同期水平，现货流通性好转，仍以谨慎采 购为主。成本端，国产矿进口矿TC持续上涨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续，供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices have fallen and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The cost of domestic and imported zinc concentrates (TC) is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $135.09 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,380 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 35 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan, with a discount of 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened and closed at 22,390 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,516 lots, and the open interest was 96,310 lots. The highest price was 22,445 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 151,000 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 47,425 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are increasing and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is rising, leading to higher smelting profits and continuous smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market shows positive fundamentals. With the significant decline in TC, the smelting comprehensive profit is severely compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. Although LME inventory increases, the warrant inventory remains low, and the overseas premium stays high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and most micro - data has shifted from negative to positive [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.14 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,430 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 30 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,370 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,455 yuan per ton, closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 54,719 lots, and the position was 61,797 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,380 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 152,700 tons, down 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 46,075 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In November, domestic zinc concentrate TC decreased significantly, and overseas TC also declined. Smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased. The short - term TC decline trend continues. The smelting end is under pressure, with reduced comprehensive profits and even losses in high - cost areas, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure [5]. - **Market Situation**: Although LME inventory increased, the warrant inventory is still low, and the warrant risk remains. The overseas premium is high. The unexpected seasonal decline of domestic social inventory supports zinc prices, and the spot discount has been quickly repaired after the zinc price correction [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Carry trade in the same commodity across different delivery months [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - The support for Shanghai zinc is clear. The TC of domestic and overseas zinc mines has decreased, squeezing the smelting profit, suppressing smelting enthusiasm, and reducing supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with micro - data turning from bearish to bullish under a positive macro - background [1][4] Key Points by Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $117.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 75 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,565 yuan/ton and closed at 22,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 71,426 lots, and the position was 105,905 lots. The highest price was 22,695 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,565 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 35,875 tons, up 575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In November, domestic and overseas zinc mine TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. Overseas warehouse - receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for both unilateral and arbitrage strategies is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Overseas zinc inventory reduction trend remains unchanged; domestic supply pressure persists, and long - term inventory accumulation is expected. However, overseas factors support zinc prices, and attention should be paid to post - balance changes [1][5] Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $39.84 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 320 yuan/ton to 21,630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,660 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 330 yuan/ton to 21,620 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,930 yuan/ton, closed at 21,800 yuan/ton (down 235 yuan/ton from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 180,545 lots and a position of 142,400 lots. The highest price was 21,950 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,665 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 41,950 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - During the long holiday, downstream开工率 decreased. Before the holiday, with the decline of absolute prices, downstream actively purchased, and the spot discount was repaired, especially in Guangdong. The supply pressure in China remains. The TC of domestic zinc mines in October continued to decline, while the TC of imported zinc mines was as high as $140 per ton. The smelting profit of the industry was maintained, and the short - term replenishment behavior could not change the long - term inventory accumulation expectation. Overseas inventory problems remained unresolved, the export window was not opened, and the hawkish attitude overseas supported the zinc price [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Short allocation choice among non - ferrous metal varieties. [6] 2. Report's Core View - With the decline of the absolute price, downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly recovered, but supply remains abundant and social inventory continues to rise. The increase in import TC, sufficient raw material inventory of smelters, and high smelting profits maintain smelting enthusiasm, keeping supply pressure unchanged. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains, and if the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$7.60 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,130 yuan/ton, with a premium of -30 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,080 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 140 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 28, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 22,210 yuan/ton, closes at 22,170 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 156,406 lots, and the open interest is 114,628 lots. The highest price is 22,220 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 22,085 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 144,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory is 58,000 tons, a decrease of 2,025 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price drops, downstream procurement enthusiasm slightly recovers, and the spot discount also slightly recovers. However, supply is still sufficient, and social inventory continues to climb. [5] - **Cost**: Import TC continues to rise, with the common ore price reaching $110 per ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - **Smelting**: With by - product benefits, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. The decline in zinc prices has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. [5] - **Consumption**: Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face great pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. In the zinc spot market, the discount has slightly widened, making it difficult for traders to support prices, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is hard to mobilize. With the continuous rise of imported TC, smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is still increasing. The smelting profit remains above 1000 yuan/ton, and the decline in zinc prices has limited impact on smelting profit, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the expectation of the peak consumption season fails, zinc prices will face greater pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs to be watched out for [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - 2.95 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 160 yuan/ton to 22310 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22290 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22220 yuan/ton, closed at 22395 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 131380 lots, and the position was 105259 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22200 yuan/ton [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 13.85 million tons, a change of 0.56 million tons from the previous period. As of August 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a change of - 1300 tons from the previous trading day [4] 3.2 Market Analysis - Macro - sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, discounts widen slightly, and traders struggle to support prices. The imported TC is rising, smelters have sufficient raw materials, and port inventory is increasing. The smelting profit is over 1000 yuan/ton, and zinc price decline has little impact on it, so smelting enthusiasm remains. Even in the peak consumption season, domestic inventory is expected to accumulate. If the peak - season expectation fails, zinc prices will face pressure, but overseas inventory impact needs attention [5] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, with a bias towards short positions; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].